Poll: Should the Jazz Match Hayward's $15.75 a year/4 year Contract?

[BTP]

A lot of people are saying this, but I'm not sure they understand the difference between short-run market price and long-run market price/short- and long-run value.

I know I understand the market and the projected developments and I'm pretty sure from all the convos I've had on this board that there are very little people who know free agent classes as well as I do.
I could give you a little discourse why this year's free agency has developed into such a mess.

 

[ema]

Dude, we have the Thriller.

Can I change sides?

Ahem..friend..cough..ly..fire..cough

 

[cowhide]

Has nothing to do with right side. I'm still waiting to see something smart from the anti-Hayward front.

What exactly would you do with the capspace that stays open by letting Hayward walk?

I just look at his '17 and '18 outs and I don't see a lot of valuable free agents then unless the SoBe-Mafia hands out some shady 3 years max deals and Derrick Rose has some weird reincarnation.
This year's free agency is a freak accident that none saw coming. Through a lot of unforeseen circumstances you had extra players and others becoming players towards end of the season.

So feel free to convince me what exactly you would do with the Jazz capspace when you let Gordon walk.

So your argument is just spend money because you have it.

1) Talk with Deng/Ariza to see if they were interested in playing with the Jazz.
2) If #1 isn't an option then Bring in a patchwork vet for 2 years, play Hood
3) Suck one more year and draft another SF next year - I heard this coming draft has several SF
4) Make a trade - take on a bad contract for a year and pick up some assets (this covers spending just to spend)
5) Extend Kanter and Burks
6) Give bonuses to all the players on the current Jazz roster.
7) Free agents next year Klay Thompson and Leonard. Give them the max.

 

[BTP]

Free agents aren't the only thing capspace can be used for. It can also be used to absorb bad contracts, helps a team in need of capspace and obtain players or draft picks we would otherwise have no way of receiving.



But I'm sure you already knew that.

Not going to be valuable. Teams that plan for 2016 are already in a good position. Other teams won't do the hassle to be in play for mid market free agents. Boozer/Amare/Bargs are the last high profile salary cap absorbs left in this summer.

 

[GVC]

So feel free to convince me what exactly you would do with the Jazz capspace when you let Gordon walk.

It's hard to say at this point. Just yesterday the Celts picked up a 1st round pick and young (potential) rotation big for absorbing an expiring contract. The Jazz picked up two 1st round picks last year for absorbing expiring contracts. The Rockets, Cavs and Warriors are still trying to work out deals that may require a third team to take on salary. That list may grow.

FWIW, the pro-Hayward front hasn't been offering much intelligent analysis either. Vague statements about "market price" and there being nothing immediately available, at least as far as the average fan knows, for cap space don't really add much to the conversation.

 

[framer]

Has nothing to do with right side. I'm still waiting to see something smart from the anti-Hayward front.

What exactly would you do with the capspace that stays open by letting Hayward walk?

I just look at his '17 and '18 outs and I don't see a lot of valuable free agents then unless the SoBe-Mafia hands out some shady 3 years max deals and Derrick Rose has some weird reincarnation.
This year's free agency is a freak accident that none saw coming. Through a lot of unforeseen circumstances you had extra players and others becoming players towards end of the season.

So feel free to convince me what exactly you would do with the Jazz capspace when you let Gordon walk.

Use it to pay Burks next season because he can get to the basket and finish. With the personnel that we have now, Hayward's fit isn't worth Max salary, even if you could argue that he personally is. Cause the thing is that you can't build an offense around him. That much is perfectly clear. You can build an offense around Burks who has isolation skills and that makes him far more valuable to this particular team. The Hornets just need someone on the parameter to figure things out if Al ever passes it back out. Hayward is good at that. You can't give a high value contract to both Burks and Hayward. How many more games do you think Hayward wins us next year? How many more games do you feel he wins the Hornets?

 

[BTP]

For me it comes down to one thing, yes the Jazz can afford to pay Hayward, yes there is a cap minimum limit that needs to be met, yes the Jazz will miss some of the things Hayward does, but the one glaring problem I have with giving Hayward the max is he hasn't earned it. You do not overpay for anything if you are smart.

