Suspicious packages sent to Obama, Clinton, and CNN Offices

[The Thriller]

haven't read the thread, are we doing that thing where we don't call this terrorism because the person is white?

Nah.

We’re playing the victim card and blaming liberals like Maxine Waters and Robert D’Niro for the toxic political environment. I’ve been listening to Hannity for about 15 minutes now. He has yet to actually pronounce the bomber’s name but just finished a rant about how CNN peddles conspiracies about trump/Russia collusion but never reports about Hillary’s collusion with Russia, how Maxine Waters spews hate by telling democrats to confront republicans, DeNiro said **** trump, and that Sean has been the ignored peacemaker as he’s been advocating for toning down the hate rhetoric for months now.

Oh and Fox News has been blurring out the van’s stickers and refusing to admit it’s a MAGA van. They say it had “political paraphernalia on it.

That’s where we’re at.

 

[The Thriller]

So far the only people I've seen online describe the MAGAbomber as anything other than a terrorist seem convinced he's actually a Democratic operative running a false flag Op. Real galaxy brain stuff.

Most QANON morons who peddled the false flag narrative continue to do so right now. Doubt this will ever change. 30 percent of this country has been overtaken by a cult of personality.

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

I see. I will keep my sentences short for you.

if you feel it was not random variation but a result of policy changes, what were they? Say, something Obama did in 2015 that Trump reversed in 2017 that had this effect. Perhaps something similar. Please be detailed.

All the graphs I have of crime trends over the last century or so contain a lot of noise from year to year.

If you feel it was random variation then you have to solve for at least 3 things.

1. A 20% increase in murder over 2 years are reasonably within the range of deviations from a fitted trend. That sounds like an outlier to me. An underlying reason is much more likely.

2. The questioned Ferguson Effect does in fact not exist. I find the arguments against both forms of manifestation to be flimsy at best.

3. That Obama's speech and his policies had no effect. The latter here is kind of dumb argument to make to begin with. If Obama's policies have no effect then why was he making them?

Somehow confirm all three and I could see believing the 20% increase truly was random variation within a trend. That seems like quite the challenge, one criminologists havent been able to square up.

 

[Stoked]

Completely insane man. Made bomb threats back in 2002. Can we quit the bull crap that this was Pres. Trump's rhetoric that caused these bomb scares??

Ok hypothetical time.

Let’s work with the premise that the Presidents rhetoric and no influence or affect on the man and his bombings.

Ok, should the president stop with his rhetoric? Why or why not?

 

[One Brow]

Obviously. That's what Pinker argues. However, the trend of continuous decline over at least the past few centuries is undeniable. The 2 decade bump couldn't have been arrested by the factors you mentioned since it wasn't caused by the factors mentioned (abortion was not criminalized during that period for example, it was illegal before the bump).

However, the continued criminalization of abortion could have had a slowing effect on the bump that released when abortion was decriminalized. There's no good reason to say the exact same effects were in play in the 1850s as the 2000s, even if the rate of decline is the same. The real argument would be in how the accessibility of abortion factors into ow children are raised today.

I don't think idestroyedthetoilet is making a sincere argument about the crime rate. Anyone can cherry pick data at random points in order to prove an argument. That's what he's doing.

I tend to agree.

 

[fishonjazz]

Heard on ksl 1160 news on the way home from work that this dude is on video at multiple trump rallies holding signs saying **** cnn and lock her up, etc.

 

[Zombie]

Cooooooooool

 

[One Brow]

If you feel it was random variation then you have to solve for at least 3 things.

1. A 20% increase in murder over 2 years are reasonably within the range of deviations from a fitted trend. That sounds like an outlier to me. An underlying reason is much more likely.

By 20%, you are a referring to change in the homicide rate from 4.5/100,000 (as seen in the graph Zombie gave us in post #67 in this thread) to 5.3/100,000 (for 2014-2016 (which is not quite 18%)? So, a total change of 0.8/100,000. Looking at Zombie's first chart, there's a larger total change from 1980-1982 and from 1989-1991, even though statistically, the whole period of 1972-1996 looks like random variations.

2. The questioned Ferguson Effect does in fact not exist. I find the arguments against both forms of manifestation to be flimsy at best.

My understanding of the Ferguson Effect is the claim that police are reluctant to leave their vehicles. To my understanding, most murders are done when police are not in the vincinity at all. Could you please explain how the Ferguson Effect could have any relation to the crime rate? Also, what did Trump do to end the Ferguson Effect? Did he pardon all the police officers who shot black people, or something?

Also, if it is the Ferguson Effect, why is it stronger in smaller cities than in medium cities?

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/table-10
Citiy size and percent change from 2015 to 2016:
1,000,000 and over (Group I subset) 20.3
500,000 to 999,999 (Group I subset) 6.5
250,000 to 499,999 (Group I subset) 11.1
GROUP II (100,000 to 249,999) 6.3
GROUP III (50,000 to 99,999) 0.7
GROUP IV (25,000 to 49,999) 2.4
GROUP V (10,000 to 24,999) 3.4
GROUP VI (under 10,000) 8.4

Does the Ferguson Effect lose potency in cities between 50K and 100K, and then regain strength in cities under 10K? Same question for between 500K and 1000K.

