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2019 trade deadline discussion

I don't think we are going to let either Favors or Rubio go so we can over pay Middleton. Unless Favors gets hurt.

I think Favors stays in Utah and is our primary PF for both years unless he gets injured.

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LoPo said:
I'm just throwing ideas out there because I don't believe we are changing the roster much the next two years. I don't think we are players in 2019 free agency. Lastly, I think we need another asset if we do try to pull off a trade for a player who improves the team.

This will all become obvious when we extend or re-sign Rubio and match on Favors' deal next July. At that point, we won't have cap space to sign anybody substantial and we are going to wish we had another asset.

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A couple things I have brought up before but still matter. We can't beat the asset collection of Boston or Philly or even the Lakers. Unless we are getting back a potential top 5ish pick (which we are not), that's the hard truth. Secondly, the point of the non-guaranteed year on Favors contract, and not signing anybody except for Exum (who the Jazz obviously believe to be part of the core) is to have the flexibility to offer somebody next offseason. It doesn't really matter how unlikely you think it is for a star to come here, the chances drop to 0% if you don't even have the space. The Jazz put themselves in a win-win position with the Favors deal I believe, because they can fall back on that if nobody signs and try again in 2020 FA.

TL;DR. The Jazz aren't giving up their flexibility.
 
I agree with what you are saying @MDAV28. My personal opinion is that we aren't going to let Favors and Rubio go. So we won't have much cap space anyway. If that's the case, get an asset now.

And I'm not talking about going after a Parsons deal anyway. I'm talking about a minor deal like adding Dellie's $9.6. If we can get into the mid-teens from the mid-20's in 2020 because we took Dellie now, it could be a good trade chip or draft pick at a time when we are gonna start aging in the post.

I just refuse to believe that Rubio and Favors are going anywhere. I mean, check this out:

We are just going to cut him or Rubio next summer to sign a guy like Middleton?

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I genuinely don't see Rubio or Favors going anywhere at this point unless that is for the elusive 3rd superstar (not all-star, but top 10 type). The main thing is both above-average players who can be reasonably be expected to make a jump next year. Rubio is the closest because all he has to do is continue his shooting from last year and take an extra shot or two. A 18 PPG average puts him at that production tier we need to ease the burden on Mitchell. If Favors could gain a reasonable corner 3, he could also be there as he'll get more looks in the Jazz offense.

If both manage to do it? Oh mama.....
 
LoPo said:
What do we think Rubio will get per year in an extension? $18 on a declining contract? Maybe $18, $17, $16, team option $16?

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The cap will jump by about 6 to 7m next year (estimate was 108m) and he's the only starter without a contract going into that season. Burks, Thabo, and Udo are expiring. So that's about 22m in space I believe, accounding for expirings and the salary cap rise. Rubio may get the same sort of deal as Favors at about 18 to 20m. I imagine the Jazz will try to make it declining and with some options, but they won't overly push the matter. Rubio wasn't as critical as Gobert to last year's run, but if he manages to continue that Steph Curry impersonation he was doing last year, the Jazz are going to lock him up. He's happy, we're happy, fan's are happy, and the club is winning. Do what works.

Edit: Sorry, forgot the boy band potential between him, Niang, and Neto. Cut him in for some of the merch revenue and he'll be good.
 
LoPo said:
I agree with what you are saying @MDAV28. My personal opinion is that we aren't going to let Favors and Rubio go. So we won't have much cap space anyway. If that's the case, get an asset now.

And I'm not talking about going after a Parsons deal anyway. I'm talking about a minor deal like adding Dellie's $9.6. If we can get into the mid-teens from the mid-20's in 2020 because we took Dellie now, it could be a good trade chip or draft pick at a time when we are gonna start aging in the post.

I just refuse to believe that Rubio and Favors are going anywhere. I mean, check this out:

We are just going to cut him or Rubio next summer to sign a guy like Middleton?

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Your order of operations is what is mixing you up. The Jazz will pursue a star and if none bite, then they will guarantee Faves and figure out Rubio, not vice-versa.

Just consider this free agency period. I'm sure the Jazz reached out to the big names agents and that wasn't reported because there was no interest. But we did hear about Mitchell publicly recruiting PG, which of course the Jazz would have to be OK with. If PG were to sign here, Faves would have been gone. It's the same situation the next 2 offseaons while Mitch is on his rookie deal.

You are probably right that the Jazz are going to keep Favors and re-up Rubio, but that's plan B.
 
MDAV28 said:
Your order of operations is what is mixing you up. The Jazz will pursue a star and if none bite, then they will guarantee Faves and figure out Rubio, not vice-versa.

Just consider this free agency period. I'm sure the Jazz reached out to the big names agents and that wasn't reported because there was no interest. But we did hear about Mitchell publicly recruiting PG, which of course the Jazz would have to be OK with. If PG were to sign here, Faves would have been gone. It's the same situation the next 2 offseaons while Mitch is on his rookie deal.

