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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

stitches said:
I still think it's better than average, not just better than last year's draft(which is pretty low bar). I like the 3-8 better than most year's 3-8 too... I have to go through some more players to be able to pass judgement on the rest of the lottery.
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Cool, it's obviously subjective.

In my opinion there are good players in the lottery, but I think the guys we are looking at in the 3-5 range would be in the 6-10 range in a normal draft, and then everything else would be shifted down. For example Fears is getting talked about in the 5-8 range, where in a normal draft he would be late lotto.

There are also just a lot of players in this draft that were very productive, but have questionable NBA fit. So maybe they get in the right situation and this draft looks great in 5 years, or maybe they just don't work in the NBA.
 
idiot said:
Sam & Bryce on Game Theory Podcast talking about how unplayable Mathurin has been recently because of slow processing, avoidable mistakes, etc. Though they didn't use the term, I think they're talking about how he's not a 16-game player, even though he's done OK on the 82 games (and has a lot of undeniable talent).

How heavy should we think about this in the way we draft? Is it possible to predict (semi-) accurately who's going to be the ones that make too many mistakes to be trusted in the playoffs?

(Discussion starts about 19:30 mark)
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Everyone in this class is reasonably smart to very smart (Flagg, Harper, CMB, and VJ are very very smart) in the lottery with the exception of Ace Bailey and maybe Noa (haven't watched Noa play yet).

There's a couple guys outside the lottery that have questions, of course. Drake Powell and Cedric Coward are guys the Jazz could draft at 21 that have questions about their on-court feel for the game.
 
stitches said:
I think I would take about 7 players in this draft before I would have taken anyone from last year's draft. I liked Castle best last year... I think I probably take Flagg, Harper, Johnson, VJ, Ace, Kon, Fears ...(and still haven't watched Queen and Jakucionis) before Castle
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I believe you will like Jakucionis. Not sure how you feel about Queen. He is kinda polarizing opinions.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Cool, it's obviously subjective.

In my opinion there are good players in the lottery, but I think the guys we are looking at in the 3-5 range would be in the 6-10 range in a normal draft, and then everything else would be shifted down. For example Fears is getting talked about in the 5-8 range, where in a normal draft he would be late lotto.

There are also just a lot of players in this draft that were very productive, but have questionable NBA fit. So maybe they get in the right situation and this draft looks great in 5 years, or maybe they just don't work in the NBA.
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Just listing 5th picks.
  • 2023 Ausar Thompson
  • 2022 Jaden Ivey
  • 2021 Jalen Suggs
  • 2020 Isaac Okoro
  • 2019 Darius Garland
  • 2018 Trae Young
  • 2017 De'Aaron Fox
All of those were pretty flawed prospects. Half couldnt shoot and other half were undersized (some severely). Ivey may have been the best prospect of those on paper but he was pretty similar to VJ except better scoring & burst and lower BBIQ.

I think its rather rare to have 5 guys who have good to great size, good to great athleticism and good to great projected shooting in the same year. Usually at 5 we are making more compromises on those 3 areas.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
You are comparing against a bad draft, Vecine is comparing against an average draft.

I think this draft is very good at 1, normal for 2, weaker than the average draft in the 3-14 range and then, good again in the 15-25 range.
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I guess it depends who you have in the 3-5 range. I think this is a very strong draft the top. Honestly, from about 9-25 or so there isn’t a ton of drop off. So I agree with you it’s average around the 9-14 range then good in the 15-25 range.
 
How much should roster construction fit be considered with this pick? For example I would love if the Jazz drafted Tre Johnson. But would VJ Edgecombe be a better roster fit if you still believe in the Jazz's last two lottery picks? Imagine having VJ and Hendricks out on the perimeter defensively with Kessler backing them up? I know Cody Williams was very bad last year no argument here, but what if he comes into camp more muscular, better body, improves on shooting and handle?

If the Jazz do trade Lauri which I believe they should, and Cody and Taylor both come back improved now you have the makings of a potentially very good defensive lineup if you add VJ Edgecombe.

One thing the Jazz have shown with their top lottery picks is they like length, athleticism, and potential two way ability. Prior to playing in the NBA both Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams were thought to have that potential. Now it may never materialize for one or both of them but if your still a believer in both then adding a guy like VJ is quite tempting. Regardless I think the Jazz are in a fine spot and will get a very good player no matter if it's Tre, VJ or Ace. The team is signaling they are going to tank again next year so let's just continue to add talent and build this roster up. I'm just wondering with the pieces we currently have, who would be the best fit. They are all extremely talented players
 
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SoberasHotRod said:
Philon's handle is tighter than I remember, and it gives me more confidence he can play PG at some point. His ast/to ratio is the best of any of the Freshman pgs and although he isn't the most creative passer, he's still very good and potentially held back a little by playing with who he did.

