Al Jefferson Projections

[Deleted member 848]

There have been snippets of opinions on how Big Al would do across a few threads over the past few months, so I figured we should try and consolidate all of the opinions into one thread.

How will he do? Will his progress as of last season continue?? Will he begin to draw more fouls?? Will he improve defensively? Will his PPG increase, decrease??

I am finding his stat line hard to predict, seeing as if the rest of our team improves their scoring, then naturally Al won't get as many attempts. I am predicting that his FG% will increase just like it did towards the end of last season, as well as his assists, and his fouls-drawn. I am predicting him to be a better team-player than last season, after gaining one full year of experience in such team-oriented offense (as opposed to the offences of the teams he used to be a part of throughout his career). I am hoping for a breakout-season for AL not from a statistical standpoint, but from a team-standpoint.

My guess: 20PPG(+/- 2, depending on how many attempts he is dished) 10 RPG, 3 assists, and 2 blocks. FG% will increase as well.

I have continuously supported Al Jefferson over the offseason, and I hope that many of his opposers can eat some serious crow after the end of this season not for my sake, but for the sake of our team. An Al Jefferson that benefits the team could be a player that we could hang onto, for years to come. Plus, he could increase his trade value, and if we have full faith in Kanter, then we can get a much more palatable trade during his contract year.

Curious to hear everyones predictions, and your explanations for them.

 

[JohnStockalypse]

17 ppg, 8 rpg He doesn't fit in our offense very well.

 

[Deleted member 848]

17 ppg, 8 rpg He doesn't fit in our offense very well.

What is "our offense" again?? You and I both don't know to whom the offense will be tailored to, at the start of the season. We have a new Head Coach, don't forget.

 

[Chris-L]

17 ppg, 8 rpg He doesn't fit in our offense very well.

And what is our offense?

 

[JohnStockalypse]

wow you guys dont even know what our offense is??!?!?!

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Going to say 21 and 11.

 

[Chris-L]

I pretty much agree with your predictions across the board on this one, dalamon. I expect Al to show slight imporvements in all areas, no reason not to think so the way he progressed last year. I think a lot of people here will be suprised with him this season. I'd hate to lose him now, I feel he is just coming into his prime and his value will only go up IMHO.

 

[Qman]

wow you guys dont even know what our offense is??!?!?!

I don't think anyone outside of coaching staff knows. And the coaching staff only has a general idea because Corbin needs to find how he wants to run things.

 

[MVP]

21 pts, 11reb, 2 blk.

 

[LogGrad98]

Going to say 21 and 11.

I was going to basically say the same thing. I think Corbin will be able to mesh the guys he has into a coherent group, and I think AJ will get more comfortable here.

Plus, as of the end of last year, since Johnstockalypsypso didn't notice, we had a reboot. There is no set "offense" in Utah anymore, not until we see what Corbin does with the team. So I can easily see AJ putting up numbers like this.

21 ppg
11 rpg
2 bpg
2 apg
1 spg

50% fg

Or thereabouts.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I actually expect the offense to look more like Jazz offense than the end of the year did.

 

[MDAV28]

I was going to basically say the same thing. I think Corbin will be able to mesh the guys he has into a coherent group, and I think AJ will get more comfortable here.

Plus, as of the end of last year, since Johnstockalypsypso didn't notice, we had a reboot. There is no set "offense" in Utah anymore, not until we see what Corbin does with the team. So I can easily see AJ putting up numbers like this.

21 ppg
11 rpg
2 bpg
2 apg
1 spg

50% fg

Or thereabouts.

Not one player had those numbers last year. Dwight was closest but didn't have 2 APG

 

[Deleted member 848]

Not one player had those numbers last year. Dwight was closest but didn't have 2 APG

Al Jefferson averaged more than 2 APG in the last 2 months, and averaged 3.6 in April (coinciding with his growing inclination to pass out of double teams). His season average was 1.8.

He's only 1.3 RPG, a bit north of 2 PPG and less then half a steal off of these numbers. Given that he's another year removed from ACL injury, and most of the trends towards the last half of the previous season all exceeded these numbers, I still think its quite a reasonable prediction. I still stand by my slightly more conservative predictions, but the sky is honestly the limit for Big Al.

 

[MDAV28]

Al Jefferson averaged more than 2 APG in the last 2 months, and averaged 3.6 in April (coinciding with his growing inclination to pass out of double teams). His season average was 1.8.

