Reading the Tea Leaves

[Revolution 9]

What's wrong with having the name PKM?

if only everyone knew what it really stood for..

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I like the thread. I think there have been enough games to draw some early conclusions. I agree with much of what PKM is saying. I'll throw in a few comments:

1) The Jazz don't have a leading/go-to scorer. That will likely be their greatest priority with their own lotto pick this year. To be a contender, a team needs at least one guy, preferably two, who can be relied upon to score as 30 - 40 points. As much as people say that defense wins championships, championship teams make big scoring plays. The Jazz will draft a guy who can fill it up. I do think Jabari Parker is the early favorite until someone emerges as a dominant scorer, but they'll draft BPA regardless of position.

2) Kanter and Hayward are the most offensively versatile players we have, both are capable of scoring 20 or 25 pts when properly motivated, and both will be important parts of the future. The Jazz will commit to them for their offense and passing to support our new stud.

3) The Jazz are open to trading Favors, and this was one of the motivations behind extending him, but they won't do it unless there is a tantalizing opportunity. Favors is still a defensive juggernaut who has just enough offense to stay on the floor. His calling card is defensive rebounding. Think Joakim Noah or Brian Grant in the late 90s. He's coasting right now because the team is losing and there's no reason for him to exert himself. He's got nothing to play for right now.

4) The Jazz won't go too far out of their way to keep Alec Burks. He's a talented, if streaky, offensive player who seems destined to add scoring punch and change-of-pace off the bench. He doesn't always blend well with the other players, but can come in and score 10 quick points. He might have a career like Jamal Crawford and move around the league a bit. If the Jazz can get a better player with their GSW pick--e.g., Aaron Harrison, Wayne Selden, Gary Harris--they probably will.

5) I don't think the Jazz will reach for a veteran PG. I think they're happy with Burke's skill set, as he can space the floor, run pick-and-rolls, hit cutters with passes and defend well enough. It would take a dominant passer like Rondo coming available for the Jazz to disrupt their current plans.


The key for the Jazz is flexibility. The Jazz have NBA talent at every position, but no superstar and no coach to mold it into a real contender. They'll make careful decisions based around who they can get in the draft. The tank is real, and that's why there hasn't been even a word of complaint or concern from the front office, despite the Jazz's worst start in nearly 40 years.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Another good post.

To clarify, I think the FO is still bullish on Burke.. but I still say they may need a proven winner/leader to drag the team back up the hill.

 

[Deleted member 848]

Good post.

However, "player's coach" carries wide-ranging definitions. I don't see Ty as a player's coach in the sense I call it. I see him as more of a blend into the team kind of guy.

By my definition (doesn't make it right, I know) a player's-first-coach is a guy that demands everything from his players, works as hard as he asks them to work, and if they give it their all.. he goes to bat for them against anyone.. even at his own demise. If the team sees all of this, it builds trust in the coach and, even more importantly, team chemistry.

So. Friggin. Pissed. That. We. Missed. Out. On. Brad. Stevens. FML

 

[Deleted member 848]

Another good post.

To clarify, I think the FO is still bullish on Burke.. but I still say they may need a proven winner/leader to drag the team back up the hill.

I just have a glimmer of hope that Burke has some tangible leading skills that most other players/the coaching staff lacks.

I anticipate that Burke's contributions to this team this season will supersede his box scores. We need an alpha like it's no one's business. The players need a coach's extensions, who holds all of his teammates equally accountable.

Pls save us, O Black Jesus Burke

 

[The Midnight]

I may make this a several part post so as not to lose the attention of those that don't like reading posts with multiple sentences.

Anyway, call it more of a gut feel, but I am getting a feel for who stays, who goes, what we do in the draft, trades, and FA.
Wow.. we have a brazillian options in front of us.

So I'm going to skip to the very end and over the coming days will explain why I feel the way I do.

Who stays;
Burke
Hayward
Rush
Kanter
Gobert
Harris

Favors and Burks get traded.
Between those trades, the available cap space/FA, and the draft, we pick up;
1) veteran stud PG (trade or FA)
2) defensive center (gsw pick netting Embiid or WCS - or from trade/FA)
3) A versatile scoring forward with our own pick (Randle or Parker)

Ty fired toward end of season or off season.

I know this post will be replied to with much vitriol.. it's okay. I have thick skin.. say what you mean and let's have some healthy debate and figure this out. Then we can look back and see how well we, collectively, saw the strategy.
(Again, I'll defend my thoughts as to how I arrived at the above predictions shortly.)

I predicted this 2 months ago in this extremely popular thread with 10+ pages of discussion:

https://jazzfanz.com/showthread.php?19556-Could-Gobert-eventually-replace-Favors-in-the-Lineup

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If the Jazz can trade Favors for a Top-6 pick in this draft, it is probably worth it. Favors and Kanter are both PFs, ideally.

