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Why does everyone suddenly want to make the playoffs so badly?

I basically see two rationales for not wanting to make the playoffs. 1. We can't win. 2. We get an extra late lottery pick.

I will never understand #1. Who cares if we lose? And winning as insane underdogs would make this season historic.

Of course, the only reason anyone really wants us not to make it is for the draft pick. This is totally illogical. Look up the history of the lottery. It isn't pretty. And that's from the number one pick all the way down to 14. And the pick we're talking about is our pick which will slot in at 12-14. Yet every year, everybody gets all excited about the top picks in the draft.

Here are those magical 12's, the BEST case scenario:

2010: Xavier Henry
2009: Gerald Henderson
2008: Jason Thompson
2007: Thadeus Young
2006: Hilton Armstrong
2005: Yaroslov Karolov
2004: Robert Swift
2003: Nick Collison
2002: Melvin Ely
2001: Vladimir Radmanovic
2000: Etan Thomas
1999: Alex Radojejik
1998: Michael Doleac
1997: Austin Croshere
1996: Vitaly Potapenko
1995: Cherokee Parks

The List of Legends continues with Reeves, Lynch, Miner, Anthony, and the immortal Alex Kessler.
 
Here is the List of Legends at #13:

2010: Ed Davis
2009: Tyler Hansbrough
2008: Brandon Rush
2007: Julian Wright
2006: Thabo
2005: Sean May
2004: Sebastian Telfair
2003: Marcus Banks
2002: Marcus Haislip
2001: Richard Jefferson
2000: Courtney Alexander
1999: Corey Maggette
1998: Keon Clarke
1997: Derek Anderson
1996: Kobe Bryant
1995: Corliss Williamson
 
I already posted the Dream Team of #14, but I'll reprint it:

14th, 2010: Patrick Patterson
2009: Earl Clark
2008: Anthony Randolph
2007: Al Thornton
2006: Ronnie Brewer
2005: Rashad McCants
2004: Kris Humphries
2003: Luke Ridnour
2002: Frederick Jones (yeah, I don't know either)
2001: Troy Murphy
2000: Mateen Cleaves
1999: William Avery
1998: Michael Dickerson
1997: Maurice Taylor
1996: Predrag Stojakovic
1995: Eric Williams. And the next five wunderkinds have the last names Dare, Haskin, Sealy, King, Mays
 
What's the lesson besides Ronnie Price is better than half the guys on those lists? As I see it, it means the chance of beating the Spurs is probably better than getting a bona fide player at 12 to 14. And this draft is hilariously supposed to be weaker than any year in a decade.

But the bigger lesson is we'll likely be better off adding or acquiring guys through trade and free agency that are already proven in the league.
 
Revolution 9 said:
The competitive nature of the sports fan is coming out.

I want the picks too, but it's still hard to lose. When my Bucaneers won a few meaningless games a season ago it cost us a stud in Suh.
Looking back I'd much rather have him for 10+ years, than those 2 wins at the end of the season.
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I would rather the Jazz forward the pick this year rather than be thinking in a future (better) draft year, "that guy could be our guy if only they would have made the playoffs in '11".
 
billyshelby said:
Here is the List of Legends at #13:

2010: Ed Davis
2009: Tyler Hansbrough
2008: Brandon Rush
2007: Julian Wright
2006: Thabo
2005: Sean May
2004: Sebastian Telfair
2003: Marcus Banks
2002: Marcus Haislip
2001: Richard Jefferson
2000: Courtney Alexander
1999: Corey Maggette
1998: Keon Clarke
1997: Derek Anderson
1996: Kobe Bryant
1995: Corliss Williamson
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Um, there are some pretty good players on this list. Actually probably better than 12. Ed Davis is going to be a very good player. Hansbrough is tearing it up now. You also have Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette, and some guy named Kobe. Brandon Rush might still be pretty good. What is your argument here?
 
NCJazz said:
Um, there are some pretty good players on this list. Actually probably better than 12. Ed Davis is going to be a very good player. Hansbrough is tearing it up now. You also have Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette, and some guy named Kobe. Brandon Rush might still be pretty good. What is your argument here?
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I'm glad you brought this up. In the case of every list, the youngest players all look promising because they haven't failed or turned into journeymen yet. But they rarely turn out to be anything special. So 5 years ago, people would have been saying that Sean May, Sebastian Telfair, Marcus Haislip, or whoever looked good. Then they vanish.

The other point is compile the list from 12-14 and give me the percentage of guys that really panned out. If you're including ANYBODY from the last 3 years you're already falling into the trap. Those guys are likely on the same trajectory as their brothers at 12-14. The percentage of genuine success is infinitesimally low.

As for Kobe, he cried his way to the 13th pick but that's another story.
 
