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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

KqWIN said:
Does it move the needle at all the Kas self created more of his offense and was more efficient than all of those players? Or is it just about the actual jump shot not falling? This is especially true in the half court.

I think his rim attack is one of the more polarizing skills in the draft. Well, I actually don’t think it’s polarizing I just don’t think people believe in it. I get why, but I also believe in that part of his game a lot. Besides Harper, he’s the beet ball handler in the draft at beating “drop” coverage. Finishes extremely well, draws fouls extremely well, and is one of the best passers in that situation as well.
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I'm not really used to arguing against Kas, lol, but yeah I just got to the point today while going through film that I am less confident than before that he will be a good shooter. I hope he is, and I think there is plenty of reason to believe, but if he isn't a a great shooter, I'm not sure how you can justify him top 5.
 
Losing Interest said:
No - I think too many people go with POTENTIAL as opposed to a more proven player (Junior / Senior draft picks). I think Kam Jones is getting some of the same push back. Remember Desmond Bane (Should have been a Jazz man).
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Neither Bryant or Coward are more proven. Bryant barely played and Coward almost exclusively played against terrible competition.

Coward has an actual real jump shot though, so having him higher makes sense, but Bryant is younger and I'm more confident will be a difference making defender which is why I have him slightly ahead of Coward.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I'm not really used to arguing against Kas, lol, but yeah I just got to the point today while going through film that I am less confident than before that he will be a good shooter. I hope he is, and I think there is plenty of reason to believe, but if he isn't a a great shooter, I'm not sure how you can justify him top 5.
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I guess it just comes down to preference, I don't disagree too much with what you've just said about him. The shot does have to fall more, but I have reasonable confidence that the percentages will come up in the pros. He might not be an elite shooter, but I still see his shooting as an overall plus where he'll be decent at the tough shots (step backs/OTD/unassisted etc) but also be good at hitting catch and shoot shots which he barely got in college. But the shotmaking edge definitely goes to Tre and Ace. The bucket getter just isn't my type of prospect or player.

I value the ability to attack the basket more, it's the most premium skill IMO. Rim and free throw attempts are still much more efficient than three pointers, and playing a rim attacking style allows you to be a better playmaker. I see these traits as more difficult to develop than shooting which is why I think Kas has the most potential to be an offensive hub. I also like his outcomes if he's not a full blown lead ball handler. He has great motor + IQ which lends itself well to a scaled down role.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Neither Bryant or Coward are more proven. Bryant barely played and Coward almost exclusively played against terrible competition.

Coward has an actual real jump shot though, so having him higher makes sense, but Bryant is younger and I'm more confident will be a difference making defender which is why I have him slightly ahead of Coward.
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Part of the Bryant case is based on HS from what I gather. Similar to Drake Powell. Its that they both really played in a box and have more to show. I buy it somewhat. I would bet that Bryant/Coward/Fleming are all gone by like 16.
 
Quotes from recent DX article. Givony does a mock based on fit, Woo does a mock based on value:

2.​

Givony's pick that fills the biggest need:
Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke, Freshman | TS%: 64.8

Surrounding Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox with high-feel, dynamic perimeter shooters is a major priority for the front office this offseason, and no player in this draft fits that bit better than Knueppel. He's the draft's best shooter, capable of shooting off movement coming off screens, but also is a solid defender and playmaker who plays a selfless, highly competitive style.

He was happy to play second fiddle to Flagg, his teammate and rising superstar this season, making him an ideal fit to pair with a future MVP contender such as Wembanyama.
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3.​

Givony's pick that fills the biggest need:
Airious "Ace" Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers, Freshman | TS%: 54.0

Bailey looks as if he'd be a seamless fit for the 76ers' roster, able to slide between the shooting guard and power forward positions in a variety of lineup configurations alongside the likes of Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, Quentin Grimes, Paul George and Kelly Oubre Jr.

The Sixers need a star-level wing to emerge and eventually surpass George and his gaudy contract, which looks increasingly unlikely to age well over the next three years. Bailey's size, shotmaking prowess and intensity give him significant upside to grow into at 18 years old.

Woo's pick that gets the best value:
VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor, Freshman | TS%: 56.1

Edgecombe has made a strong case as the third-best prospect in this draft: Teams love his combination of overall athleticism and downhill slashing ability and see major upside as he grows more comfortable making plays with the ball in his hands. I'd also make the argument that he offers the best mix of upside and floor at this spot in the draft. His proponents around the league see star potential.