He's only 1.3 RPG, a bit north of 2 PPG and less then half a steal off of these numbers. Given that he's another year removed from ACL injury, and most of the trends towards the last half of the previous season all exceeded these numbers, I still think its quite a reasonable prediction. I still stand by my slightly more conservative predictions, but the sky is honestly the limit for Big Al.

That's interesting considering how he seems to be known as a bad passer and decision maker. I wasn't necessarily disagreeing, just pointing out that those are great numbers. All-Star worthy. I think he could make the jump in points but not boards though.

 

[LogGrad98]

Not one player had those numbers last year. Dwight was closest but didn't have 2 APG

In an insane up and down year, and his first with the Jazz, AJ averaged this last year:

18.6 ppg
9.7 rpg
1.8 apg
0.6 spg
1.9 bpg

His best year in Minny was

23.1 ppg
11 rpg
1.6 apg
0.8 spg
1.7 bpg

And he is a career 50% guy (.502 I think)

It's not a stretch to see some of those come up this year, especially as he will be the go-to guy, at least initially, and he is more comfortable in Utah. Corbin will expect him to carry much of the load. And he is entering his prime. 21, 11, 2, 2, 1 is not by any means out of the question. In that year in Minny he got those numbers, by rounding.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Between 49% and 51% from the field on the season, will still have one of the funkiest shots in the NBA, might be a better passer but will never deliver crisp passes in anticipation for others' easy buckets.

He might actually get points in transition for the first time in his life but probably not. He might actually get to the line at a respectable rate for the first time in his NBA career but probably not. All the working out in the world won't help him read an opponents offense and/or play team defense. It's been 7 years.

I don't give a damn about Al Jefferson.

 

[Deleted member 848]

In an insane up and down year, and his first with the Jazz, AJ averaged this last year:

18.6 ppg
9.7 rpg
1.8 apg
0.6 spg
1.9 bpg

His best year in Minny was

23.1 ppg
11 rpg
1.6 apg
0.8 spg
1.7 bpg

And he is a career 50% guy (.502 I think)

It's not a stretch to see some of those come up this year, especially as he will be the go-to guy, at least initially, and he is more comfortable in Utah. Corbin will expect him to carry much of the load. And he is entering his prime. 21, 11, 2, 2, 1 is not by any means out of the question. In that year in Minny he got those numbers, by rounding.

Well said. I still think that his scoring will be a bit lower, seeing as we had much more scoring options than Minny did back when he played with them. Due to this, I expect him to hit a new career high in assists. Al Jeffersons offensive stats will seriously depend on how Corbin utilizes him this season. Rebounding is a bit difficult to predict, although if reports of him coming back with a much stronger physique are true, then I fully expect this to help his rebounding.

 

[MDAV28]

In an insane up and down year, and his first with the Jazz, AJ averaged this last year:

18.6 ppg
9.7 rpg
1.8 apg
0.6 spg
1.9 bpg

His best year in Minny was

23.1 ppg
11 rpg
1.6 apg
0.8 spg
1.7 bpg

And he is a career 50% guy (.502 I think)

It's not a stretch to see some of those come up this year, especially as he will be the go-to guy, at least initially, and he is more comfortable in Utah. Corbin will expect him to carry much of the load. And he is entering his prime. 21, 11, 2, 2, 1 is not by any means out of the question. In that year in Minny he got those numbers, by rounding.

I figured you were rounding. Numbers like that would be awesome this year. When I searching stats I found a very interesting one. Al Jefferson was number 1 in the NBA last year in Turnover percentage (meaning he turned the ball over the least amount per 100 possessions) at 6.8%.

 

[Deleted member 848]

<%50 on the season, will still have one of the funkiest shots in the NBA, might be a better passer but will never deliver crisp passes in anticipation for others' easy buckets.

Im hoping his FG% increases, he should be doing a lot better. Looking at Al Jefferson's FG% through monthly splits doesn't shed too much light on predictions either: https://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2389/al-jefferson

Though he averaged 55 in February, and 53.2 in March, he then dropped to below 45 in april, and was below 50 for most of the other months. Very erratic to say the least.

 

[Deleted member 848]

I figured you were rounding. Numbers like that would be awesome this year. When I searching stats I found a very interesting one. Al Jefferson was number 1 in the NBA last year in Turnover percentage (meaning he turned the ball over the least amount per 100 possessions) at 6.8%.

One of the reason why analysts say his FG% is lower than it could be. He often resorts to taking more difficult shots, instead of drawing fouls, and risking turning it over via blocking, or no-calls via the refs.