Good Article - "NBA Free Agency 2016: Utah Jazz cap situation and future-proofing"

[fishonjazz]

DL f'd up by not going after a significant FA two years ago. A 4 yr deal could have been offered and it would be expiring at precisely the time the Jazz might need cap room for Gobert, Exum and then Hood.
Last year the new cap was already built in to most of the contracts that were signed.
And this cake baking is ********. Young guys can still develop while a team is winning. Look at players like Draymond, Kawhi, etc. They're likely BETTER because they had to EARN their playing time. It wasn't given to them because their benches were filled with guys who should be in a rec league.

This is an interesting post.
kawhi leonard rookie year minutes per game: 24. sophmore year was over 30 and every year after.
Draymond green (2nd round pick. 35 overall. Of course he wouldn't play much right off the bat) rookie year minutes per game: 13. Sophmore was 21 and then over 30 the next two years.
Klay thompson rookie year was 24 minutes per game. Then 35 his sophmore year.

Now some jazz players.
Derrick favors (#3 pick) 20 minutes per game with the jazz as a rookie. Sophmore year was 21 minutes. Then 23 minutes. then 30.
Alec burks got 15 minutes per game his rookie year. Sophmore year he got 17. then 28.
Gordon hayward got 16 minutes per game his rookie year. Then 30 minutes per game his sophmore year. so he got to 30 minutes per game quicker than anyone on the jazz. and he is considered our best player. maybe giving them the minutes as early as possible is better. maybe not.
Dante exum got 22 minutes per game his rookie year.
Trey lyles got 17 minutes per game his rookie year.
rodney hood got 21 minutes per game his rookie year. then 32 his sophmore year. (burks was hurt both years or those numbers wouldn't be as high.)

I think that a lot of teams give their lottery picks good minutes early on. Usually its a good idea to try to play lottery picks and try to develop them. I wish lyle would have been handed even more minutes last season.

 

[Stifle Tower]

I

In what way is Gordon unproductive? Cause he hasn't been voted to an All-Star game? His numbers are pretty awesome. Or are we talking about wins? Cause I mean Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are definitely stars and look at their teams win totals.. The amount of Jazz fans hating on Hayward is pretty fascinating to me. I'm always trying to figure it out. My theory is a majority of fans only see Jazz games and don't see the quality of SF's on other teams.

Never said he was unproductive. He's a very good player. But do you pay a very good player $30m and then have to let someone like Favors, Gobert, or Exum or Hood go because you'd be over the tax? It's production per dollar. And a guy who scores < 20 pts, is just average from 3PT range and can't create his own shot and carry a team when needed is NOT worth superstar money.
And there's the risk factor. Jazz don't even know IF he'd stay. Trade him for very good assets and sign a FA at half the price who could score 16-18 per.

 

[MDAV28]

Umm, Burke. All of the starters...and I don't think Exum or Hood have shown enough yet, should have had competition pushing them. DL has taken that away by signing scrubs (even with a TON of cap space). These guys have been bottle fed. They're Charmin soft. Hell, maybe if there was some competition, they'd spend some extra time practicing their damn FT's!

Forgot about Burke you are right. Favors didn't even become a full-time starter until is 4th season. Alec averaged like 16 mpg his first 2 seasons. Hayward's rookie season he didn't play much. It wasn't until really year 4 for him as well that he was given the reigns. Rudy Gobert absolutely earned his playing time, I don't see how you could say he didn't.

This is a ridiculous take and definitely not the problem.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

True.
I think the jazz thought it would be risky to give wes matthews, demarre carroll, Danny green 15 million to possibly just wait for that 10 game injury to come along.

And I think that they might have figured the ugrade from joe ingles to a jared dudley type for the predictable 10 game type injury wouldn't make enough of a difference to really matter.

Say the jazz have the predictable # of injuries like you said. Does jared dudley instead of joe ingles win us many more games if any at all? Especially since he might take time to get used to his new teammates and role? Maybe.

Jared Dudley is one of the top RPM guys and has an insane ts%... Two things that lead to wins. He's an A+ locker room guy and mentor... Sees it as part of the reason he will stay in the league. I think he adds 3-5 wins last year which is a lot but we lost a ton of close games and depth would have changed things at key points in the season. 3-5 wins obviously puts us in the playoffs and changes our view of the season.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Why do you think the jazz did nothing? They are pros right?

You think the plan was to suck as much as possible, make the fans mad, look as stupid as they can, and try their hardest to miss the playoffs?
Doesn't seem like a good plan. Maybe they actually thought they had a good reason to not be active in free agency and injuries screwed that reason up.

