Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[seattlejazzfan]

I think he had zero potential assists in a game or two this year. The book on him is he isn't a good game processor. I think the passing is a big part of that. Every basketball player can pass... when I say he can pass I am saying he either isn't or is awful at it. A good pass here or there isn't proof he can pass it either. I think it is fair to label him as "can't pass" until he does it... regardless of what his role was last year.

i'll just say this: as somebody who watched 30+ rutgers games this season, bailey's passing ability isn't a concern for me. if he were a flagg level passer, it would be incredible. he's not that. but if he were ultimately a jazz draft pick, i wouldn't even think twice about it. he'll be fine.

his ballhandling, otoh - that concerns me. it's my main concern and i think the main reason he took so many tough shots. now, it is absolutely something he can work on and improve a ton, but for now it's not good.

ftr, i really hope this doesn't come across as a "watch the games" type post. not that at all. just speaking honestly about bailey as somebody who did watch most of his games.

 

[LogGrad98]

Uhh, it's the opposite.

Tre is potentially an elite shooter. Bailey it's a bit questionable, but I really believe he's going to be a high tier shooter (at least when you factor in size). Harper/Flagg are both really good off the catch.

Huh, ok then. I will take it at face value. I have been reading bios on some of the top 10 likely picks and it seems a common knock from multiple web sites is somewhat suspect shooting across the board. A few of them are mentioned to be good shooters, but most seem to have that skill in the negative category.

 

[HermanG]

Watching some tape and I'm getting a bit worried about Ace's handles. How common it is that guys his size develop solid handles after college?

 

[KqWIN]

I think more than passing we just need general playmaking. You need to be able to pass, but it's probably more important to be able to break down the defense to create those passing opportunities. We got guys who finish plays, but don't have a great primary ball handler who can break down the defense. I don't think Ace is a great passer, but Tre is not bad. While both are great at making tough shots, I don't think either are great at collapsing the defense and creating those playmaking opportunities.

I don't think we should be drafting for need anyways, but that's my two cents on that discussion.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Yeah it is, I just dont have great confidence it translates.

And if everyone had confidence that it would, he’d easily go top-10.

My argument would be this: it’s prohibitively difficult/rare to get special players outside of the draft, so you draft players that could be special, especially if the risk is relatively low (in this case, it’s opportunity cost vs whoever’s left at 21… while already having too many prospects).

If Beringer is there at 21, I get taking him over Wolf. I think. But an auto-generated stretch 5? If I need one, I’ll trade for one or sign one.

 

[slc]

Jazz must get the #1 or #2 pick
MUST GET!!!!!!!

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I just saw a blurb that the Lakers are looking to move on from Dalton Knecht which isn't surprising in that he was involved in the trade with the Hornets that got undone. His regular season stats weren't awful but he fell out of the playoff rotation. Could trader Dan have some interest?

Knecht is the same age as Juzang, and it's debatable if he's a better player at the current stage. In theory he is, but I don't think Knecht is a high priority. Brice, at least, should be better overall.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Watching some tape and I'm getting a bit worried about Ace's handles. How common it is that guys his size develop solid handles after college?

Tell me if you really think it's his handle that's limited, or if the issue is that he has no first step. If Ace has plenty of space or he brings the ball up full court, I think he's fine and fairly confident in his handle. When he tries to beat his defender, he can't because of his limited 1st step.

Trey Murphy was very limited off the dribble coming into the league. Last year (year 4), he showed a lot of improvement.

 

[Basketball Novice]

i'll just say this: as somebody who watched 30+ rutgers games this season, bailey's passing ability isn't a concern for me. if he were a flagg level passer, it would be incredible. he's not that. but if he were ultimately a jazz draft pick, i wouldn't even think twice about it. he'll be fine.

his ballhandling, otoh - that concerns me. it's my main concern and i think the main reason he took so many tough shots. now, it is absolutely something he can work on and improve a ton, but for now it's not good.

ftr, i really hope this doesn't come across as a "watch the games" type post. not that at all. just speaking honestly about bailey as somebody who did watch most of his games.

Weren't there games where Harper was out and Ace was the primary? From the amount I have watched on Ace, he throws some inaccurate passes. Or just doesn't pass at all. And doesn't have good control of the ball when dribbling. Since he can't beat guys one on one to get to the rim, he doesn't create many advantages. He doesn't like contact or play with any force. Completely a finesse player right now. If he was better at getting by guys would he be a better passer? Maybe? but he doesn't and he isn't. I don't know man, it's alot of disadvantages to draft a tall shooter top 3.

For me, too much is missing. Maybe he can work on the dribbling and that has a cascading positive effect on other things such as the passing and getting to the rim.

