Jackpotting Around Podcast: Episode 37 - Keandre Ashley of Hoop Intellect

[seattlejazzfan]

It's what we should be aiming for yes. I'm not sure Tre's chances are much higher if at all. Bucket getting is a hard way to make it onto the court in the playoffs.

hmmm...

 

[KqWIN]

What's funny is I have heard both compared to Bogdon Bogdanovic as median outcomes by two different draft evaluators. My stance has been really simple. These guys are very similar quality prospects at the same position. I'm good with either. The draft is random and maybe one guy smooths out his issues or translates better. Tre Truthers then throw up over that notion... and I find it hilarious.

The thing is, he kinda is both. If you took the advantages of both you would have what I think he could be. Let’s call theoretically fused player Bon. Does it matter that Bon Bogdanovic isn’t real?

I do think that having few examples is a good warning sign if you’re comparing it to someone totally unique. Remember when every guard who couldn’t shoot was Andre Miller? But I think that’s has to do with the uniqueness of those skills working instead of the amount of Andre Millers around. I’m not sure that applies to Bon.

My favorite comp for Kon is actually Brice with a brain. Even though that doesn’t exist in reality, I still think it’s ok to envision Kon as that?

It is a lot easier when you can just list off a bunch of guys like I can with Tre.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

hmmm...

I mean, Rob Dillingham played 16 minutes all postseason.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

I mean, Rob Dillingham played 16 minutes all postseason.

in what (nba) world was he a bucket getter? my dude averaged 4 ppg on 50% TS

if you can get buckets, you are extremely valuable in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and scoring is much harder to come by.

dillingham might be that guy some day. certainly wasn't this year.

 

[KqWIN]

Tre is a facsimile of Hield.
VJ is a facsimile of Melton.
Ace is a facsimile of Kuminga.

Can do this all day. Meaningless statements on their own.

 

[Elizah Huge]

One thing that was brought up a few times was that there is so many guys like VJ running around in the playoffs. I think that’s a feature, not a bug. It’s good for his chances of being a 16-game player like those guys and it’s also good for his chances of going beyond that.

A lot this resides in the belief that players can scale up, and it does happen. A lot of the things that would point to a player being able to be a future star are actually the things we’d typically associate with role players and a lot of the overrated things are the things we’d associate with being a star. It doesn’t always work out this way of course, but those have been the trends historically.

I think it’s a feature as well and tried to emphasize that.

 

[KqWIN]

in what (nba) world was he a bucket getter? my dude averaged 4 ppg on 50% TS

if you can get buckets, you are extremely valuable in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and scoring is much harder to come by.

dillingham might be that guy some day. certainly wasn't this year.

Why is it that the defenses are better. Does that have something to do with which players are getting the minutes?

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

in what (nba) world was he a bucket getter? my dude averaged 4 ppg on 50% TS

if you can get buckets, you are extremely valuable in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and scoring is much harder to come by.

dillingham might be that guy some day. certainly wasn't this year.

Okay, another example. Kuminga is an obvious 15-20 PPG scorer in the NBA who the Warriors refuse to play unless they have no options because of injuries.

Now, Kuminga is probably the single most delusional player in the NBA outside of randos like GG Jackson so he's an extreme outlier, lol.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We really going to pick a facsimile of Ty Jerome with the 5th pick?

Nah we taking Malik Beasley instead.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Probably Jalen Suggs with 36% three point shooting.

Tre and Kon are just really athletically limited and Ace is so limited skill wise that it's hard to see any of these guys as real stars.

Tre Johnson is athletically limited ?? . Wow. Dude look at the combine results

 

[fishonjazz]

You are hung up on the role player thing. Obviously no one knows what the WILL be but I think they are variation on the same theme. They will be high level starters in most reasonable ceiling outcomes. Do you prefer Desmond Bane or Tyler Herro... both could be more than that because anyone can be anything I guess.

I'm truly good with either. I think Kon will be more malleable. If you hit and land the 2nd or 3rd best player on your team at #5 that is a home run. I am not consumed with ppg potential of offensive engine potential. If I thought either guy could be a true offensive engine capable of leading a conference finals team... then they would be in a tier with Dylan Harper or maybe Flagg.

Kon was the second best player on the best team in the country... role player? If that role was world class ***-kicker then I guess you right.

My point was simply that in college one was a role player. Even if that role was world class *** kicker. One was the offensive engine of his team. Nothing more. Not trying to say one was better than the other or more valuable or anything else. I just didn't agree that they were both role players.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Tre Johnson is athletically limited ?? . Wow. Dude look at the combine results

Those don't matter at all.

 

[fishonjazz]

Why is it that the defenses are better. Does that have something to do with which players are getting the minutes?