 

[The Midnight]

Favors becomes expendable if Gobert gains weight and improves his game. He is actually a center or if the Jazz draft a center in 2014. The problem with Favors is he too is a PF. We have two PFs with no center that is ready to be a starter. The fact that you said Favors is signed to a reasonable contract makes it more likely he will be traded if the Jazz are looking to trade one of the PFs. Kanter will want a big contract so many teams might be afraid to trade for him a year before he becomes a FA.

This.

 

[Dr. Jones]

So. Friggin. Pissed. That. We. Missed. Out. On. Brad. Stevens. FML

As much as this may be hard to swallow... I doubt he would have accepted.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I just have a glimmer of hope that Burke has some tangible leading skills that most other players/the coaching staff lacks.

I anticipate that Burke's contributions to this team this season will supersede his box scores. We need an alpha like it's no one's business. The players need a coach's extensions, who holds all of his teammates equally accountable.

Pls save us, O Black Jesus Burke

I agree he has it.. just not sure these guys will put their faith in a noob when they are at their lowest.

 

[The Midnight]

If the Jazz can trade Favors for a Top-6 pick in this draft, it is probably worth it. Favors and Kanter are both PFs, ideally.

.... and I've been saying this. Favors & Burke for the chance to pick Andrew Harrison.

Gobert
Kanter
(Our '14 pick = Wiggins/Jabari/Randle)
Hayward
Harrison


To me that's a Championship contending team in 2016. A complete all-round team:

- We're big at every position.

- 2 players that can score in the clutch (Harrison & our '14 pick)

- 1 stud low post scorer (Kanter)

- 1 stud rim protector (Gobert)

- 3 stud 3pt shooters (Harrison, our '14 pick, Hayward)

- 3 potential All Stars (Harrison, Kanter, our '14 pick)

 

[Jazz4ever]

I warned everyone losing Millsap could potentially put us back into the dark ages. All of a sudden those PF and centers that were scoring over the "short" Millsap are doing the same thing to Favors and Kanter. Whoops! Millsap critics were quick to say he is inconsistent as well, but in reality he was just playing with terrible PGs like Kanter and Favors are now. So Millsap gets to play with Teague now, and he is absolutely killing it, averaging 20/8/1 on super high efficiency. The point is, let Burke return and finish out the year before we make any trade predictions. He was considered the best PG of the draft class and could make all the difference. Trading any of these players now would be getting 2 cents on the dollar.

 

[orangello]

So. Friggin. Pissed. That. We. Missed. Out. On. Brad. Stevens. FML

The most depressing day off the offseason by far.

 

[orangello]

If the Jazz can trade Favors for a Top-6 pick in this draft, it is probably worth it. Favors and Kanter are both PFs, ideally.

If that's possible then I do it, no questions asked.

 

[orangello]

As much as this may be hard to swallow... I doubt he would have accepted.

I heard Calipari might be available.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I warned everyone losing Millsap could potentially put us back into the dark ages. All of a sudden those PF and centers that were scoring over the "short" Millsap are doing the same thing to Favors and Kanter. Whoops! Millsap critics were quick to say he is inconsistent as well, but in reality he was just playing with terrible PGs like Kanter and Favors are now. So Millsap gets to play with Teague now, and he is absolutely killing it, averaging 20/8/1 on super high efficiency. The point is, let Burke return and finish out the year before we make any trade predictions. He was considered the best PG of the draft class and could make all the difference. Trading any of these players now would be getting 2 cents on the dollar.

PFs aren't scoring over Kanter and Favors, centers are. Kanter and Favors have no problem guarding PFs. They had trouble with Brook Lopez and a bit of trouble with Jonas Valanciunas. Millsap is still undersized and it shows in the half court.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I heard Calipari might be available.

Nope. I'd be surprised if he ever goes to the NBA again. I bet he retires at UK.
Having said that, if he did go to the NBA.. it would be to an immediate contender.. and I just don't see it.

(I know you were joking)

 

[Jazz4ever]

PFs aren't scoring over Kanter and Favors, centers are. Kanter and Favors have no problem guarding PFs. They had trouble with Brook Lopez and a bit of trouble with Jonas Valanciunas. Millsap is still undersized and it shows in the half court.

Did you not see Pyscho T owning Favors last night? Favors and Kanter can bother a shot occasionally with their superior length but cannot hold their ground like Millsap could. In the end its a wash, for now at least.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I didn't see the game last night.. but if TH was really owning Favors.... wow.

 

[GVC]

Did you not see Pyscho T owning Favors last night?

And Boozer the game before and Bass the game before that.

The Jazz aren't doubling the post though (Kanter's been doubling mediocre wing players looking to pull up from 20 feet...), and Favors isn't playing any help defense. Not sure if it's by design (keeping Favors out of foul trouble???) or if it's poor execution.