Oh Good! A War With Iran!

[framer]

The proper action to take is to understand what they hope to gain by giving the U.S. justification for a military strike.

The idea you put forward, that they are irrational and that their religion inclines them to national suicide is incorrect. Try again.

Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.

 

[framer]

Iran’s not stupid. They know that world opinion isn’t on America’s side right now. No one supports regime change other than a few chicken hawks in America and Israel. But world support could change quickly if they do something stupid, like attack cargo ships coming out of the gulf.

Most importantly, hard to see Russia, Iran’s ally, permitting an attack like this. Putin doesn’t want the United States sniffing in his sphere of Influence.

Now the Japanese cargo ship’s owner says that the ship was attacked by something from the air. Could it have been terrorists? Sure maybe. Iran’s government actually ordering this attack/mining of the trading route? Doubt it.

I’m very distrusting of Pompeo’s claim that Iran did this. It’s not just because this regime lies about everything, including trivial matters, like its inauguration size. This story just doesn’t pass the smell test

Likely, Iran would have ordered the "hit" through a cutout. Just like they have used Hamas as a proxy in the past. Raising oil priced are essential to Iran AND to Russia, as well as just general instability in the region. What price did Putin pay for Russian troops operating "without cover" in the Ukraine? Mining a few ships isn't a difficult task to complete. Proving who did it without a doubt probably is. If it is found to be Iranians, they will probably be "arrested" and put to death by the Iranian regime without anyone having a chance to question them.

 

[Gameface]

Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.

I have nothing figured out. What I've advocated for in this thread is figuring it out before acting.

You have an adversary that you are accusing of a provocative series of actions that if true would almost certainly warrant a military response.

So, if you're the U.S. military, U.S. intelligence, U.S. executive branch, and you know you're not making this stuff up, well, then you have to wonder. You have to ask yourself why a vastly inferior power, like Iran, would invite a military strike from the most powerful military force in the history of mankind. You MUST ask that question and you MUST give all potential answers serious consideration.

Iran is aligned with Russia outright. So you must consider in this what Russia might gain or lose, why they might sign off on a oil tanker sabotage campaign by Iran.

But there is this thing, this loose alliance, that I've been very concerned about for many years. It is called BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India and China. This is a group of nations that want to unseat the U.S. as the sole world superpower.

So you have Iran acting badly... OK. You have this group of nations that represents I think more than 1/3 of the world population, who wants to trip you up, trick you, lure you into a devastating error. You don't just go swinging your dick around because you're so ****ing sure you're the biggest and baddest **** around. This isn't about brute force alone. You have to understand your enemy better than your enemy understands you. And I don't think we do. I think we're an open book and we are underestimating our opposition.

So when a minor player on the side of BRIC starts taking actions that warrant a military response I think it is absolutely essential to understand why they might want to egg us on. Why they might want to take the blow we might deliver.

Let us not be fools. Let us not stumble over our own arrogance.

 

[One Brow]

Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.

That was a miscalculation based on misunderstood communications with Bush 41's team, IIRC.

 

[The Thriller]

Likely, Iran would have ordered the "hit" through a cutout. Just like they have used Hamas as a proxy in the past. Raising oil priced are essential to Iran AND to Russia, as well as just general instability in the region. What price did Putin pay for Russian troops operating "without cover" in the Ukraine? Mining a few ships isn't a difficult task to complete. Proving who did it without a doubt probably is. If it is found to be Iranians, they will probably be "arrested" and put to death by the Iranian regime without anyone having a chance to question them.

Completely different. Ukraine (moving away from Russia’s orbit and towards the UN) and Russia have a history, especially that region of Crimea. The last thing Putin wants is for the United States to have justification to start another middle eastern war.

 

[Getting Traded]

Are you counting Iran as a perfectly rational actor? It is highly possible that they might not be. They have been subsidizing all kinds of killing against American interests, and outside of the sanctions that were lifted under Obama, have faced almost no repercussions. They probably ascribe that to "God's Will."

Here's a question, if Iran IS bombing ships in the Strait what is the proper action to take?

We've been trying to find an excuse to wage war against Iran for a number of years. This is just another bogus attempt. If you recall, CIA whistleblower, Jeffrey Sterling, who was convicted for revealing this information, showed that the U.S. was involved in a plot to erroneously show that Iran was secretly working on nuclear capabilities in violation the Nuclear agreement negotiated by Kerry.

 

[The Thriller]

It doesn’t sound like our IC is communicating well with our executive:

 

[Getting Traded]

Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.

You think our intelligence agencies are honest. Read some histories of the CIA, which is basically legalized organized crime.

 

[The Thriller]

We've been trying to find an excuse to wage war against Iran for a number of years. This is just another bogus attempt. If you recall, CIA whistleblower, Jeffrey Sterling, who was convicted for revealing this information, showed that the U.S. was involved in a plot to erroneously show that Iran was secretly working on nuclear capabilities in violation the Nuclear agreement negotiated by Kerry.

This is a big reason why I’m distrusting of Pompeo. By all UN reports, Iran has kept their side of the nuclear arms treaty. We were the ones who backed out while our European allies and Iran stayed in. Iran has no incentive to give our allies an easy out of the treaty and the United States an easy excuse to invade. Iran wants to do business with Europe n

 

[framer]

I have nothing figured out. What I've advocated for in this thread is figuring it out before acting.

