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Grayson Allen

Sandman822 said:
I was actually curious about this so I went to do some stat checking. I don't know of a way to do this automatically unfortunately so I just went and did this manually from his game log.

He's shooting 37.2% from the field in games where he gets over 10 minutes on the season, and 34.0% from deep. I'm not invested enough in Allen to go do all of his counting stats or FT% but there seems to be some truth to Allen performing better when he gets more minutes, but 37.2/34 shooting splits from the field/3pt line is still bad for a 4 year pro that you pick hoping to be NBA ready but at least it's not a total disaster like his overall season %s are.
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those shooting splits aren't bad/worrisome to me (regardless of him being a 4-yr college player, he's still a rookie at the end of the day trying to adjust both on and off the floor) since it's still such a small sample over such few games, but it still is a basis for proving my point and more encouraging than anything. those %'s are similar numbers that guys like shamet and huerter were doing early in the season when they were struggling but getting alot more playing time than allen to adjust to the pro game. with more game time, they've both significantly improved, and i would expect that same trajectory for allen given similar playing time/opportunity. again, go look at his preseason and g-league stats (yes, i know it's not fully against nba competition but it's a better sample size) where he was playing 15-30 min a game. those numbers are great (especially on a very high volume of 3's) and more realistic/close to what i would expect for him w/ legit playing time. can't even begin to make even any preliminary judgments on him until he's playing a consistent 15-20 min a game over at least 30-40+ games. donovan looked like crap in the first 20-25% of last season (in about a similar amount of games that allen has played so far, but he got a lot more PT than allen is getting) and got so much better thereafter with PT/learning from mistakes.
 
Has Allen spent much time in the g league? Curious what his numbers are there. He gives me a Morris Almond vibe for some reason.
 
Grayson's form looks like a shooter's form, like Donovan's. When he misses, it is generally an in-and-out- rather than clanging off the front or back of the rim like we get from Ricky or Exum. He gets his shot off in a hurry unlike past busts like Kirk Snyder and Morris Almond (and Jimmer, for that matter.) Allen's shooting will be fine. He will need MUCH better handles to play at his size, and be able to play passable defense. I suspect that Allen can learn all of the "old man tricks" that Jingles uses to equalize the athleticism of the players he is guarding due to his BBIQ. But that ball handling needs definite improvement before he gets meaningful minutes in important stretches of games.
 
framer said:
Grayson's form looks like a shooter's form, like Donovan's. When he misses, it is generally an in-and-out- rather than clanging off the front or back of the rim like we get from Ricky or Exum. He gets his shot off in a hurry unlike past busts like Kirk Snyder and Morris Almond (and Jimmer, for that matter.) Allen's shooting will be fine. He will need MUCH better handles to play at his size, and be able to play passable defense. I suspect that Allen can learn all of the "old man tricks" that Jingles uses to equalize the athleticism of the players he is guarding due to his BBIQ. But that ball handling needs definite improvement before he gets meaningful minutes in important stretches of games.
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He just hasn't looked comfortable out there. Percentages in games you are playing just like 5-7 minutes per game will be bad... so anyone judging Allen really has to use eye test.

Shot looks pure and he's good attacking closeouts and getting past the first level of defense... hasn't figured out what to do at that point and defaults to low percentage runners/floaters.

His defense has gotten better and he's made some cool athletic plays on defense... still lots of work to do there.

The old man tricks and learning to change gears will help. Give him a year in our program to improve. We can't really give him the time he needs to do a ton of development unfortunately.

For those arguing he should be ready-made as an older player... not many guys come in and are good on good teams. Brogdon was good (was on a .500 team in the East) but guys like Joe Harris took a couple years. I'll judge him when he hits like 1000 nba minutes. Tough to break into a rotation of a fairly established playoff team in the west.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
He just hasn't looked comfortable out there. Percentages in games you are playing just like 5-7 minutes per game will be bad... so anyone judging Allen really has to use eye test.