I lived in CA during the last housing madness 2004-2005, people were bidding against each other for housing paying thousands of $$$$ more than a house was worth. Guess what happened the recession and then people who had paid these crazy prices were under water and couldn't get rid of their houses. This is how Jazz fans are going to feel if they give Hayward the Max and he plays like he has or even worse continues to get worse as a shooter. He is going to be the same target he was before when he said he wasn't getting the same shots and that was why he struggled. I am certain that the Jazz are going to go against conventional wisdom and give Hayward the max. I can only imagine how miserable Hayward is going to be when he starts slowly again and starts clanking shots.

I hope I am wrong and Quin works his magic and Hayward becomes the player many people think he is. However, it won't change my belief that an organization should never pay a player Max money on potential. It is time for Gordon to step up and play at the level he wants to get paid.

Bad analogy. Players aren't property. They are rental.

More like a bad 3/4 year rental contract and then you renegotiate in a different environment that projects to be more friendly for franchises.

 

[BTP]

It's hard to say at this point. Just yesterday the Celts picked up a 1st round pick and young (potential) rotation big for absorbing an expiring contract. The Jazz picked up two 1st round picks last year for absorbing expiring contracts. The Rockets, Cavs and Warriors are still trying to work out deals that may require a third team to take on salary. That list may grow.

FWIW, the pro-Hayward front hasn't been offering much intelligent analysis either. Vague statements about "market price" and there being nothing immediately available, at least as far as the average fan knows, for cap space don't really add much to the conversation.

They picked it up because this year is such a mess. Not because Cleveland plans for next year. They clearly do not.

I would be in favor of collecting a huge cap space rental return. But I don't see that before Melo resigns with New York. And then Philly is the cheaper whore most likely.

 

[ema]

Has nothing to do with right side. I'm still waiting to see something smart from the anti-Hayward front.

What exactly would you do with the capspace that stays open by letting Hayward walk?

I just look at his '17 and '18 outs and I don't see a lot of valuable free agents then unless the SoBe-Mafia hands out some shady 3 years max deals and Derrick Rose has some weird reincarnation.
This year's free agency is a freak accident that none saw coming. Through a lot of unforeseen circumstances you had extra players and others becoming players towards end of the season.

So feel free to convince me what exactly you would do with the Jazz capspace when you let Gordon walk.

I would pay off my debts, buy my first house and car, invest some for my projects, put some money into the kids college funds for my future toddlers, adopt an African child and donate a couple millions for the cancer researches.

Maybe I would also buy some Luol Deng and a specialist three point shooter for the Jazz, while I'm at it. All of that at around, hmm, Gordo-Max?

 

[BTP]

Use it to pay Burks next season because he can get to the basket and finish. With the personnel that we have now, Hayward's fit isn't worth Max salary, even if you could argue that he personally is. Cause the thing is that you can't build an offense around him. That much is perfectly clear. You can build an offense around Burks who has isolation skills and that makes him far more valuable to this particular team. The Hornets just need someone on the parameter to figure things out if Al ever passes it back out. Hayward is good at that. You can't give a high value contract to both Burks and Hayward. How many more games do you think Hayward wins us next year? How many more games do you feel he wins the Hornets?

Look at next summer. Who's going to have capspace to throw money at Burks. Name me one franchise and I'll analyze the situation for you. If there's none the Jazz are bidding against themselves. And Lindsey has been very tough in negotiations so far from where I look at it.

 

[Game6Conley]

Has nothing to do with right side. I'm still waiting to see something smart from the anti-Hayward front.

What exactly would you do with the capspace that stays open by letting Hayward walk?

Trevor Ariza is reportedly looking for 9-11 million per year.


Id also Pick up Francisco Garcia on a vet min or close deal, he can still give 15-20 mins per night of decent 3 and d ball. Kent Bazemore. Tyler Honeycutt if Bazemore and Garcia are off the market.

Whats wrong with keeping a big chunk of the $ and staying flexible til next years free agent period? maybe the Jazz can finagle another 2017 1st round pick in exchange for cap space in the meantime.

