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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

KqWIN said:
I actually thought his 3 pointer was the only good thing he had going for him….he was terrible in college. But he was also only 31% in GLeague iirc. He’s probably on a serious hot streak right now and will cool down, but he’s still proving himself to be a much better player than I expected. This is the type of miss that makes you have to reconsider the way you evaluate.
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Were you not one of the loud people who kept bringing up % for GG? Me and @Ferguson_Mellochill always said the aesthetics of his shot/moves were great
 
Since we as the ASB, here is my lottery re-draft:

  1. Wemby
  2. Miler
  3. Keyonte
  4. GG
  5. Jaquez
  6. Bilal
  7. Lively
  8. Amen
  9. Ausar
  10. Podz
  11. Scoot
  12. Black
  13. Whitmore
  14. Jarace

Still have a hard time figuring out Amen/Ausar. Generational athletes with generational activity levels, but generationally bad shooters.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Were you not one of the loud people who kept bringing up % for GG? Me and @Ferguson_Mellochill always said the aesthetics of his shot/moves were great
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I’m sure if you look back, it will mention how I thought his spot up 3 was good. His catch and shoot numbers were not that bad iirc. For the %’s, I was probably talking about his off the dribble stuff which I had no belief in. Like I thought it was strange that people were giving him free as an off the bounce shooter who scored at 3 levels when he made like 25% of them.
 
I watched OKC at HOU last night and it was a tale of two halfs. In the first half Amen and Whitmore looked like future all stars and were winning the game for the Rockets. In the second half Cam was making a bunch of mistakes and Amen's lack of shooting really hurt their spacing.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
GG Jackson being such a great 3pt shooter is wild.

Mediocre college 3pt shooter without great FT indicators. Still a mediocre FT shooter at the NBA level, yet the 3pt shot doesnt look like a fluke. It's a beautiful shot.
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There were two indicators: a) that GG was shooting a respectable 36% on catch-and-shoot 3s, and b) that he was doing this in the SEC as barely an 18 y.o.
 
I'm not seeing a lot of complete busts out of this draft. There are guys who will not live up to their draft position, but almost the entire first round looks like they belong.
 
With Brice looking like an NBA player the list of potential busts from this draft are dwindling. Even Kris Murray, who would be one of the top guys on the list for me, has had a couple of solid games.

To be fair there are still some guys we haven't seen enough of, which is a bad sign for them. There are also guys who won't improve as expected or fall off a cliff. We probably won't be able to have a really good idea on busts until after next season. As it stands today, there are very few first rounders who I don't think will become NBA rotation level players.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
If there's a surprise player in this draft who would end up going top 5 in a redraft a few years down the line, that player is probably Brice Sensabaugh.
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Just a reminder that Brice Sensabaugh is a 19 year-old, 6'6", 230-lb wing with 52/41/83 shooting splits. He should be a bonafide floor spacer and shouldn't be overlooked in the "Who's the best shooter in the draft?" discussion. He's also got potential to improve his strength and athleticism, and he should be able to get to the rim better in the NBA.

If the Jazz are drafting mid-first, he ought to be on people's short list.
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
I'm genuinely curious to know what the front office thinks about Sensabaugh. He's not a complete player at this point, but he's one of the best shooters and most polished offensive players in the draft.
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Hmm.
 
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One of the rabbit holes I've been looking in to is how to normalize production for low usage players. Specifically as most know I'm a Cason Wallace fan, and his production per minute is low, but mostly because he never touches the ball. OKCs offense runs through SGA and Jalen Williams and Wallace ranks as one of the lowest touches per minute rookies that gets playing time. There is a points per touch metric on NBA.com, but there isn't an assists per touch stat, so I had to create one. Basically I just took the assists/minute and touches/minute to figure out assists/touch. Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Sasser
- Podz
- Porter Jr.
- Andre Jackson Jr
- Scoot
- Keyonte

From here I created a "production per touch" statistic that is calculated as pts + 2.4ast per touch. (2.4 is the average pts per assist). Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Cam Whitmore
- Grady Dick
- Wemby
- Cason Wallace
- Jalen Wilson
- Jordan Hawkins

Lead guards, or guys who take the ball up the floor should probably be put in to a different category for this stat, since they will be penalized for touching the ball during parts of the offense where they shouldn't be expected to produce. On the other hand the counting stats sometimes are swayed in their favor since they have more opportunities to be part of the offense.

Thoughts?
 
SoberasHotRod said:
One of the rabbit holes I've been looking in to is how to normalize production for low usage players. Specifically as most know I'm a Cason Wallace fan, and his production per minute is low, but mostly because he never touches the ball. OKCs offense runs through SGA and Jalen Williams and Wallace ranks as one of the lowest touches per minute rookies that gets playing time. There is a points per touch metric on NBA.com, but there isn't an assists per touch stat, so I had to create one. Basically I just took the assists/minute and touches/minute to figure out assists/touch. Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Sasser
- Podz
- Porter Jr.
- Andre Jackson Jr
- Scoot
- Keyonte

From here I created a "production per touch" statistic that is calculated as pts + 2.4ast per touch. (2.4 is the average pts per assist). Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Cam Whitmore
- Grady Dick
- Wemby
- Cason Wallace
- Jalen Wilson
- Jordan Hawkins

Lead guards, or guys who take the ball up the floor should probably be put in to a different category for this stat, since they will be penalized for touching the ball during parts of the offense where they shouldn't be expected to produce. On the other hand the counting stats sometimes are swayed in their favor since they have more opportunities to be part of the offense.

Thoughts?
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That's a great stat to find good trade targets.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
One of the rabbit holes I've been looking in to is how to normalize production for low usage players. Specifically as most know I'm a Cason Wallace fan, and his production per minute is low, but mostly because he never touches the ball. OKCs offense runs through SGA and Jalen Williams and Wallace ranks as one of the lowest touches per minute rookies that gets playing time. There is a points per touch metric on NBA.com, but there isn't an assists per touch stat, so I had to create one. Basically I just took the assists/minute and touches/minute to figure out assists/touch. Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Sasser
- Podz
- Porter Jr.
- Andre Jackson Jr
- Scoot
- Keyonte

From here I created a "production per touch" statistic that is calculated as pts + 2.4ast per touch. (2.4 is the average pts per assist). Here are the leaders from the 2023 class:

- Cam Whitmore
- Grady Dick
- Wemby
- Cason Wallace
- Jalen Wilson
- Jordan Hawkins

Lead guards, or guys who take the ball up the floor should probably be put in to a different category for this stat, since they will be penalized for touching the ball during parts of the offense where they shouldn't be expected to produce. On the other hand the counting stats sometimes are swayed in their favor since they have more opportunities to be part of the offense.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Good stuff. I love this kind of data
Surprised Grady Dick is so high
Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk
 
Some may depend on the offense and the coach. Some young players may be literally told not to shoot unless it's an uncontested dunk. Some guys are given the green light.
 
Here is the stat for Jazz Players. Stay tuned though because I just read the glossary definition of "touches" which I thought only referred to offensive touches, but it appears it could mean any touches. I'm going to have to figure out how to factor in stocks and rebounds.

1710181830449.png
 
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