 

[KqWIN]

Tell me if you really think it's his handle that's limited, or if the issue is that he has no first step. If Ace brings the ball up full court, I think he's fine and fairly confident in his handle. When he tries to beat his defender, he can't because of his limited 1st step.

Trey Murphy was very limited off the dribble coming into the league. Last year (year 4), he showed a lot of improvement.

I think it's both of the things you mentioned, but it's also his decision making. He plays for his mid range jumper. That's the shot he wants, and because he can get it at any time he shoots a ton of them. So it's skill, some physical limitations (I think he's a little stiff, but not bad), and it's also mentality thing. He's had Ayton syndrome.

Trey Murphy is an interesting case because while he did do a lot more creation stuff, he wasn't that good at it. Most of his success came from doing things he was already good at (transition and spot ups). He had more of his 2FG makes assisted than Lauri, I'm not sure I would be looking at Trey as a success in terms of creating off the dribble. Bottom 20 percentile in both isolation and PnR ball handling.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

i'll just say this: as somebody who watched 30+ rutgers games this season, bailey's passing ability isn't a concern for me. if he were a flagg level passer, it would be incredible. he's not that. but if he were ultimately a jazz draft pick, i wouldn't even think twice about it. he'll be fine.

his ballhandling, otoh - that concerns me. it's my main concern and i think the main reason he took so many tough shots. now, it is absolutely something he can work on and improve a ton, but for now it's not good.

ftr, i really hope this doesn't come across as a "watch the games" type post. not that at all. just speaking honestly about bailey as somebody who did watch most of his games.

No... I didn't take it that way at all. I think I watched maybe 5 ish full games. I like doing the full game highlights on Cashiggy. I'm a casual. I really wish Ace and Dylan went to a real situation instead of that **** show. Makes it so much harder to feel concrete about their production.

Also heard J Kyle Mann on the Zach Lowe show... said that Ace was measured before and came in at 6-8.25 and 6-11.5 wingspan. I guess with Ace my feeling is everything about him that makes people salivate is a little overrated imo. Like 6-10 shooter... its more like 6-9 shooter? Tre does the tough shot making thing better... I know he's smaller but shrug.

For me 3-6 is basically fully interchangeable. I know GMs don't think that way but right now I am fully Kon Pilled and it seems to only be getting stronger. For me I guess I think Kon has like a really good chance to be some version of Bane. Lets say its 50%. I think Tre might have like a 10% chance at being Booker but a more likely scenario is like Beasley+. VJ I think the measurements may end up hurting him quite a bit. Ace you could tell me he is like GG Jackson, Cam Reddish, Jabari Smith Jr. plus... the high end outcome... Like maybe Ingram on caffeine? I just think its a really wide range of outcomes.

 

[KqWIN]

For the "shotmaker" prospects, I still have Ace > Tre. Tre shoots 3's which is a big advantage for him in the shotmaking department. I think Tre is more likely than Ace to be a high level scorer in the NBA. But Ace has legitimate two way potential. I have really low hopes for Tre on the defensive end. I get it, he's 6'6 with a 6'10 wingspan. I hear that brought up over and over, but it's kind of like saying Key has plus size at the PG position. That's great, how do they play defense?

And I don't want it to get twisted. I really do think Tre is an ELITE shooting prospect. He's just lacking quite a bit in the other areas.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

For the "shotmaker" prospects, I still have Ace > Tre. Tre shoots 3's which is a big advantage for him in the shotmaking department. I think Tre is more likely than Ace to be a high level scorer in the NBA. But Ace has legitimate two way potential. I have really low hopes for Tre on the defensive end. I get it, he's 6'6 with a 6'10 wingspan. I hear that brought up over and over, but it's kind of like saying Key has plus size at the PG position. That's great, how do they play defense?

And I don't want it to get twisted. I really do think Tre is an ELITE shooting prospect. He's just lacking quite a bit in the other areas.

I shouldn't make decisions based on sunk costs... ngl tho... Ace is scary in that you may end up with a pile of things that never connect. Coming up empty with Williams under the same type of "he's 6-8 with X wingspan and if he puts it together and fills out..." would leave me pretty frustrated. Obviously very different guys and Ace is a much better bet... just think there are enough ifs that I might opt for a safer prospect.

I think the drawbacks with Kon are he likely isn't creating a ton without actions... but thats fine. The lateral movement, but he knows where to be (court mapping is the new buzzword in draft pods) and plays really hard and that can make up for a lot of issues.

GMs don't necessarily think this way but if I land #3 I am looking for a trade partner that will give me something to slide back a couple spots.

