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Following potential 2015 draftees

Handlogten's Heros said:
It's a risk reward thing with unknown players... Just like a speculative business proposition the risk is baked into the price (or draft stock in this example). If the risk is too high more proven players should be drafted ahead of the riskier ones. If Oubre had proven himself he'd be a top 5 pick instead of a late lotto guy... The risk just has to be worth the reward with where you are drafting him.

Proven seniors have flamed out as high lotto picks... More proven players slide to the end of the draft and then turn into gems. It is all speculation and I doubt major reform would change that all that much.

Plus we live in Merica' people... Take that have to wait to make money commi **** out of here.
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Virtual high 5 brotha. Let a man make his money!
 
Either go pro right out of HS, or go to college for at least 3 years, just like baseball. Each school has a set limit of money they can give to players per year, like a $200k budget for example. Divide it all evenly, or however you want. If your school can't afford the budget, then tough luck. Kids are getting paid anyways, might as well have it on the up and up. Improves college and pro basketball. Win-win for America, teams and fans.

Elect me as your next commissioner and these are the changes that I'll make. And ***** sprinkles on the cheerleaders. Mandatory.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
I don't disagree in principle, rather just looking at it from a selfish college basktball fan's perspective.
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I feel ya... College basketball is **** right now. I think they need to make a few rule changes before overhauling the system. No more 35 second shot clock... I don't need to see 15 seconds of 3 man weave at the top of the key before every damned play.
 
Carbon13 said:
I really think we are trading the pick.
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I think we might for a higher pick... There really aren't any vets that are available that fit a need for us that match value wise. If you hit on this year's pick or next year's pick it is huge with the rising cap. My understanding is that the rookie scale won't change. The value of these contracts was already high... add 50% to that value.

I would ask for a mint for the pick and cite that as the reason why.
 
ONE LOVE said:
Yeah but those rules and restrictions are not set in stone though right? If the NBA enforces that 2-3 year college rule, the Chinese League will be getting many more phone calls from agents/kids wanting to play there, it will force these teams to pressure the government to alter the rules, etc. Pretty sure the promise of more $$$ under the table would change things.
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I think the biggest hurdle to the ratio of foreigners/Chinese is that the CBA is basically the training grounds/tryouts for their national team and their national team means a lot to them. They've kind of always believed that basketball would bring them some athletic prominence around the world, but they seem to be failing miserably on that account as they continue to lose games in FIBA Asia events and stuff so maybe that could change.

I'm just not convinced Okafor, Towns, or guys like that mean anything to people in China, which means they wouldn't necessarily benefit the CBA $$$ wise by bringing any over since it's just the domestic market they are playing for and they wouldn't necessarily make those teams any better either. There were multiple American PGs that outplayed Muiday in China this year. He was more or less irrelevant outside of that initial public relations surge.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I feel ya... College basketball is **** right now. I think they need to make a few rule changes before overhauling the system. No more 35 second shot clock... I don't need to see 15 seconds of 3 man weave at the top of the key before every damned play.
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No continuation needs to go. Jump balls shouldn't be called just because a guy touches the basketball for half a second.
 
Wow.. Kaminsky just did a quick dribble step back corner 3 after the whistle and sunk it. Effortless.



Boy he's got a nice shooter's touch.
 
Carbon13 said:
Not sure. Just keep hearing the jazz brass bring up the possibilty of also trading the pick any time the draft is brought up. I think we go big this off season. Either move up or move out.
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Yeah me too, keep hearing stuff but nothing concrete though. All the star RFA are untraceable before the draft? Also what team will trade their established star?
 
Lyles playing like a lottery pick. Knocking down jumpers, driving & finishing.



BTW, Calipari playing Lyles at the SF right now alongside WCS and Towns. Just saying.
 
If the Jazz end up wanting to trade their pick, it still behooves them to tank a bit and get the 9th or 10th pick. There are going to be teams interested in those players--Oubre, Winslow, Turner, Kaminsky.
 
ONE LOVE said:
Lyles playing like a lottery pick. Knocking down jumpers, driving & finishing.



BTW, Calipari playing Lyles at the SF right now alongside WCS and Towns. Just saying.
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Is lyles #41?
Every time I have seen ky play that dude has looked good. Very aggressive, always attacking.

Is he a draft prospect this year? Is he a freshman?
 
ONE LOVE said:
Yeah me too, keep hearing stuff but nothing concrete though. All the star RFA are untraceable before the draft? Also what team will trade their established star?
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Good question, especially with the salary cap increasing. There won't be a lot of motivation for teams to move their good players.
 
fishonjazz said:
Is lyles #41?
Every time I have seen ky play that dude has looked good. Very aggressive, always attacking.