Shot looks pure and he's good attacking closeouts and getting past the first level of defense... hasn't figured out what to do at that point and defaults to low percentage runners/floaters.

His defense has gotten better and he's made some cool athletic plays on defense... still lots of work to do there.

The old man tricks and learning to change gears will help. Give him a year in our program to improve. We can't really give him the time he needs to do a ton of development unfortunately.

For those arguing he should be ready-made as an older player... not many guys come in and are good on good teams. Brogdon was good (was on a .500 team in the East) but guys like Joe Harris took a couple years. I'll judge him when he hits like 1000 nba minutes. Tough to break into a rotation of a fairly established playoff team in the west.
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he needs to hit up wade and ginobili (2 players he idolizes and definitely plays like alot of the time) this offseason and watch more of their tape, especially with ballhandling and becoming more shifty. as you said, he routinely gets by his defender (sometimes surprisingly easily; his first step/long strides are very underrated) and into the paint usually without even needing a screen. his decision making when creating for himself once he has achieved that penetration is what needs game reps to get better. he's excellent at kicking out to the open man for 3 and also makes some nice lobs to the bigs. for his own personal offense, you're right in that he settles for difficult short midrange jumpers or floaters. he's so athletic and needs to attack the rim more and either finish there or get fouled/get to the line like he used to as a sophomore at duke. all the tools are there for him to be an excellent combo guard, he just needs more polish as a ballhandler and gametime reps.
 
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jazzETX said:
he needs to hit up wade and ginobili (2 players he idolizes and definitely plays like alot of the time) this offseason and watch more of their tape, especially with ballhandling and becoming more shifty. as you said, he routinely gets by his defender (sometimes surprisingly easily; his first step/long strides are very underrated) and into the paint usually without even needing a screen. his decision making when creating for himself once he has achieved that penetration is what needs game reps to get better. he's excellent at kicking out to the open man for 3 and also makes some nice lobs to the bigs. for his own personal offense, you're right in that he settles for difficult short midrange jumpers or floaters. he's so athletic and needs to attack the rim more and either finish there or get fouled/get to the line like he used to as a sophomore at duke. all the tools are there for him to be an excellent combo guard, he just needs more polish as a ballhandler and gametime reps.
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He just needs to work with our guys... if he learns to shift down like Ingles (hood did this too) and hold the guy from behind a little longer he could do some stuff.

I'm not like crazy bullish on him, but I like him more now than the night of the draft... the numbers are bad, but you just have to watch him. He reminds me of Hayward his first year... just kinda not sure what to do and playing with very little confidence. Would have been great if he was ready for rotation minutes out of the gate, but it's just so rare. It isn't like Bradley where he really has very little path to playing time. We just need to chill a bit with him.
 
I doubt the Jazz are close to giving up on him. Look at a player like Joe Harris, had a 5.6 PER and 3.4 PER his first two years, considered awful for a 4 year college player. He started turning it on his 4th and 5th year though, and now shoots a blistering 47% from 3 in 8 attempts a game. The Jazz liked Allen's quick release and ability to shoot spotting up as well as off the dribble (a rare commodity). I expect them to be very patient with him.
 