The Jazz could start next offseason by offering on a wave of Restricted guys, then go after a Center, like Brook Lopez.

 

[The Midnight]

Look at next summer. Who's going to have capspace to throw money at Burks. Name me one franchise and I'll analyze the situation for you. If there's none the Jazz are bidding against themselves. And Lindsey has been very tough in negotiations so far from where I look at it.

LOL.. CHA for one if we're matching Hayward the way you're wanting us to this year.

 

[BTP]

I would pay off my debts, buy my first house and car, invest some for my projects, put some money into the kids college funds for my future toddlers, adopt an African child and donate a couple millions for the cancer researches.

Maybe I would also buy some Luol Deng and a specialist three point shooter for the Jazz, while I'm at it. All of that at around, hmm, Gordo-Max?

Deng hasn't signaled interest until now and doesn't fit the championship window. I'd say yes to Luol because I both like him as a player and as a person. But not instead of Gordon, but on top of him. Will do some calculations now.

One thing that I feel is a genereally accepted truth here:
Gordon's price tag doesn't deserve an upside component because he's got horrible measurements, mediocre athleticism and is a white player whose game depends more on skill and finesse.

I think his contract will be sub optimal but far from horrible from a value to price ratio

 

[BTP]

Trevor Ariza is reportedly looking for 9-11 million per year.


Id also Pick up Francisco Garcia on a vet min or close deal, he can still give 15-20 mins per night of decent 3 and d ball.

Whats wrong with keeping a big chunk of the $ and staying flexible til next years free agent period? maybe the Jazz can finagle another 2017 1st round pick in exchange for cap space.

The Jazz could start next offseason by offering on a wave of Restricted guys, then go after a Center, like Brook Lopez.

I like Hayward's upside over Ariza, who has already proven twice to be a contract year only player. I'm not taking that risk. Ariza also doesn't fit the contention window.

Garcia is minimum contract guy. Well then tell me which restricted/unrestricted guys you wanna target in 2015. Vague again.

It's possible Lopez opts out. But that requires him to be completely healthy next year. And then again with quadruple ankle injuries he's not going to get value that matches his potential production. Even if healthy if his agent doesn't find a deal through backchannels or below the table in advance, Lopez is better off proving he's healthy.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I don't see things so much as an anti-Hayward vs. pro-Hayward thing.. I think just about everyone really likes Hayward.

It seems to me to be more of which way you decide to gamble. And because I don't see how signing Hayward to a max helps us win much in the next four years, I prefer to gamble that the flexibility is the way to go.

Pretty easy decision for this 'casual fan.'

 

[framer]

Look at next summer. Who's going to have capspace to throw money at Burks. Name me one franchise and I'll analyze the situation for you. If there's none the Jazz are bidding against themselves. And Lindsey has been very tough in negotiations so far from where I look at it.

Lessee, the Blazers, Lakers, Suns, Spurs, Raptors, Heat, Sixers, and Magic for starters, plus anyone that can use those teams to create cap space. (obviously some of these teams fight fill some of that space between now and then. . .) Also, the Knicks even if they sign Carmelo.

On the flip side, you could use that cap space to make a run at Wesley Matthews if you fancied him who will be an RFA next year.

 

[BTP]

LOL.. CHA for one if we're matching Hayward the way you're wanting us to this year.

Charlotte won't have too much need for Burks. Gordon is the perfect playmaker for them. Burks just replaces Henderson.

ALso next year they'll have to juggle with huge capholds of Kemba(around $10M off the top of my head), Jefferson opt out($13.5M) and potentially Henderson($6M).

But they could potentially do it. Just don't see the fit.

I think they'll deal Haywood's amnesty non guaranteed contract around the deadline. Will be huge cap relieve for whoever buys it.

 

[ema]

Deng hasn't signaled interest until now and doesn't fit the championship window. I'd say yes to Luol because I both like him as a player and as a person. But not instead of Gordon, but on top of him. Will do some calculations now.

One thing that I feel is a genereally accepted truth here:
Gordon's price tag doesn't deserve an upside component because he's got horrible measurements, mediocre athleticism and is a white player whose game depends more on skill and finesse.