I think it has to do with teams in the playoffs being better and players trying harder on defense (even bad defenders)
I think most rotations remain very similar in the playoffs to the rotations in the regular season.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

in what (nba) world was he a bucket getter? my dude averaged 4 ppg on 50% TS

if you can get buckets, you are extremely valuable in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and scoring is much harder to come by.

dillingham might be that guy some day. certainly wasn't this year.

He was also a rookie on a Western Conference team that felt like they had to win every game possible to make the playoffs so he never got developed

 

[fishonjazz]

Those don't matter at all.

They do as it pertains to whether a player is athletically limited or not. Like if a dude can jump high, run fast, and move side to side quickly then that dude is athletic. He still might prefer to just shoot threes if he is really good at shooting threes but he wouldn't be limited by his lack of athleticism because he wouldn't be lacking in athleticism.

 

[KqWIN]

Two relevant quotes from the article a posted a bit ago. This school of thought is not foolproof or gospel, but it's what history tells us.

Understand the Predictive Power of Statistical Indicators

Strong pre-NBA steal rate, AST/TOV1516, rebounding rates, STL+BLK relative to fouls have all been shown in various draft models to be predictive of strong NBA performance (and lack thereof vice versa). Layne Vashro, noted NBA draft modeler and NBA champion analyst for the Denver Nuggets has previously stated:

Scorers, and shooters in particular, tend to be overrated. Steals seem to be underrated at every position. Guys who put up stats in the areas you don't immediately think about for that position (i.e. Blks/Rebs for guards or Asts for bigs) tend to be underrated, and guys who struggle in those areas tend to be overrated. Especially more recently, older players tend to be underrated.17

Similarly, after putting together his own draft model, Jacob Frankel stated that “in general, the same stats from position to position are correlated with success, not just the ones that would be traditionally associated with each position. Rebounding is really important for guards and assists are really important for centers.”18 NBA draft modeling has come a long way since the public models circa 2015, especially behind closed doors, but in general, most of Layne’s and Jacob’s takeaways should hold.

One-Dimensional Scoring is Overrated

Microwave scoring without creation for others gets progressively more overrated as a player goes up in level, especially if the cost of expending energy on emptying a player’s bag is a corresponding loafing on defense. Let’s say a player can create his own 0.9 points per possession shot on demand given 18 or so seconds on the shot clock to empty his bag.24 When the alternative offensive action is to trust a bunch of high schoolers to create something without turning the ball over that 0.9 PPP on demand in the halfcourt can be insanely valuable. High school evaluators are not necessarily incorrect when rating “bucket-getters” very highly among high school players.

But the opportunity cost increases when the alternative is a college offense. 2024-25 D1 offensive efficiency was 1.062 PPP according to KenPom.25 And the opportunity cost is even greater when the alternative is an NBA offense. 2024-25 NBA offensive efficiency was 1.145 PPP according to Basketball Reference.26 Those numbers are global PPP that include transition and putback opportunities and, accordingly, overstate the efficiency of running halfcourt offense, but the principle and relative ordering holds. And to make matters worse, the level of coaching and advance scouting increases as a player goes up in level of competition. Better preparation to defend against one-dimensional players’ single dimension results in that dimension decreasing in value.

To be clear, shot creation is valuable, but it is especially so when it stresses the defense to defend both the player in question and the player’s teammates. But players like Cam Thomas, Zach LaVine, Julius Randle, and DeMar DeRozan, while incredibly talented, have skillsets much closer to “one-dimensional scorer” than “offensive hub.” And this shows up in their NBA impact metrics27 being underwhelming relative to their skill or talent level.

Sources of Edge in the NBA Draft Market

Is the NBA Draft Market Efficient?

nikoza2.substack.com

 

[NUMBERICA]

If you want a role player at 5 that’s cool. That’s just not for me.

The middle ground is where I’m at: trade down rather than reach (if you’re confident in your intel). Getting Kon at 8 and picking up multiple 1sts > picking Kon at 5.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Those don't matter at all.

you need to change your name to TookADumpHere

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

you need to change your name to TookADumpHere

Tre cannot get to the rim due to lack of agility and struggles with finishing, rebounding, defense, and help defense because of he has little explosion and strength. Harrison Barnes tested as arguably the best athlete in NBA combine history, the tests don't really matter.

You're drafting Tre because he can make jumpshots a high rate (no matter how contested) off of basically every single NBA action and seems like a smart guy.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Tre cannot get to the rim due to lack of agility and struggles with finishing, rebounding, defense, and help defense because of he has little explosion and strength. Harrison Barnes tested as arguably the best athlete in NBA combine history, the tests don't really matter.

You're drafting Tre because he can make jumpshots a high rate (no matter how contested) off of basically every single NBA action and seems like a smart guy.

so you're saying a guy who's testing shows the fastest shuttle runs/agility testing at the combine and a 37 inch vertical can't get to the rim ?? I think the bet that he develops that in the NBA is pretty good