jazzETX said:
those shooting splits aren't bad/worrisome to me (regardless of him being a 4-yr college player, he's still a rookie at the end of the day trying to adjust both on and off the floor) since it's still such a small sample over such few games, but it still is a basis for proving my point and more encouraging than anything. those %'s are similar numbers that guys like shamet and huerter were doing early in the season when they were struggling but getting alot more playing time than allen to adjust to the pro game. with more game time, they've both significantly improved, and i would expect that same trajectory for allen given similar playing time/opportunity. again, go look at his preseason and g-league stats (yes, i know it's not fully against nba competition but it's a better sample size) where he was playing 15-30 min a game. those numbers are great (especially on a very high volume of 3's) and more realistic/close to what i would expect for him w/ legit playing time. can't even begin to make even any preliminary judgments on him until he's playing a consistent 15-20 min a game over at least 30-40+ games. donovan looked like crap in the first 20-25% of last season (in about a similar amount of games that allen has played so far, but he got a lot more PT than allen is getting) and got so much better thereafter with PT/learning from mistakes.
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Shamet had one bad month at the start of season in October where he had bad %s but since November he hasn't had a month where he shot below 40% from the field, and his 3pt% has consistently been above 37% and often in the 40% range for entire months. Allen is almost the reverse where he looked great in October but since then has been hot trash efficiency wise. Hueter has also been better overall efficiency wise on a month to month basis, albiet more inconsistent than Shamet, and he's also only 20 years old + has better size than Allen.

Donovan never looked that bad from an eye test or from a statistical standpoint in his rookie season last year. His worst month was December where he shot 38% from the field and 29% from deep, and iirc that was the first month where he started to get consistent play time. In the months prior to that he is far superior to Allen in almost every way despite getting inconsistent minutes too, and you could see since the Summer League that Mitchell had something special about him from a pure eye test point only that would make him a great player in the league if it translated to regular NBA games.

Like I said earlier I think Allen could still develop into a solid rotational player which for a late 1st is a fine enough return on the pick. But he's nowhere near the level of Shamet or Huerter as a rookie right now and unless he develops some PG skills or becomes an elite 3pt threat like a Redick or even where Shamet looks to be going he hasn't shown anything to suggest that he's going to be anything more than a rotational bench piece so far. I'm struggling to think of a 4 year college pro who shot as poorly as Allen has in their rookie season developing into a starting caliber NBA player. Can think of a number of 1-and-done guys but not 4 year guys.
 
Jazz4ever said:
I doubt the Jazz are close to giving up on him. Look at a player like Joe Harris, had a 5.6 PER and 3.4 PER his first two years, considered awful for a 4 year college player. He started turning it on his 4th and 5th year though, and now shoots a blistering 47% from 3 in 8 attempts a game. The Jazz liked Allen's quick release and ability to shoot spotting up as well as off the dribble (a rare commodity). I expect them to be very patient with him.
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Even Joe Harris in his rookie season managed to shoot 40% from the field and 36.9% from deep in 51 games played and sporadic minutes in his rookie season so it's not like his shooting came from nowhere, there was just concerns about every other aspect of his game outside of the 3pt shot but I remember some Cavs fans liking him and thought he could be a bench SF. He had poor sophomore year %s but they're literally off 5 games where he got a few garbage time minutes, whereas he's around the same MPG in his rookie season as Allen is currently and the results are much better for him.

Being able to shoot off the dribble for a guard isn't that rare of a commodity, but I guess as Jazzfanz being stuck with Rubio/Exum/Mack/Burke/Burks it seems pretty rare to find. Forwards or bigs who can do it are much more sought after commodities than guards who can do it.
 
Sandman822 said:
Shamet had one bad month at the start of season in October where he had bad %s but since November he hasn't had a month where he shot below 40% from the field, and his 3pt% has consistently been above 37% and often in the 40% range for entire months. Allen is almost the reverse where he looked great in October but since then has been hot trash efficiency wise. Hueter has also been better overall efficiency wise on a month to month basis, albiet more inconsistent than Shamet, and he's also only 20 years old + has better size than Allen.

Donovan never looked that bad from an eye test or from a statistical standpoint in his rookie season last year. His worst month was December where he shot 38% from the field and 29% from deep, and iirc that was the first month where he started to get consistent play time. In the months prior to that he is far superior to Allen in almost every way despite getting inconsistent minutes too, and you could see since the Summer League that Mitchell had something special about him from a pure eye test point only that would make him a great player in the league if it translated to regular NBA games.

