I have never said tank. I said play hard, but I hope we miss. There is far more than 8 percent. I think it's crazy to think you would get anything more than a role player at 12 and beyond. I would love fo have ronnie brewer over most of our scrub bench btw.
Start the clock at 2006. Those players have had 4 years in the league to distinguish themselves between starter, role player, or future star in Bulgaria. Here is the list of players who are not just 'role players.'
#12's: 0.
#13's: 4. Thabo, Jefferson, Maggette, Bryant
#14's: 2. Murphy and Stojakovic back in 96.
That's 6 of 36, or almost 17%. And it's worth noting neither Thabo nor Murphy contributed much of anything their first 3 years.
Now lets add in the young guys who aren't 'role players.'
#12's: 0. Gerald Henderson just became a starter so he could turn this into a 1. Young is a solid backup forward so he doesn't qualify outside role player.
#13's: 3. Technically Davis isn't a starter, and Brandon Rush's days as a starter are numbered, but I'll leave it at 3.
#14's: 0. Patterson could eventually turn this into a 1. Randolph seems to have potential. Don't know anything about Clark, and Thornton should keep his passport updated.
So that's 3/12. Go ahead and add Henderson and his 7 days as a starter for a 33% success rate. History still says that rate will go down as these guys settle into backup roles, get hurt, or shore up the small forward position for Real Ukraine.
As I've said, I'll get myself psyched about anybody we draft. But I'd be more excited to acquire players who had an NBA track record and let lottery teams sort out the talent for us. Because late lottery picks are a total crapshoot if you just look at the history of the picks objectively.