You are probably right that the Jazz are going to keep Favors and re-up Rubio, but that's plan B.
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Well said. The Jazz FO has built in flexibility for a reason. They will see if they can find a way to use it. Obviously we learn a whole bunch this year based upon how folks perform. IMO, the decision on Rubio is still yet to be determined. If he plays the way he did the end of last year he is a keeper. If not, we have assets that make more sense.
 
idestroyedthetoilet said:
Favors>Millsap. And he's younger. And he's STILL improving. And he's a helluva lot cheaper.

I'd take Tobias but not for Favors. G-F-T would be a great big man rotation that could fill up all 96 minutes. Add in Udoh, Thabo and Jae for depth and Utah could lower the bigs' minutes all season and keep them healthy.

Exum, draft pick, filler for Tobias.

Rubio, Neto, Allen
DM, Ingles, Burks
Ingles, O'Neale, Thabo, Jae
Favors(16), Harris(20), Thabo, Jae (12 combined minutes)
Gobert (30) Favors(10), Udoh (8)

2 roster spots open to solidify the shooting guard position.
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How are you okay with trading for Tobias and then giving him 20 minutes a game? Lol
 
LoPo said:
We are just going to cut him or Rubio next summer to sign a guy like Middleton?

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Maybe not. But what if it was a guy like butler or Klay? I think the answer would be a definitive yes.
 
MDAV28 said:
Your order of operations is what is mixing you up. The Jazz will pursue a star and if none bite, then they will guarantee Faves and figure out Rubio, not vice-versa.

Just consider this free agency period. I'm sure the Jazz reached out to the big names agents and that wasn't reported because there was no interest. But we did hear about Mitchell publicly recruiting PG, which of course the Jazz would have to be OK with. If PG were to sign here, Faves would have been gone. It's the same situation the next 2 offseaons while Mitch is on his rookie deal.

You are probably right that the Jazz are going to keep Favors and re-up Rubio, but that's plan B.
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This.
Jazz are killing it right now in almost every way. A big name SHOULD want to come here next summer. Whether they actually will or not is uncertain. Glad we have the max contract money available to find out though.
 
Imo the drafting of Allen & the re-signing of Exum make it unlikely that Rubio is still in the long-term plans. If the right deal were to present itself prior to the deadline, I'm not sure he even makes it thru the entire season. Favors as well.

If it doesn't, I wouldn't be surprised to see DL let him (& Favors) walk at the end of the season. Although, if there isn't a worthwhile FA target, I could easily see him trying to convince Rubio to sign a contract similar to Favors' in order to remain competitive while still maintaining that long-term flexibility. And in that case, I'd expect Favors' opt to be picked up.

DL has done a great job positioning us to be competitive now, with room to grow, & the resources/flexibility to capitalize if an opportunity presents itself. It'll be interesting to see what direction he ultimately takes.
 
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karl malone said:
Imo the drafting of Allen & the re-signing of Exum make it unlikely that Rubio is still in the long-term plans. If the right deal were to present itself prior to the deadline, I'm not sure he even makes it thru the entire season. Favors as well.

If it doesn't, I wouldn't be surprised to see DL let him walk at the end of the season. Although, if there isn't a worthwhile FA target, I could easily see him trying to convince Rubio to sign a contract similar to Favors' in order to maintain flexibility while retaining a quality player who fits the team culture.

DL has done a great job positioning us to be competitive now, with room to grow & the flexibility/resources to capitalize if an opportunity presents itself. It'll be interesting to see what direction he ultimately takes.
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Yeah....no chance in hell.

During the first half of last season, everyone and their mother were complaining about a lack of spacing for a Favors/Gobert tandem and the lack of production from the 1 as a culprit. It was pretty obvious. Now, consider that the Jazz ripped 30-6 to close the season. Gobert coming back was the biggest reason, but there were other factors to. Since Jan 11 to the end of the season, Rubio shot 41+% from 3. So much happened because of this. It removed some pressure off of Donovan, created space because the opponent's PG could not dare him to shoot anymore, and the Jazz's overall offensive efficiency increased greatly. Basically, he became a complete PG. After the all-star break, he upped his percentages across the board and increased his PPG to about 15 per game. Also, when the Jazz win, the strongest correlation comes to this because he averaged 15.1 in our victories to 10.5 with corresponding increases in his percentages and traditional metrics.

Now I love both Exum and Allen. But Allen is a combo guard in the mold of Donovan to a point. He has good play making chops and a great form on shot. But he is hitting exactly **** right now. This is partly due to his injury because he can't all the lift he wants from his legs, but it's not inspiring confidence right now. And his defense needs a lot of work, if to approach Rubio's at all. Exum is the complete opposite right now. Great raw athleticism, fantastic D (probably better than Rubio, but Ricky isn't bad here at all), but he needs to be healthy and he needs to learn how to shoot. That will take a while.