Like I said earlier I think Allen could still develop into a solid rotational player which for a late 1st is a fine enough return on the pick. But he's nowhere near the level of Shamet or Huerter as a rookie right now and unless he develops some PG skills or becomes an elite 3pt threat like a Redick or even where Shamet looks to be going he hasn't shown anything to suggest that he's going to be anything more than a rotational bench piece so far. I'm struggling to think of a 4 year college pro who shot as poorly as Allen has in their rookie season developing into a starting caliber NBA player. Can think of a number of 1-and-done guys but not 4 year guys.
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again you're stuck on stat watching which has worth in context of minutes played which has been my whole point and what @Handlogten's Heros has been saying. allen has played 12 games of 10 or more minutes out of 57 games the team has played so far and only 9.9 mpg overall for the season. huerter has played 52 games of 10 or more minutes with a per game average of 27.3 mpg out of 58 hawks games, shamet 55 out of 59 games of of 10 or more minutes with a season average of 20.9 mpg. it's no wonder they've gotten better since they've been getting time on the court to adjust. allen would be doing the exact same if give that opportunity.

that month donovan played in december has similarly bad %'s as allen but on much higher minutes played which actually makes donovan's stats worse comparatively given that much playing time. it's also a similar amount of games played during that december that grayson has played so far in terms of semi-meaningful minutes. you prove my point by saying that donocan got better thereafter. you don't think that was a result of going through those growing pains? same as huerter and shamet.

and again i'm not surprised that allen's %s look bad right now given how little he has played. it's impossible to get any consistency with how schizophrenic his PT has been. again, look at his preseason and g-league %s when he is playing legitimate rather than garbage minutes. those are far more realistic numbers for what he's capable of if he's given the time. use the eye test and stop boxscore watching.

where the jazz have f*cked up is having him rack up DNPs and garbage minutes with the A team when he should've been on the stars at least half this season to work on getting comfortable and learning the system/defense rather than rotting on the bench. he'd be alot more ready to help at end of season to give starters rest before playoffs and be able to contribute in playoffs.
 
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jazzETX said:
again you're stuck on stat watching which has worth in context of minutes played which has been my whole point and what @Handlogten's Heros has been saying. allen has played 12 games of 10 or more minutes out of 57 games the team has played so far and only 9.9 mpg overall for the season. huerter has played 52 games of 10 or more minutes with a per game average of 27.3 mpg out of 58 hawks games, shamet 55 out of 59 games of of 10 or more minutes with a season average of 20.9 mpg. it's no wonder they've gotten better since they've been getting time on the court to adjust. allen would be doing the exact same if give that opportunity.

that month donovan played in december has similarly bad %'s as allen but on much higher minutes played which actually makes donovan's stats worse comparatively given that much playing time. it's also a similar amount of games played during that december that grayson has played so far in terms of semi-meaningful minutes. you prove my point by saying that donocan got better thereafter. you don't think that was a result of going through those growing pains? same as huerter and shamet.

and again i'm not surprised that allen's %s look bad right now given how little he has played. it's impossible to get any consistency with how schizophrenic his PT has been. again, look at his preseason and g-league %s when he is playing legitimate rather than garbage minutes. those are far more realistic numbers for what he's capable of if he's given the time. use the eye test and stop boxscore watching.
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What is there about the eye test that suggests to you that Allen is going to be starting quality? I'm willing to completely overlook his defensive liabilities as most rookies suck on defense in their 1st year, but you watch him play and he's a guy who is a shooter but hasn't really shot well (and he wants to jack up shots if given the opportunity), has a lot of trouble finishing at the rim due to his lack of length, doesn't really have the skills to be able to run an offense at PG yet and doesn't have some explosive 1st step to get by defenders on the perimeter consistently in the NBA.

I look at the stats for him because what Grayson Allen projects to be in a best case scenario is a lethal shooter who is also a tough nosed defender on the other end, and there's nothing really to suggest that he will reach that best case scenario unlike someone like Mitchell who clearly showed star talent from summer league all the way to his inconsistent playing time before he cracked the rotation and eventually became the ROTY contender Mitchell.