I think they cut corners to save money. We operated at the salary floor last year. I think unless it was a clear home run DL kept the purse strings tied.

 

[fishonjazz]

Umm, Burke. All of the starters...and I don't think Exum or Hood have shown enough yet, should have had competition pushing them. DL has taken that away by signing scrubs (even with a TON of cap space). These guys have been bottle fed. They're Charmin soft. Hell, maybe if there was some competition, they'd spend some extra time practicing their damn FT's!

Its called a rebuild bro.
Karl anthony towns and wiggins are being bottle fed oh no! They are rebuilding which typically means that you try to get lottery picks and then get those lottery picks as much playing time as possible. People act like the jazz have been rebuilding forever. The rebuild started when millsap and jefferson left. How many seasons have we had without those two? 3 seasons? (im guessing) The rebuild was slowed a bit this season by injuries. Still on track though.
Jazz make the playoffs next year with one of the youngest teams in the league.
rebuilds are rough on fans. Almost always (there are a few exceptions)

 

[fishonjazz]

I think they cut corners to save money. We operated at the salary floor last year. I think unless it was a clear home run DL kept the purse strings tied.

Thanks for the answer.
So you think they will be at the salary floor in 3 or 4 years? Will they never spend or do you think that they want to spend big money when the team is closer to being contenders and their young guys are a little more developed and we are closer to the finish of the rebuild?

I hope they plan on spending eventually and I hope that they didn't avoid spending last summer 100% due to financial reasons. Hopefully some of the reason was exactly what myself and others have said. (develop our own guys and give them lots of uncontested minutes and see how good they can be)

 

[fishonjazz]

Jared Dudley is one of the top RPM guys and has an insane ts%... Two things that lead to wins. He's an A+ locker room guy and mentor... Sees it as part of the reason he will stay in the league. I think he adds 3-5 wins last year which is a lot but we lost a ton of close games and depth would have changed things at key points in the season. 3-5 wins obviously puts us in the playoffs and changes our view of the season.

I think that is a lot of value. Maybe they should have tried to get him. Maybe they even did try to. Maybe they didn't predict correctly just how good he would be. Maybe with the jazz he doesn't do as good.

You make a good point. Looking back and having the stats you just provided, i wish they would have got jared dudley last summer.

 

[fishonjazz]

Jared Dudley is one of the top RPM guys and has an insane ts%... Two things that lead to wins. He's an A+ locker room guy and mentor... Sees it as part of the reason he will stay in the league. I think he adds 3-5 wins last year which is a lot but we lost a ton of close games and depth would have changed things at key points in the season. 3-5 wins obviously puts us in the playoffs and changes our view of the season.

Repped btw

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Thanks for the answer.
So you think they will be at the salary floor in 3 or 4 years? Will they never spend or do you think that they want to spend big money when the team is closer to being contenders and their young guys are a little more developed and we are closer to the finish of the rebuild?

I hope they plan on spending eventually and I hope that they didn't avoid spending last summer 100% due to financial reasons. Hopefully some of the reason was exactly what myself and others have said. (develop our own guys and give them lots of uncontested minutes and see how good they can be)

With the cap rising I think we will live at or near the floor... Revenue goes up but I'm not smart enough to figure out if revenue is proportionate for a small market team.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think that is a lot of value. Maybe they should have tried to get him. Maybe they even did try to. Maybe they didn't predict correctly just how good he would be. Maybe with the jazz he doesn't do as good.

You make a good point. Looking back and having the stats you just provided, i wish they would have got jared dudley last summer.

That one is cherry picking a bit but I have to believe Milwaukee would have preferred to trade him to us in a salty dump and not a team they were competing with for a playoff spot.

Who knows if it would have worked out but I know we had two rotation players that were awful to start the season and he could have taken minutes from either or both. I would like to get him this year but it'd have been nice to get an audition.

He was amongst the guys I wanted to go get.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Repped btw

Thank you... I appreciate the way you debate... Always fair.

 

[fishonjazz]

With the cap rising I think we will live at or near the floor...

Really?
I think hayward makes 25 million per year (for the jazz) three years from now. I figure favors will be around 18 million. Rudy around 18 million as well. Burks will be at 11 million still. Hood is probably at around 15 million. If exum even becomes half as good as we hope he will be around 15 million. Lyles looks like he could be kind of like ryan anderson and i figure he will be at least 10 million.