 

[Basketball Novice]

More than anything, I want to come out of this draft with a guy who could be our 1A offensive option. Someone we can base the whole offense around. It would give some sense of direction for team building. Everything will be easier when we have a focus. If we are going to go for offensive players, I would rather swing on Queen or Tre or hell even Fears even if I'm not a huge fan of him (If we drop to 3,4,5). Later in the draft, guys like Wolf or Yang could be interesting in that aspect as they bring unique offensive skills that could make them real difference makers. I want guys with unique or elite skillsets that can lead the Jazz offense.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Here is an ape-ton of VJ Edgecombe highlights. His skill level on offense actually reminds me a bit of Collin Sexton--i.e., he plays hard, he beats people to the rim with hard drives, and he can make 3s when he's squared up with his feet set. He also has a bit of a mid-range jumper as a counter when he can't get all the way downhill. So if you take a guy like Sexton, make him 3 or 4 inches bigger, and give him a bit more bounce, he's going to score buckets and get to the line at a high rate. Then defensively, you're getting more speed and athleticism on the perimeter to jump passing lanes and contest shooters.

I like him. I just question whether he's your #1 or #2 option you can build an offense around.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHSr6zRcSro&t=4s

 

[KqWIN]

I shouldn't make decisions based on sunk costs... ngl tho... Ace is scary in that you may end up with a pile of things that never connect. Coming up empty with Williams under the same type of "he's 6-8 with X wingspan and if he puts it together and fills out..." would leave me pretty frustrated. Obviously very different guys and Ace is a much better bet... just think there are enough ifs that I might opt for a safer prospect.

I think the drawbacks with Kon are he likely isn't creating a ton without actions... but thats fine. The lateral movement, but he knows where to be (court mapping is the new buzzword in draft pods) and plays really hard and that can make up for a lot of issues.

GMs don't necessarily think this way but if I land #3 I am looking for a trade partner that will give me something to slide back a couple spots.

I get what you're saying. I've started to come to the conclusion that "ceiling" is kind of a useless term. For starters, what the hell do we even know about ceiling. SGA and Jokic are the two best players in the league, go back and look at their scouting reports to see how much we know about ceiling. Beyond that, why do we really care about the 100th percentile outcome when it's by definition an extremely unlikely outcome. Seems like we should do more focusing on what percentage of outcomes would represent something we'd call the result "high potential" instead of made up scenario where everything goes right. Sometimes I feel like people use a long list of "maybes" to signal high potential. It makes some sense, lot of room to improve right? But that's also means more things to improve on in order to get that All Star outcome.

There's no perfect way to judge potential, but generally I'd agree that we highly overate the "he's 6-8 with X wingspan and if he puts it together and fills out..." kind of thing. Ironically, the thing we underrate most is probably their ability to play basketball.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Listening to the Lowe/J Kyle Mann podcast on the draft. Lowe is saying a lot of teams are talking about Cedric Coward. Lowe says he expects him to be a first round pick based on the buzz he has heard.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I get what you're saying. I've started to come to the conclusion that "ceiling" is kind of a useless term. For starters, what the hell do we even know about ceiling. SGA and Jokic are the two best players in the league, go back and look at their scouting reports to see how much we know about ceiling. Beyond that, why do we really care about the 100th percentile outcome when it's by definition an extremely unlikely outcome. Seems like we should do more focusing on what percentage of outcomes would represent something we'd call the result "high potential" instead of made up scenario where everything goes right. Sometimes I feel like people use a long list of "maybes" to signal high potential. It makes some sense, lot of room to improve right? But that's also means more things to improve on in order to get that All Star outcome.

There's no perfect way to judge potential, but generally I'd agree that we highly overate the "he's 6-8 with X wingspan and if he puts it together and fills out..." kind of thing. Ironically, the thing we underrate most is probably their ability to play basketball.

That's really it. I think if you need to win a basketball game tomorrow and you get to choose any of the guys projected to be top 15 in this draft... how many players go in front of Kon? 2? I get that you are trying to predict the answer to that question 5 years from now but... dude just does a lot of things that could help you win and doesn't have like fatal flaws.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Listening to the Lowe/J Kyle Mann podcast on the draft. Lowe is saying a lot of teams are talking about Cedric Coward. Lowe says he expects him to be a first round pick based on the buzz he has heard.

Also gave the Ace measurements. They identified the Jazz as the team that most needs to win the lotto. Threw out that some of the Kon stuff in the midrange looks like Devin Booker. Mann was kind of weird when talking about Harper to Utah though. Was like "Harper doesn't fit with Sexton and Key". Homie... that ain't any kind of factor. Those guys may not be on the team in a year or two.

 

[KqWIN]

Looked into Coward and I'm buying the hype. Could move him into the top 15 of my big board.