NCJazz said:
Um, there are some pretty good players on this list. Actually probably better than 12. Ed Davis is going to be a very good player. Hansbrough is tearing it up now. You also have Richard Jefferson, Corey Maggette, and some guy named Kobe. Brandon Rush might still be pretty good. What is your argument here?
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Thanks for nailing this. Ihave no idea what his point has been since he began these rants. More than half the players have been or will be very good role players at worst. His argument is fail x 1000000
 
BOX said:
Thanks for nailing this. Ihave no idea what his point has been since he began these rants. More than half the players have been or will be very good role players at worst. His argument is fail x 1000000
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He listed forty-eight players (48). I estimate four of them have been impact players. Injury or not, the fact is 8.25% is not a good percentage to bank on.

And more than half are or will be very good role players? What's your definition of very good role player? Brewer? He's a decent role player. You'd want to tank the season for Ronnie Brewer? Let's ask that question. Jazz have two options: make the playoffs, or sign Ronnie Brewer. Which do you take?
 
And you guys forget: Depending on the new CBA the Jazz will have cap space and Trade assets. And if you guys want to keep Evans, we don't have room for another pick.
 
i want our young guns to get some playoff experience. not much a diff between the 14th and 16th pick. NJN is where its at, especially if DWill out for rest of year.
 
I would love for the Jazz to win a bunch of games to end the season on a high note, but the only way we can make the playoffs is if at least ONE currently slotted playoff team loses several games AND teams right behind us (Houston & Phoenix) also lose several games. The odds are realistically not in our favor...
As far as us not having room on our roster for a 2nd draft pick this summer, we have Kirilenko, Miles, Price, Fesenko, Elson and Watson all with expiring contracts this summer. Plenty of opportunity to retool the roster if the Jazz choose to... I'd say Watson and Miles are wanted back by the Jazz, and Kirilenko if the $$$ are right...
 
NotDeadYet said:
and Kirilenko if the $$$ are right...
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I would just as soon let Kirilenko walk,especially if we are able to draft Harrison Barnes. I think it hurts the team not knowing if AK will play or be injured, not knowing if he will be at practice or be injured, not knowing what AK will show up. But to be fair to him he has shown pretty consistent effort on the court this season, too bad he isn't consistently on it.

And I am certain another team will offer AK more than we would be willing to pay, and I know he says he would sign with us for less but... would he actually?
 
fallenchicken said:
I would just as soon let Kirilenko walk,especially if we are able to draft Harrison Barnes. I think it hurts the team not knowing if AK will play or be injured, not knowing if he will be at practice or be injured, not knowing what AK will show up. But to be fair to him he has shown pretty consistent effort on the court this season, too bad he isn't consistently on it.

And I am certain another team will offer AK more than we would be willing to pay, and I know he says he would sign with us for less but... would he actually?
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If we can land Barnes... OH, HELL YES! My favorite player in the country. Of course, I'm a little biased being a Tar Heel fan.
 
Darkwing Duck said:
He listed forty-eight players (48). I estimate four of them have been impact players. Injury or not, the fact is 8.25% is not a good percentage to bank on.

And more than half are or will be very good role players? What's your definition of very good role player? Brewer? He's a decent role player. You'd want to tank the season for Ronnie Brewer? Let's ask that question. Jazz have two options: make the playoffs, or sign Ronnie Brewer. Which do you take?
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I have never said tank. I said play hard, but I hope we miss. There is far more than 8 percent. I think it's crazy to think you would get anything more than a role player at 12 and beyond. I would love fo have ronnie brewer over most of our scrub bench btw.
 
BOX said:
I have never said tank. I said play hard, but I hope we miss. There is far more than 8 percent. I think it's crazy to think you would get anything more than a role player at 12 and beyond. I would love fo have ronnie brewer over most of our scrub bench btw.
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Start the clock at 2006. Those players have had 4 years in the league to distinguish themselves between starter, role player, or future star in Bulgaria. Here is the list of players who are not just 'role players.'

#12's: 0.
#13's: 4. Thabo, Jefferson, Maggette, Bryant
#14's: 2. Murphy and Stojakovic back in 96.

That's 6 of 36, or almost 17%. And it's worth noting neither Thabo nor Murphy contributed much of anything their first 3 years.

Now lets add in the young guys who aren't 'role players.'

#12's: 0. Gerald Henderson just became a starter so he could turn this into a 1. Young is a solid backup forward so he doesn't qualify outside role player.
#13's: 3. Technically Davis isn't a starter, and Brandon Rush's days as a starter are numbered, but I'll leave it at 3.
#14's: 0. Patterson could eventually turn this into a 1. Randolph seems to have potential. Don't know anything about Clark, and Thornton should keep his passport updated.

So that's 3/12. Go ahead and add Henderson and his 7 days as a starter for a 33% success rate. History still says that rate will go down as these guys settle into backup roles, get hurt, or shore up the small forward position for Real Ukraine.

As I've said, I'll get myself psyched about anybody we draft. But I'd be more excited to acquire players who had an NBA track record and let lottery teams sort out the talent for us. Because late lottery picks are a total crapshoot if you just look at the history of the picks objectively.
 
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