I don't care for G League stats because plenty of rotational bench pieces or 3rd stringers in the NBA can or have gone down to the G League and dominate (which is what you'd hope for if they're on a NBA roster), and it's good that Allen at least can show that he does belong in the NBA. Using G League or college stats where the level of competition is significantly weaker and prioritising those over his NBA stats just because he gets more minutes is stupid though, and right now in Allen's young NBA career he has shown that he can't really play to the level of rotation NBA players (which is why he's buried on the bench), and there's nothing about him both from an eye test perspective or from a statistical perspective to suggest that he will become a starting caliber NBA player. You could watch Donovan Mitchell and see him have a stretch of play or do something which made you think "He's going to be special", but there's nothing about Allen's game that makes me think that and there's not even much there to suggest he could be a decent starting player.

It's not really a knock on him as he is a late 1st, and I'll keep repeating that him developing into a quality rotational bench piece is still good value for a late 1st. But at the same time there's pretty clear limitations on what he could be going forward and I don't think it's unfair to use his awful shooting %s in comparison to other 4 year college vets who came into the NBA and took a few years to develop but at least showed something % wise in their rookie seasons to suggest that they had a chance to develop, and overall he's just been underwhelming as 4 year college vets who are taken in the 1st round are expected to be able to contribute and Allen simply hasn't outside of a couple of stretches over the season. And before you tell me it's because he isn't getting consistent playing time, if he was actually capable of contributing to the team consistently he would get the minutes, as he's had opportunities to prove himself with injuries and the like but he just wasn't that good. Royce was in a similar spot earlier on in the season but has since re-established himself in the rotation as a key rotational piece from the same opportunity.

If there's something about Allen's game that convinces you from an eye test standpoint that he's going to be a good starting caliber player then I would love a link or something, but I'm not just boxscore watching like you're projecting. I think most people here would agree that Allen hasn't shown anywhere near the amount of intrigue/talent/whatever from an eye test standpoint compared to other guys on the team in their rookie seasons like Mitchell did early, what Royce showed in flashes, or even what Exum showed years back in his rookie season.
 
Sandman822 said:
What is there about the eye test that suggests to you that Allen is going to be starting quality? I'm willing to completely overlook his defensive liabilities as most rookies suck on defense in their 1st year, but you watch him play and he's a guy who is a shooter but hasn't really shot well (and he wants to jack up shots if given the opportunity), has a lot of trouble finishing at the rim due to his lack of length, doesn't really have the skills to be able to run an offense at PG yet and doesn't have some explosive 1st step to get by defenders on the perimeter consistently in the NBA.

I look at the stats for him because what Grayson Allen projects to be in a best case scenario is a lethal shooter who is also a tough nosed defender on the other end, and there's nothing really to suggest that he will reach that best case scenario unlike someone like Mitchell who clearly showed star talent from summer league all the way to his inconsistent playing time before he cracked the rotation and eventually became the ROTY contender Mitchell.

I don't care for G League stats because plenty of rotational bench pieces or 3rd stringers in the NBA can or have gone down to the G League and dominate (which is what you'd hope for if they're on a NBA roster), and it's good that Allen at least can show that he does belong in the NBA. Using G League or college stats where the level of competition is significantly weaker and prioritising those over his NBA stats just because he gets more minutes is stupid though, and right now in Allen's young NBA career he has shown that he can't really play to the level of rotation NBA players (which is why he's buried on the bench), and there's nothing about him both from an eye test perspective or from a statistical perspective to suggest that he will become a starting caliber NBA player. You could watch Donovan Mitchell and see him have a stretch of play or do something which made you think "He's going to be special", but there's nothing about Allen's game that makes me think that and there's not even much there to suggest he could be a decent starting player.