His defense will be good enough to keep him on the floor and offensively he has a floater and can catch and shoot well enough to allow him time on the floor to expand his game.

He's 100% the player type that I like, so he'll be much higher on my board than he might deserve, but I think he's a good enough bet to improve over time that I'm comfortable with it.
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The thing that keeps me from getting super hyped about Philon isn't his offense, it's actually his defense. He just doesn't have the length or bulk for me to project him as a top level defender in the NBA.

- He's probably the best pickpocket in the draft and has takeaways from a lot of the best guards in this draft class (Harper, Kas, Tre, Pettiford, Fears, Clayton, Chaz)
- But sometimes as he gambles for picks he gets beat off the dribble.
- He works extremely hard on/off ball and is good at anticipating where to be on defense.
- He isn't strong enough to adsorb contact and so he can't get his chest in to guys as they drive and gets thrown way off track by hard picks (although he is pretty good in general at anticipating picks and avoiding them).
- He's not afraid to mix it up inside, but he's not really strong enough/long enough to be effective at switches on to bigs.

I think he'll be a very good defender once he adds some bulk/strength, but I'm guessing it's going to be a few years until he gets to that level.
 
RyGuy said:
How much should roster construction fit be considered with this pick? For example I would love if the Jazz drafted Tre Johnson. But would VJ Edgecombe be a better roster fit if you still believe in the Jazz's last two lottery picks? Imagine having VJ and Hendricks out on the perimeter defensively with Kessler backing them up? I know Cody Williams is very bad last year no argument here, but what if he comes into camp more muscular, better body, improves on shooting and handle?

If the Jazz do trade Lauri which I believe they should, and Cody and Taylor both come back improved now you have the makings of a potentially very good defensive lineup if you add VJ Edgecombe.

One thing the Jazz have shown with their top lottery picks is they like length, athleticism, and potential two way ability. Prior to playing in the NBA both Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams were thought to have that potential. Now it may never materialize for one or both of them but if your still a believer in both then adding a guy like VJ is quite tempting. Regardless I think the Jazz are in a fine spot and will get a very good player no matter if it'd Tre, VJ or Ace. The team is signaling they are going to tank again next year so let's just continue to add talent and build this roster up. I'm just wondering with the pieces we currently have, who would be the best fit. They are all extremely talented players
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We also need to be able to score the ball. With VJ/Hendricks/Kessler there isn’t a ton of offensive creation at all.
 
Elizah Huge said:
We also need to be able to score the ball. With VJ/Hendricks/Kessler there isn’t a ton of offensive creation at all.
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Yeah it's definitely not an ideal offensive lineup. But you would still have Isaiah Collier setting the table. It's not like these guys would just stand there like a wall. You move, set screens, drive to the hoop, pass. I do get your overall point but let's not act like they would never put the ball in the hoop. And just for the record I would prefer Tre Johnson. But it is nice to think of the defensive potential while hoping the offense isn't garbage
 
I don’t think you should care about construction when you’re about to tank and barely have anyone who is a building block. You don’t even know if some of the guys you’re constructing around are going to be in the league in 5 years. I think the bigger thing is recognizing that you’re in a tanking situation and thinking about how that will effect certain players’ development.
 
KqWIN said:
I don’t think you should care about construction when you’re about to tank and barely have anyone who is a building block. You don’t even know if some of the guys you’re constructing around are going to be in the league in 5 years. I think the bigger thing is recognizing that you’re in a tanking situation and thinking about how that will effect certain players’ development.
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I think Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik care. If both Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams flame out there jobs may be on the line. So to them they absolutely may be considering roster fit/construction with this pick. There's only so long they can kick the can down the road with nothing to show for it
 
RyGuy said:
I think Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik care. If both Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams flame out there jobs may be on the line. So to them they absolutely may be considering roster fit/construction with this pick. There's only so long they can kick the can down the road with nothing to show for it
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I don’t see how that’s all related to roster construction. If the young guards on this team flame out, that is also very bad. Like why are Cody and Hendricks part of “roster construction” when they have way less proven than other young players? You’re trying to put together a puzzle that you don’t have any pieces for yet.

Even if we were going to say roster construction is very important, what guys are we even considering to be a part of that? I’d agree that we need more scoring, but that’s not because Hendricks is someone who we should be changing our pick for, it’s because Key is also not good enough. None of these guys except for Kessler are.

Whoever we draft, if the reasoning is the fit with Taylor Hendricks I am going to lose my mind. Only player good enough to influence our decision is Kessler, and all that means is we’re not a Maluach or CMB team which is fine.
 
Cody should be assumed to have already flamed out. He was the worst offensive player in the NBA last year as well as being one of the worst rebounders and help defenders in the NBA. Taylor Hendricks flaming out (if it happens) can just be blamed on injury.

Even if Hendricks turned out, it's not clear he's long for the Jazz either. Both Hendricks and Filipowski are locked to the PF slot and can't play other positions effectively.
 
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