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What are the odds of getting THAT GUY via draft?

ONE LOVE said:
Yes.

Now can you answer mine?

Can we win a Chip without THAT GUY?
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Got, and therefore you must believe that waiving Lauri is a positive move.

The answer to your follow up question is probably not, but I never made that claim and it is not the same as the point I made. The point I made is they are not the same and you continue to prove this point by asking this question.
 
KqWIN said:
Got, and therefore you must believe that waiving Lauri is a positive move.

The answer to your follow up question is probably not, but I never made that claim and it is not the same as the point I made. The point I made is they are not the same and you continue to prove this point by asking this question.
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You can get THAT GUY without waiving Lauri.. c’mon now.. put your thinking cap on bro.. lol..
 
idiot said:
Yes, vital pieces, but not first fiddles (in my view). The difference between THAT GUY and really important guys. If we open it up to this level of player, then I think we're saying essentially that Donovan or Rudy would have been enough to have been the centerpiece of a championship team. I don't think they were.
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Championships still come down to the 2nd and 3rd pieces around the 1st guy as well as quality role players. Don and Rudy could have been the cornerstone pieces of a championship team if DL and Zanik hadn't screwed up so badly over the last few years with free agents and drafting. Hell just Desmond Bane alone could have been the difference between a championship team the last few years. Can you imagine if during the 2020 offseason if instead of Favors and Udoka we went with Portis and Bane. Portis made so much sense for us since we needed a stretch big and the same goes with Bane. Even McDaniels instead of Bane could have changed things as well.
 
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Without the tools though, it normally doesn't happen. There are a few guys who are one-of-a-kind, like say, Jokic or maybe Luka. If I were drafting, unless I thought someone was just over-the-top special, I'd pick from the main archetypes. But my standards for THAT GUY might be pretty high--probably 1st Team All NBA.

In the last draft, the only guy I saw as potentially being THAT GUY was probably Paolo.
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Pfffft. . . Walker Kessler covers all 3 of your "archetypes" and can coach some too. . .
 
ONE LOVE said:
You missed out on quite a few players my man. Paul Pierce? Kyrie? Pau? Ray Allen?

Those players might not be able to single-handedly win it but they’re vital piece.
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But by definition it means they aren't THAT GUY. Since he is going for clear #1's on finals-worthy teams he can't include clear #2's in the list and most of those are 2's.
 
sip said:
Championships still come down to the 2nd and 3rd pieces around the 1st guy as well as quality role players. Don and Rudy could have been the cornerstone pieces of a championship team if DL and Zanik hadn't screwed up so badly over the last few years with free agents and drafting. Hell just Desmond Bane alone could have been the difference between a championship team the last few years. Can you imagine if during the 2020 offseason if instead of Favors and Udoka we went with Portis and Bane. Portis made so much sense for us since we needed a stretch big and the same goes with Bane. Even McDaniels instead of Bane could have changed things as well.
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It isn't even that hard. Imagine that Hayward doesn't leave and we still add Mitchell. Or the Jazz don't trade up for Burke an just use their picks on Giannis and Rudy (there was a lot of smoke that the Jazz were looking that direction.) Both of those things, that were entirely plausible, put us deep into contention.

The three things you can absolutely control are:

1. Hire a great coach.
2. Draft well, don't waste picks wherever they might fall.
3. Don't cripple yourself with bad contracts. Ideally your players should outperform their contracts, especially your max players.

You do those things you put yourself in the position to sieze upon luck when it shows its face.
 
LogGrad98 said:
But by definition it means they aren't THAT GUY. Since he is going for clear #1's on finals-worthy teams he can't include clear #2's in the list and most of those are 2's.
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His original list has tons of number 2's throughout there career.
 
sip said:
His original list has tons of number 2's throughout there career.
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So it needs to be pared down, not added to. Good point.
 
framer said:
It isn't even that hard. Imagine that Hayward doesn't leave and we still add Mitchell. Or the Jazz don't trade up for Burke an just use their picks on Giannis and Rudy (there was a lot of smoke that the Jazz were looking that direction.) Both of those things, that were entirely plausible, put us deep into contention.