You have an adversary that you are accusing of a provocative series of actions that if true would almost certainly warrant a military response.

So, if you're the U.S. military, U.S. intelligence, U.S. executive branch, and you know you're not making this stuff up, well, then you have to wonder. You have to ask yourself why a vastly inferior power, like Iran, would invite a military strike from the most powerful military force in the history of mankind. You MUST ask that question and you MUST give all potential answers serious consideration.

Iran is aligned with Russia outright. So you must consider in this what Russia might gain or lose, why they might sign off on a oil tanker sabotage campaign by Iran.

But there is this thing, this loose alliance, that I've been very concerned about for many years. It is called BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India and China. This is a group of nations that want to unseat the U.S. as the sole world superpower.

So you have Iran acting badly... OK. You have this group of nations that represents I think more than 1/3 of the world population, who wants to trip you up, trick you, lure you into a devastating error. You don't just go swinging your dick around because you're so ****ing sure you're the biggest and baddest **** around. This isn't about brute force alone. You have to understand your enemy better than your enemy understands you. And I don't think we do. I think we're an open book and we are underestimating our opposition.

So when a minor player on the side of BRIC starts taking actions that warrant a military response I think it is absolutely essential to understand why they might want to egg us on. Why they might want to take the blow we might deliver.

Let us not be fools. Let us not stumble over our own arrogance.

I have no disagreements with anything said here, other than the assumption that Iran is a client state of Russia. I believe Iran capable of making decisions independently of Russia's wishes, much like Saudi Arabia "considers" what the US desires.

 

[Gameface]

I have no disagreements with anything said here, other than the assumption that Iran is a client state of Russia. I believe Iran capable of making decisions independently of Russia's wishes, much like Saudi Arabia "considers" what the US desires.

I'm not saying Iran is acting according to Russia's wishes, I'm asking what if they are?

 

[framer]

This is a big reason why I’m distrusting of Pompeo. By all UN reports, Iran has kept their side of the nuclear arms treaty. We were the ones who backed out while our European allies and Iran stayed in. Iran has no incentive to give our allies an easy out of the treaty and the United States an easy excuse to invade. Iran wants to do business with Europe n

All UN Reports. . .

 

[framer]

I'm not saying Iran is acting according to Russia's wishes, I'm asking what if they are?

To be honest, it doesn't matter. Russia benefits highly from a belligerent Iran, whether they sign off on Iran's behavior or not. They aren't likely to step in to stop Iran from doing anything stupid. If the stalemate drags on, they sell weapons. If there is military action, they make more money from their oil. If a military option goes awry, they benefit from that too. There is no downside for them no matter what happens.

 

[DasJazz]

Cripple Iran with unrelenting sanctions and freeze money supplies to their country. If they continue to act as an aggressor, that's when military options should come into play.

 

[Gameface]

Cripple Iran with unrelenting sanctions and freeze money supplies to their country. If they continue to act as an aggressor, that's when military options should come into play.

If they are blowing holes in oil tankers they are acting as an aggressor despite sanctions...

But on that subject, I absolutely and vehemently disagree with your approach.

Sanctions and frozen monetary assets are an attack by us directed at the most vulnerable and most innocent people in Iran. Sanctions are far more cruel than bombings, and bombings are more cruel than a ground invasion. Why, as such a powerful nation, do we strongly prefer the most cruel and most inhumane ways of manipulating our adversaries? Not only that, but they know these tricks. Sanctions has been our go-to for more than 30 years. They know how to play that game. It's not a fun game, but they know how to shift the pain onto the poor, the women and children, and mostly shield themselves from any of it.

Sanctions are the cowards weapons. They aren't more humane. They aren't more civilised. They are the most despicable. They target the weak and the innocent.

We need to end that strategy.

 

[framer]

Cripple Iran with unrelenting sanctions and freeze money supplies to their country. If they continue to act as an aggressor, that's when military options should come into play.

I think the problem we have run into is that the United States cannot enforce crippling sanctions. Too many other countries will fill in that gap, which is why we caved on the "deal" made a few years ago.

 

[The Thriller]

All UN Reports. . .

Did you actually read the article you posted? It even admits that it’s very debatable as to whether Iran actually violated the treaty by testing the missile. I don’t think you junk a nuclear arms treaty over something so ambiguous

 

[The Thriller]

Cripple Iran with unrelenting sanctions and freeze money supplies to their country. If they continue to act as an aggressor, that's when military options should come into play.

I think that would make them more desperate and force them to develop nukes faster.

 

[Jazzta]

Iran is no joke, the Persian have never lost an inch of territory throughout history, forget about a successful ground invasion. Besides that, the US would be fighting a losing war, the global spectrum is changing, and the US external policies are becoming ever less popular in the world. There’s more things to fix at home anyway.

This whole oil tanker thing stinks, takes me back to the “phantom” WMD’s found in Irak.

 

[LogGrad98]

That was a miscalculation based on misunderstood communications with Bush 41's team, IIRC.

So there isn't a possibility of a miscalculation based on miscommunication with perhaps unknown talks with another power? Or is it only communication with Americans that cause such miscalculation?