If you add that up (i actually think lyles will be more than 10 million but i went with 10 anyway) thats 112 million for 7 guys. Lets just say i was a few million too high on exum, favors, and rudy. So now we minus 6 million and we are at 106 million for 7 guys. That leaves another 7 guys to pay to fill out the roster. Lets say they are all super cheap joe ingles types. that would still be like 3 million a piece (probably to low really) so now we are at 127 million if we are being conservative.

What will the salary floor be in 3 years? idk but i was being quite conservative with those numbers and i still think we will be a decent amount over the floor.

I guess the cap might keep going up and that salary would be low but I also don't think we will have 7 players at a joe ingles type super low salary. Hell just our first rounders alone will make more than 3 million.

 

[fishonjazz]

Thank you... I appreciate the way you debate... Always fair.

Thanks
You too man.

 

[fishonjazz]

That one is cherry picking a bit but I have to believe Milwaukee would have preferred to trade him to us in a salty dump and not a team they were competing with for a playoff spot.

Who knows if it would have worked out but I know we had two rotation players that were awful to start the season and he could have taken minutes from either or both. I would like to get him this year but it'd have been nice to get an audition.

He was amongst the guys I wanted to go get.

Ya, he looks to be one of the ones that got away.

Im hearing a lot about pj tucker being the jared dudley of this off season. Hopefully we try to get him. Wonder how much he would cost.

 

[RandyForRubio]

Why do you think the jazz did nothing? They are pros right?

You think the plan was to suck as much as possible, make the fans mad, look as stupid as they can, and try their hardest to miss the playoffs?
Doesn't seem like a good plan. Maybe they actually thought they had a good reason to not be active in free agency and injuries screwed that reason up.

I think they made a mistake. And sure they're pros, but so is every executive for every other team. That doesn't mean ****. They can be pro's and still make a mistake. You're making this an "us against them" thing. It's not. It's just saying they're not perfect and they screwed up.

 

[NAOS]

Ya I wonder if the jazz could have predicted that Burks would miss 50+ games if they would have signed a wing.

You're missing the point.

I think he was saying that the minutes chris Johnson and joe ingles got could have went to someone else if we had signed someone else.

I was agreeing. If the jazz knew that chris johnson and joe ingles would be getting minutes then they probably would have tried to get a better player to use those minutes.
I think that the jazz thought that cj and ingles would never set foot on the basketball court.

Yup, missed the point. Again.

 

[NAOS]

Myself and others have provided some possible reasons why the jazz didn't spend in free agency.

Many people have complained about that fact.

What reasons do the people think the jazz were not active in free agency? They just have the dumbest and cheapest coaches, gm, and management in the league?

Man I'm glad I don't think that. I think they had a good reason.

... goin' with the blind-faith angle.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Really?
I think hayward makes 25 million per year (for the jazz) three years from now. I figure favors will be around 18 million. Rudy around 18 million as well. Burks will be at 11 million still. Hood is probably at around 15 million. If exum even becomes half as good as we hope he will be around 15 million. Lyles looks like he could be kind of like ryan anderson and i figure he will be at least 10 million.

If you add that up (i actually think lyles will be more than 10 million but i went with 10 anyway) thats 112 million for 7 guys. Lets just say i was a few million too high on exum, favors, and rudy. So now we minus 6 million and we are at 106 million for 7 guys. That leaves another 7 guys to pay to fill out the roster. Lets say they are all super cheap joe ingles types. that would still be like 3 million a piece (probably to low really) so now we are at 127 million if we are being conservative.

What will the salary floor be in 3 years? idk but i was being quite conservative with those numbers and i still think we will be a decent amount over the floor.

I guess the cap might keep going up and that salary would be low but I also don't think we will have 7 players at a joe ingles type super low salary. Hell just our first rounders alone will make more than 3 million.

The cap likely settles around 105-110... floor would be 90% of that. I think we will be at or near the floor unless the team has a chance to be great... kind of like the DWill era great.... not Malone Stockton great. I think some of the guys will be traded and they will be replaced with young cheap guys. I think we trade guys though... don't think they walk for nothing.

I may be wrong here and maybe they were saving a bit for a rainy day this season. It seems like the opposite of how we should do it though... spend last offseason and sit this one out. It will be bananas... Jazzfanz may melt when they see the type of deals handed out.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ya, he looks to be one of the ones that got away.

Im hearing a lot about pj tucker being the jared dudley of this off season. Hopefully we try to get him. Wonder how much he would cost.

Tucker has a team option around $5M... could probably be had in trade for a second. I like him.. I like solid bench guys that can do a few things well and play a couple different positions.