While Edgecombe might not be the cleanest fit on paper considering Philadelphia's backcourt situation, there's no one player expected to be available at No. 3 who significantly alters the Sixers' outlook for next season. I view him as the best bet here through a long-term lens.
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4.​


Woo's pick that gets the best value: Knueppel

Knueppel has a real chance of hearing his name called among the top five on draft night, with teams considering his immediate on-court utility and the long-term room to flesh out his offensive game. Knueppel's excellent perimeter shooting and measured style as a playmaker would be a strong addition for the Hornets, with his presence likely helpful to take pressure off of Ball and Brandon Miller.

While there's a case for Bailey's upside being difficult to pass up here, Knueppel arguably has a better chance to reach his full potential with the Hornets and represents the value play if both are on the board. This is a good illustration of how the variable of team fit can -- and should -- factor into the matter of situational value.
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5.​

Givony's pick that fills the biggest need: Edgecombe

With Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson both entering the final years of their contracts, there's a need for the Jazz at the shooting guard position, and possibly at point guard depending on how new lead decision-maker Austin Ainge feels about Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier in the long term.

Enter Edgecombe, the most explosive guard prospect in this draft, who possesses the type of star upside the Jazz currently lack in their backcourt. Edgecombe showed serious flashes of potential as a lead ball handler at last summer's FIBA Olympic qualifying tournament with the Bahamas national team, and he has long viewed the point guard position as his natural landing spot long term.

Woo's pick that gets the best value: Bailey

Here's where Bailey becomes a very strong value play: Utah would still get to snag a player with excellent upside despite its pick falling to No. 5 on lottery night. Bailey's shotmaking prowess is unlike that of any other player in the class, giving him significant room to grow into a quality scorer.

The drawback is that Bailey is raw enough in other areas that selecting him and getting the most out of him is going to require the element of time, something not every team can afford. Although the Jazz might be losing patience with their current tank, they still need to make this pick with a long-term lens in mind. Bailey is the type of talent who can help change their circumstances if things click for him -- a dive worth taking at No. 5.
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7.
Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma, Freshman | TS%: 57.0

When swinging for upside early in the draft, Fears is the type of talent I'd have a hard time letting fall too far. His playmaking instincts and ability to get downhill can put major pressure on defenses, and he's so early in his development that there's time and room for his jump shot to come around.

While Fears is unlikely to be an immediate high-impact addition in a winning context, his skill set is worth investing in early, particularly for a team such as New Orleans that could use a long-term starting point guard.

8.
Woo's pick that gets the best value: Johnson

Johnson's knack for bucket-getting makes him well worth a swing in the top 10. While I have some reservations about his style of play, if a team can get Johnson to buy in and share the ball, his shooting ability could pay real dividends.

The Nets have enough shots to go around next season that this situation makes sense, and this is where I'd target Johnson, after the other top-scoring wing prospects are off the board.
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21.​

Givony's pick that fills the biggest need:
Nique Clifford, SG, Colorado State, Super Senior | TS%: 60.9

It appears the Jazz will be trying a different strategy after finishing with the league's worst record (17-65), which resulted in netting only the No. 5 pick. "It's go time for us," owner Ryan Smith told ESPN, after adding a new president of basketball operations in Austin Ainge. Adding more teenagers to the roster might not make a great deal of sense in that regard, with the Jazz sporting the second-youngest roster in the NBA (average age of 24.8).

A 23-year-old like Clifford could make sense as a plug-and-play wing with an excellent feel for the game and strong defensive versatility who converted 38% of his 3-pointers for the Rams last season.

Woo's pick that gets the best value: Wolf

The Jazz might not be overly beholden to any player they have on their current roster, with Ainge already on record saying the team plans to compete next season.

That makes Wolf a pretty interesting play at this spot, as a player who could potentially plug in as a rookie and offer interesting mismatch and lineup possibilities. Landing him outside the top 20 would be a worthwhile bet in this situation.
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stitches said:
Am I crazy for liking Coward better than Bryant?
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not at all. Bryant is very much an "in theory" prospect. he's big, he's athletic, he has solid stroke, but he averaged 6 and 4 on 5 FGA per game. he shot 5 times a game. he looks the part, but who knows if he can actually produce at a level beyond high school.
 