3. That Obama's speech and his policies had no effect. The latter here is kind of dumb argument to make to begin with. If Obama's policies have no effect then why was he making them?

Which policies by Obama do you think had an effect on the murder rate? The ACA? Net neutrality?

Somehow confirm all three and I could see believing the 20% increase truly was random variation within a trend. That seems like quite the challenge, one criminologists havent been able to square up.

How would I confirm a lack of causation between the Ferguson Effect (to the degree it exists at all) and the homicide rate? How would I confirm a lack of causation between Obama policies (assuming you can name them) and the homicide rate? What would such hypothetical data look like?

 

[JimLes]

 

[JimLes]

Nope, nothing to do with Trump. Dude just liked shiny stickers.

 

[Stoked]

Nope, nothing to do with Trump. Dude just liked shiny stickers.

I’ve wondered if this is a ploy by the right. Not to blame dems but to show Trump as strong and effective. They found the dude in what? 2 days? Then the van basically saying Trump on the side.

Will he effectively spin this into him being an good, fair leader? Just in time for midterms.

Just one of many things I’ve wondered briefly.

 

[Zombie]

I’ve wondered if this is a ploy by the right. Not to blame dems but to show Trump as strong and effective. They found the dude in what? 2 days? Then the van basically saying Trump on the side.

Will he effectively spin this into him being an good, fair leader? Just in time for midterms.

Just one of many things I’ve wondered briefly.

That would require giving the FBI credit for something. I really don't think there needs to be a conspiracy type explanation for this.

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

By 20%, you are a referring to change in the homicide rate from 4.5/100,000 (as seen in the graph Zombie gave us in post #67 in this thread) to 5.3/100,000 (for 2014-2016 (which is not quite 18%)? So, a total change of 0.8/100,000. Looking at Zombie's first chart, there's a larger total change from 1980-1982 and from 1989-1991

The exact number is slightly over 20%, not under 18%. You dont seem the type to use rounding error to bolster your case.

As to the rest, looking at a bar graph and saying 20.19% is about the same because it looks like it to you is far from convincing.

Here's some real numbers. Since the 1993 peak, during the current downtrend we've seen 6 times of yoy murder increases. The non-Obama increases were .26 - 2.4% increases, very small. The Obama events were back-to-back 10.8 and 7.86% increases.

We are talking annual murder increases a full order of magnitude higher between 2014-2016 than previously (low to mid-100's to 1,000's). You still holding the line that its random? The scholars sure didnt. Their question is not if there has been significant, meaningful increase but if it was a trend reversal.

 

[Stoked]

That would require giving the FBI credit for something. I really don't think there needs to be a conspiracy type explanation this.

I agree that there doesn’t need to be. But at the same time I wouldn’t put stuff like this past some of them.

 

[Hotdog]

Nah.

We’re playing the victim card and blaming liberals like Maxine Waters and Robert D’Niro for the toxic political environment. I’ve been listening to Hannity for about 15 minutes now. He has yet to actually pronounce the bomber’s name but just finished a rant about how CNN peddles conspiracies about trump/Russia collusion but never reports about Hillary’s collusion with Russia, how Maxine Waters spews hate by telling democrats to confront republicans, DeNiro said **** trump, and that Sean has been the ignored peacemaker as he’s been advocating for toning down the hate rhetoric for months now.

Oh and Fox News has been blurring out the van’s stickers and refusing to admit it’s a MAGA van. They say it had “political paraphernalia on it.

That’s where we’re at.

Fox News will never tell the truth. So you can expect them to be covering up for the bombers and Trump. Just like they covered up for Trump and Russia. They are a propaganda Nazi machine

Also, white people are the biggest terrorists on the planet. But you wont hear that on Fox news.

 

[silesian]

Nice try, buttercup. The FBI didnt lie when they told us the murder rate rose 20% to 5.3 per 100,000.

5.4 when Obama took office. 5.3 when he left office. Overall violent crime dropped every year of his presidency.

 

[silesian]

You think reversing a 30 year declining trend with a 20% reversal in murder rates can be apologized away or swept aside. Cute.

7 years of decline and one year of uptick. Yep, Obama sucks. Hope you are just playing dumb.

 

[silesian]

Completely insane man. Made bomb threats back in 2002. Can we quit the bull crap that this was Pres. Trump's rhetoric that caused these bomb scares??

Wow.

 

[silesian]

haven't read the thread, are we doing that thing where we don't call this terrorism because the person is white?

Yep. If white, he is a crazy anomaly. If brown, its from the caravan.

 

[fishonjazz]

Cesar Sayoc is an amateur body builder and former stripper, a loner with a long arrest record who showed little interest in politics until Donald Trump came along.