The three things you can absolutely control are:

1. Hire a great coach.
2. Draft well, don't waste picks wherever they might fall.
3. Don't cripple yourself with bad contracts. Ideally your players should outperform their contracts, especially your max players.

You do those things you put yourself in the position to sieze upon luck when it shows its face.
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If we could have had Mitchell for one year with Hayward and I don't think there is anyway Hayward leaves and we may have a banner right now. The same thing goes for drafting Booker instead of Lyles. I don't think Hayward leaves with Booker around. He left because the playoffs had shown that he had very little help offensively to take this team to the next level.
 
LogGrad98 said:
So it needs to be pared down, not added to. Good point.
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Not at all. Players need to be put in the right situation with the right pieces around them to win titles. Put Melo on those Pistons teams instead of Darko and they win multiple titles and he is viewed completely differently. Replace Tony Parker with a prime Dwill, Arenas or Baron Davis and they still win multiple titles and those guys are viewed as Hall of famers. Their are tons of great offensive players that are capable of being the number 1 option on a championship team if surrounded by the right pieces. Then we also have 3 champions over the last 20 years in the mavs, Pistons and 2014 spurs that didn't even have that tier 1 guy but were unbelievably well rounded teams.
 
sip said:
Not at all. Players need to be put in the right situation with the right pieces around them to win titles. Put Melo on those Pistons teams instead of Darko and they win multiple titles and he is viewed completely differently. Replace Tony Parker with a prime Dwill, Arenas or Baron Davis and they still win multiple titles and those guys are viewed as Hall of famers. Their are tons of great offensive players that are capable of being the number 1 option on a championship team if surrounded by the right pieces. Then we also have 3 champions over the last 20 years in the mavs, Pistons and 2014 spurs that didn't even have that tier 1 guy but were unbelievably well rounded teams.
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You're missing the point. The OP was trying to provide a list of who he viewed as THAT GUY on winning teams. It's his list. I was simply pointing that out. You went on about 2nd tier guys and everything else, but I was just pointing out that his list was meant to be #1 options and how rare they are. Nothing was said about development and building teams, so I'm not sure what you're arguing about.
 
ONE LOVE said:
Didn't Paul Pierce have a Finals MVP?
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I don't care. It's not my list. I was just pointing out he was making a list of top players and showing how rare they are. Sure add Pierce to the list. Whatever. Doesn't mean anything in terms of the OP.
 
LogGrad98 said:
You're missing the point. The OP was trying to provide a list of who he viewed as THAT GUY on winning teams. It's his list. I was simply pointing that out. You went on about 2nd tier guys and everything else, but I was just pointing out that his list was meant to be #1 options and how rare they are. Nothing was said about development and building teams, so I'm not sure what you're arguing about.
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I'm not missing the point. I just completely disagree. There are alot of guys that can be bona-fide tier 1 scorers like Paul Pierce, Arenas, Melo and many others on championship teams if they are complemented by the right pieces. Also he put together a list that was extremely flawed. He has guys like Blake Griffin and Amare but doesn't have Chris Webber, Pau, Shawn Kemp, Bosh, Rasheed Wallace, Elton Brand and Shawn Marion who were just as good or better than those 2 guys in my opinion. The same goes for having a guy like Booker on their but not Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Melo, Vince Carter and Manu who are all guys I would take over Booker. Then you have Ben Wallace who was great but I don't think he was better than Gobert or Mutombo. In the end the truly elite like LeBron, Duncan and Shaq are extremely rare but we are seeing tons of star players emerge all the time.
 
Thee Idiotic Minivan K said:
Just to throw a monkey wrench into the equation, not all drafts are created equal, by all accounts this is a deep draft and the next might be even deeper.
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Yes, I acknowledge this. But, as I also said in the original post, you can't just keep having above average drafts. The NBA is a zero-sum game. There were never more than three THAT guys in any single draft over the past 30 years. To expect that to happen in any given year in the future is probably folly.
 
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