KqWIN said:
I guess it just comes down to preference, I don't disagree too much with what you've just said about him. The shot does have to fall more, but I have reasonable confidence that the percentages will come up in the pros. He might not be an elite shooter, but I still see his shooting as an overall plus where he'll be decent at the tough shots (step backs/OTD/unassisted etc) but also be good at hitting catch and shoot shots which he barely got in college. But the shotmaking edge definitely goes to Tre and Ace. The bucket getter just isn't my type of prospect or player.

I value the ability to attack the basket more, it's the most premium skill IMO. Rim and free throw attempts are still much more efficient than three pointers, and playing a rim attacking style allows you to be a better playmaker. I see these traits as more difficult to develop than shooting which is why I think Kas has the most potential to be an offensive hub. I also like his outcomes if he's not a full blown lead ball handler. He has great motor + IQ which lends itself well to a scaled down role.
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I'm fully onboard with all of this, as you know I'm super high on Kas.

FWIW, the only reason I have Ace in the tier ahead of Kas is because of his potential as a good defender. Defense is something I constantly talk about and value, and it has felt a little off to be so high on Kas when I don't think he has a chance to be anything more than an ok defender.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I'm fully onboard with all of this, as you know I'm super high on Kas.

FWIW, the only reason I have Ace in the tier ahead of Kas is because of his potential as a good defender. Defense is something I constantly talk about and value, and it has felt a little off to be so high on Kas when I don't think he has a chance to be anything more than an ok defender.
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Ace is difficult to place, it's very team dependent for me. I would take him at 3 if I was PHI but I don't love him for us. I think our tanking situation will have him lean into his bad habits. I don't even necessarily see him as a boom/bust prospect like others do. He has so many areas that he has the most to improve on but also has the most areas where improvement is realistic. He probably improves some areas, but not all. Think if he ends up here his career will be like Wiggins where he becomes a better/winning player with his second team.

Kon deserves a place in this convo too. Seems like a real possibility at #5 or higher.
 
Kon and Fears are the next two on my rewatch list. I think they are in the same tier as Kas and so Kas vs Kon and Kas vs Fears should be discussed more in my opinion.
 
FWIW, this is exactly a second watch of these prospects, but more like a 3rd watch. I might end up regretting getting all the way to a 3rd watch and find that I'm finding things that aren't really there or ignoring things that I liked in the first place.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
FWIW, this is exactly a second watch of these prospects, but more like a 3rd watch. I might end up regretting getting all the way to a 3rd watch and find that I'm finding things that aren't really there or ignoring things that I liked in the first place.
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To be more clear:

First watch - Live games as they happened and Cashiggy videos as they became available
Second Watch - Scouting videos and Hardwood Hoops videos
Third Watch - All the Cashiggy videos over again specifically looking for the strengths weaknesses mentioned on here and in scouting videos
 
I think I'm at that point where I'm evaluating if trading up to #3 for VJ is worth it. I like #21 a lot this draft, but VJ has separated himself from Tre/Ace/Kon for me.
 
If anyone is interested (might make a thread for this) I think it would be cool to make a list of full games that we could all watch and share opinions of. Would answer the question, "do you even watch the games!). I am for sure going to watch both Texas vs Oklahoma games. Then probably watch a Kon game.
 
For now I will just post thoughts here until I get a thread going. Watch along if you'd like.

Texas @ Oklahoma - Jan 15, 2025

1H

Tre
- Thought this was a really good half for him.
- Texas doubled/trapped him a lot and he made the right reads and passed out of it well each time
- Oklahoma was faceguarding him a lot, think this actually hurt Oklahoma
- A couple drives, but no physical attacks to the basket
- Defense was good. Made some plays to create turnovers. 1 or 2 lapses but w/e.
- Was challenged a couple times by bad players, he did fine
- Defense is so easy to play at NCAA level
- Thought he had a great first half scoring wise, but you look down and he's 10 points on 4/10 shooting. All his shots are "tough".

Fears
- Great energy to start the game
- Electric ball handling, has it on a string
- Complex finishing package....they win at the start, did not go in later on.
- Foul merchant
- Almost nothing to talk about defense wise. Nothing happens when you're guarding a bad player
- Played more off the ball than you'd expect, nothing came of it
- Disappeared late in the half after a good start
 
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