Rational people can take an irrational action, especially if they assume they won't get caught or incorrectly assume a particular political climate. Saddam Hussain invading Kuwait comes to mind. Hopefully our intelligence service is consulting with you since you have this all figured out.
I have nothing figured out. What I've advocated for in this thread is figuring it out before acting.
You have an adversary that you are accusing of a provocative series of actions that if true would almost certainly warrant a military response.
So, if you're the U.S. military, U.S. intelligence, U.S. executive branch, and you know you're not making this stuff up, well, then you have to wonder. You have to ask yourself why a vastly inferior power, like Iran, would invite a military strike from the most powerful military force in the history of mankind. You MUST ask that question and you MUST give all potential answers serious consideration.
Iran is aligned with Russia outright. So you must consider in this what Russia might gain or lose, why they might sign off on a oil tanker sabotage campaign by Iran.
But there is this thing, this loose alliance, that I've been very concerned about for many years. It is called BRIC. Brazil, Russia, India and China. This is a group of nations that want to unseat the U.S. as the sole world superpower.
So you have Iran acting badly... OK. You have this group of nations that represents I think more than 1/3 of the world population, who wants to trip you up, trick you, lure you into a devastating error. You don't just go swinging your dick around because you're so ****ing sure you're the biggest and baddest **** around. This isn't about brute force alone. You have to understand your enemy better than your enemy understands you. And I don't think we do. I think we're an open book and we are underestimating our opposition.
So when a minor player on the side of BRIC starts taking actions that warrant a military response I think it is absolutely essential to understand why they might want to egg us on. Why they might want to take the blow we might deliver.
Let us not be fools. Let us not stumble over our own arrogance.