I think his contract will be sub optimal but far from horrible from a value to price ratio

What's your projections with the contention window, I mean specifically the time span and all?

Deng or Hayward, I don't see us above mediocrity anywhere near soon, either way. First round survivers at best. Even if we are competitive after a couple years, I see Hayward as just a nice piece for us, a contender team, but he's not essential(irreplaceable I mean) in my opinion. I've always argued for reducing the role of Hayward on the team. Point forward doesn't work in the NBA unless you have it in Lebron James or you have a highly innovative game style ala Magic with Dwight/Hedo plus shooters.

And, in case just you don't know, I'm a Gordo lover, I like versatile, finesse and smart players and I always thought he was underrated in the forum.

 

[Game6Conley]

I like Hayward's upside over Ariza, who has already proven twice to be a contract year only player. I'm not taking that risk. Ariza also doesn't fit the contention window.

Garcia is minimum contract guy. Well then tell me which restricted/unrestricted guys you wanna target in 2015. Vague again.

It's possible Lopez opts out. But that requires him to be completely healthy next year. And then again with quadruple ankle injuries he's not going to get value that matches his potential production. Even if healthy if his agent doesn't find a deal through backchannels or below the table in advance, Lopez is better off proving he's healthy.

Trevor Ariza has won a championship, hes had injuries that coincided with his down years, you forget key points like that in your all seeing analysis.

Everyone talks of 3 and D players around here, but clearly the overall sentiment is yall prefer Hayward.

You are flat out wrong about Brook Lopez, if hes healthy and normal he will EASILY get the max, at this point in his career, hes bigger and stronger than most every C, Lopez is like Prime Yao on offense. He punked the Jazz bigmen so bad last year, he barely needed to play in the 2nd half.

Lopez is my preferred Bigman in the 2015 class but IIRC theres a bunch of them, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Asik, enough where if the Jazz had 30 mil in space they could throw out a bunch of offers to worthy players.

Theres a ton of mid-level guys that are interesting; Wesley Matthews, Marco Bellineli, Danny Green, Thaddeus Young

Tobias Harris and Reggie Jackson are restricted. Faried too.

Goran Dragic will opt out, Gerald Green will be on the market, if he has another efficient year, I'd sign him to a decent sized deal no problems.

Maybe even a Gerald Henderson, or Gary Neal. Demarre Carrol, Paul Millsap and Rajon Rondo will be unrestricted aswell.

I can find 100's of scenarios that i prefer over giving Hayward 63 mil, tbh, some of it might take 1 year of patience, but the Tank would strengthen as a result too.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Trevor Ariza has won championships, hes had injuries that coincided with his down years, you forget key points like that in your all seeing analysis.

Everyone talks of 3 and D players around here, but clearly the overall sentiment is yall prefer Hayward.

You are flat out wrong about Brook Lopez, if hes healthy and normal he will EASILY get the max, at this point in his career, hes bigger and stronger than most every C, Lopez is like Prime Yao on offense. He punked the Jazz bigmen so bad last year, he barely needed to play in the 2nd half.

Lopez is my preferred Bigman in the 2015 class but IIRC theres a bunch of them, LaMarcus Aldridge, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Asik, enough where if the Jazz had 30 mil in space they could throw out a bunch of offers to worthy players.

Theres a ton of mid-level guys that are interesting; Wesley Matthews, Marco Bellineli, Danny Green, Thaddeus Young

Tobias Harris and Reggie Jackson are restricted. Faried too.

Goran Dragic will opt out, Gerald Green will be on the market, if he has another efficient year, I'd sign him to a decent sized deal no problems.

Maybe even a Gerald Henderson, or Gary Neal. Demarre Carrol, Paul Millsap and Rajon Rondo will be unrestricted aswell.

I can find 100's of scenarios that i prefer over giving Hayward 63 mil, tbh, some of it might take 1 year of patience, but the Tank would strengthen as a result too.

Damn.. gotta spread my seed. Nice post.

Also, if we don't match and make no other moves, how far below the minimum are we?