It's not really a knock on him as he is a late 1st, and I'll keep repeating that him developing into a quality rotational bench piece is still good value for a late 1st. But at the same time there's pretty clear limitations on what he could be going forward and I don't think it's unfair to use his awful shooting %s in comparison to other 4 year college vets who came into the NBA and took a few years to develop but at least showed something % wise in their rookie seasons to suggest that they had a chance to develop, and overall he's just been underwhelming as 4 year college vets who are taken in the 1st round are expected to be able to contribute and Allen simply hasn't outside of a couple of stretches over the season. And before you tell me it's because he isn't getting consistent playing time, if he was actually capable of contributing to the team consistently he would get the minutes, as he's had opportunities to prove himself with injuries and the like but he just wasn't that good. Royce was in a similar spot earlier on in the season but has since re-established himself in the rotation as a key rotational piece from the same opportunity.

If there's something about Allen's game that convinces you from an eye test standpoint that he's going to be a good starting caliber player then I would love a link or something, but I'm not just boxscore watching like you're projecting. I think most people here would agree that Allen hasn't shown anywhere near the amount of intrigue/talent/whatever from an eye test standpoint compared to other guys on the team in their rookie seasons like Mitchell did early, what Royce showed in flashes, or even what Exum showed years back in his rookie season.
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imma be honest with you; all i read was your first sentence but that was enough. what we have here is a failure to communicate...where in all of my responses did i talk about him being a starter? everything i've stated or referenced in this thread is about his ability to contribute as an nba player, whether off the bench, starting, whatever. alot of people here have said that he's not even an nba player which is nonsense. and AGAIN his stats would be concerning to me if those were the numbers he was putting up in consistent, regular/extended minutes. if you watch him play, he knows how to get open, he has near perfect shooting form which is encouraging in terms of ability to start hitting shots, he regularly is able to beat his man off the dribble (he has a deceptive first step) even w/o having super duper handles, and he can pass/find the open man. i've never had concern with him offensively, numbers will improve w/ gametime reps. defense has and is going to be his biggest challenge by far but at least he's shown the ability to learn and improve there even if he has a ways to go. he shown more than enough flashes on both sides of the ball to show that he belongs not just on an nba bench but can actually be a valuable rotation player. we can agree to disagree on that, IDGAF at this point; done with this thread.
 
If the issue is the failure of communication yet I've stressed the entire time that Grayson Allen could develop into a rotational bench player and that would be good value for the Jazz, but not much else (aka a contributing NBA player) then I think the communication failure is on your end.

He doesn't regularly beat people off the dribble unless the defense is rotating (kinda like Ingles in that regard) and he has no idea how to get by a secondary defender in the NBA, he knows how to get open but can't hit shots yet, and he can do basic NBA passes. He can't run a PnR, he can't run an offense, his handles aren't great. He needs his 3pt shot to become much, much better and most early returns on his NBA career suggest that he won't ever be a great to elite 3pt shooter and "good" is his best case scenario from behind the arc. But if he can also provide good defense off the bench, and figures out some of the other things he can't do now he'll be a contributing NBA player for sure. That's not something I've ever contested he couldn't be, he's just not going to be much more than that.
 
framer said:
Grayson's form looks like a shooter's form, like Donovan's. When he misses, it is generally an in-and-out- rather than clanging off the front or back of the rim like we get from Ricky or Exum. He gets his shot off in a hurry unlike past busts like Kirk Snyder and Morris Almond (and Jimmer, for that matter.) Allen's shooting will be fine. He will need MUCH better handles to play at his size, and be able to play passable defense. I suspect that Allen can learn all of the "old man tricks" that Jingles uses to equalize the athleticism of the players he is guarding due to his BBIQ. But that ball handling needs definite improvement before he gets meaningful minutes in important stretches of games.
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Actually good shooters are more likely to miss long or short but still be right on track. People with bad form, think Ronnie Brewer, tend to miss wide, clanging off the side of the rim.
 
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