Is he a draft prospect this year? Is he a freshman?
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Yes he is number 41. He's currently #18 on DX. Listed as PF, but obviously he has SF skills for Calipari to put him there.
 
Who is the last good UK role player to come out from the Calipari era? No thanks to Lyles. The stars can be good (Davis, Cousins, Wall) but the other dudes usually suck.
 
Here's the results from another analytical model posted by the Counting The Baskets blog:

https://counting-the-baskets.typepa...-weekend-of-the-tournament-so-only-a-few.html

The guy says in his article that his model doesn't seem to correlate well with draft boards when it comes to point guards, but fits reasonably well when it comes to C, PF and SG.
Point Guard Island: Draft Model Update

I ran my draft model against the latest Draft Express data, which includes the first weekend of the tournament, so only a few players will have more than more one or two games of data added (though most likely that will include all of the prospects on Kentucky).

Before I get to the inevitable list I wanted to both look at the relationship between the model out put and Draft Express Top 100 prospects as well as a couple of visualizations of the stats in the models.

Using the rank given by the model and the DX rank I plotted them and ran some correlations based on position and a split between top and bottom 50.

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So basically the model and Draft Express ratings agree much more at the top of the rankings than at the bottom, where there is no agreement. There's some logic to that given that the history of the draft indicates that there is more consistent differentiation at the top of the draft order than the bottom, which gives us the famous logarithmic shape of draft value.

Point Guard Island

The relationship by position is interesting. It is tempting to see the higher correlation for centers and power forwards as something indicative of the PAWS model being more in tune with scouting for bigs than guards. But last year the model and the consensus had Marcus Smart, for example, in the same neighborhood, with the disagreement the greatest with a couple wings and power forward/center in Clint Capela.

In any case, right now there is basically no agreement between my model and the DX rating of point guards, but a decent relationship with centers, power forwards, and shooting guards.

6a019aff272ac8970c01b7c76b7024970b-500wi


Below we can see a picture of what no correlation looks like, along with my little (literally) point guard island on the left side of the graph.

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The diminutive trio of Tyus Jones, Fred VanVleet and Tyler Ulis are ranked 2nd, 5th and 19th by the PAWS model, while they're 28th, 86th and 89th respectively by Draft Express. Any analytics draft model is at a disadvantage on the defensive end, and it's clear that is a concern with these three. The defensive measures we do have, blocks and steals are below average for both of the freshmen, Jones and Ulis, but VanVleet is competitive with the other higher ranked point guards.

Below the statistics used to inform the draft model are graphed in standardized ratings for scoring, rebounds, blocks plus steals, distribution (assists and turnovers) and a rating combining age, consensus high school recruiting rank, and competition level. The weights mimic the model, so offensive rebounds are more valuable than defensive, steals are more valuable than blocks and age is the dominant factor in the Age and Competition rating.

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Jones, VanVleet and Delon Wright form the models' first tier. Jones gets there in significant part due to his age and high consensus recruiting rank and his distribution numbers. Wright essentially does everything well, but is on the older side. VanVleet is younger than Wright, but has been a below average scorer. We'll see how VanVleet's tournament performance affects his draft stock, a good game against Duke could make him a fair amount of money.

Here's the same stacked visualization for the top ranked shooting guards:
6a019aff272ac8970c01b7c76b7ca8970b-800wi


D'Angelo Russell is the clear leader, with something of a second tier in Jerian Grant and R.J. Hunter. Mario Hezonja does not grade out as well as his scouting, but he is playing on a high level professional team in Spain, where he has struggled to get playing time consistently.

Here are the small forwards:
6a019aff272ac8970c01bb080f716f970d-800wi


The model has Stanley Johnson and Aleksandar Vezenkov as a first tier of sorts, with Justice Winslow, Kelly Oubre, Sam Dekker and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson bunched behind. The big IF with Vezenkov is his defense, his scoring in the Greek leage has been efficient at a high volume. The model does not rate Jake Layman as a top prospect.

Here are the power forwards:
6a019aff272ac8970c01b7c76b7db9970b-800wi


Frank Kaminsky, Bobby Portis and Kevon Looney top the power forwards. Kristaps Porzingis rates less highly than he did last year, after failing to make much progress in a chaotic season for his club in Spain, though his scouting stock hasn't yet suffered.

Finally, the centers:
6a019aff272ac8970c01bb080f729a970d-800wi

There is a clear first tier with Jahlil Okafor and Karl Towns, and then a very talented second tier. Willie Cauley-Stein is somewhat lower in the model estimate than his DX rank, in part due to the limitations valuing defense, but also Cauley-Stein's age and relative lack of scoring.
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