Both are possible replacements for Ricky, but they are at least a couple of years out before that happens. I can see the Jazz working a deal like they did with Favors. But there is NO chance they are letting him walk unless he does it himself.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
How are you okay with trading for Tobias and then giving him 20 minutes a game? Lol
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I cant justify cutting back any more of Favors or Goberts minutes. I can't justify altering one of the league's best teams significantly for a Harris downgrade on both ends of the floor. But that's something the slaves to the Stretch Four or Bust Infatuation Plantation can't wrap their wet panty flaps around.
 
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I don’t see Harris and Favors as being mutually exclusive. I see Harris as an upgrade to the minutes we are getting from Sef and Crowder, not as a replacement for Favors.

In my mind, you can give them both a lot of minutes. Favs and Harris are 1a and 1b at the 4, but Favs also plays a lot at backup 5.

Having Favors and Harris (or a guy like Harris) would make for a lot interesting lineup options, no?

I think there are ways of making the team better without giving up Mitchell, Rudy, Rubio, Ingles, Exum, or Favors (guys I see as the core right now), but it’s going to require the right deal to come along for the right player.

What this team needs to become elite is a little bit more shooting and scoring (i.e. a legitimate stretch 4 option and/or a wing bench scorer like Barton or Tyreke Evans). If we’re patient, the right deal will probably come around.
 
In response to stormofwar:

If Rubio isn't willing to sign a 1+1 type deal similar to Favors, I see them letting him walk before I could see them committing long-term $. A combination of DM/Exum/Allen is more than capable of holding down the PG spot long-term imo, which is why I expect them to at least explore his trade market at the deadline. Although that could change if Exum gets injured, Allen isn't ready for a substantial role, we're legitimate contenders, etc.
 
MDAV28 said:
Your order of operations is what is mixing you up. The Jazz will pursue a star and if none bite, then they will guarantee Faves and figure out Rubio, not vice-versa.

Just consider this free agency period. I'm sure the Jazz reached out to the big names agents and that wasn't reported because there was no interest. But we did hear about Mitchell publicly recruiting PG, which of course the Jazz would have to be OK with. If PG were to sign here, Faves would have been gone. It's the same situation the next 2 offseaons while Mitch is on his rookie deal.

You are probably right that the Jazz are going to keep Favors and re-up Rubio, but that's plan B.
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If we make a trade now picking up a $10 million contract for 2019/20, we can still make the financial moves necessary to pick up the big player. We have the ability to make max money available if we add $10 million of 2019/20 money right now.

HOWEVER, we cannot pick up an asset for a bad contract if we wait until summer. That's why I say do it now.

The asset you know you have is many times better than the asset you hope you have.
 
karl malone said:
In response to stormofwar:

If Rubio isn't willing to sign a 1+1 type deal similar to Favors, I see them letting him walk before I could see them committing long-term $. A combination of DM/Exum/Allen is more than capable of holding down the PG spot long-term imo, which is why I expect them to at least explore his trade market at the deadline. Although that could change if Exum gets injured, Allen isn't ready for a substantial role, we're legitimate contenders, etc.
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Perhaps. But Exum and Allen has a LONG way to go before superseding Ricky in any capacity and that needs to happen before the Jazz trade him unless it's for another PG. Exum is closer right now, but he can't shoot for **** at the moment. I can see the Jazz doing a 1+1 to keep flexibility. That actually would be smart. But I don't see them letting him walk unless he wants max dollars/max years.
 
TheStormofWar said:
Perhaps. But Exum and Allen has a LONG way to go before superseding Ricky in any capacity and that needs to happen before the Jazz trade him unless it's for another PG. Exum is closer right now, but he can't shoot for **** at the moment. I can see the Jazz doing a 1+1 to keep flexibility. That actually would be smart. But I don't see them letting him walk unless he wants max dollars/max years.
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I wouldn't be surprised if a 1+1 deal is actually DL's preference but unless he views Rubio as the difference between legitimately contending vs a 1st/2nd rd exit (or he already has a handshake agreement in place), I don't see him risking allowing a solid trade asset to walk for nothing or having to commit substantial $ for multiple years in order to retain him. Especially when he just invested in 2 younger guys who are both under contract long-term & capable of playing his position.

I'm personally high on Allen's ability to play the point & I'm not overly concerned about his current shooting drought. And while he clearly has work to do on the defensive end, Exum & DM's ability to defend the tougher opposing backcourt assignment will help to mask that. Also, Ingles' ability to initiate the offense would help lessen the potential loss of Rubio as well imo.

Unless it becomes apparent that he's the difference between a playoff berth vs just missing out, which is possible as the West is ridiculous, I believe DL would pull the trigger on a Rubio (&/or Favors) trade if a longer-term asset is on the table. If a reasonable deal isn't available & Rubio isn't receptive to a 1+1, I see him being allowed to walk ala Millsap/Jefferson before I can see DL extending a large, multi-year contract offer as he's clearly not that 3rd championship piece imo.
 
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