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We Are No. 27

franklin said:
On Hayward-Manu, I think you guys are severely underrating Manu by calling him a third option. Hard to ever say someone else is a first option on a Tim Duncan team, but several years the Spurs had three first options. Manu had a higher use% than Tim and Tony in 2008 @ 28.7%, and led them in ppg.

I think the reason Manu's looked at as a third fiddle is because he's an off ball and a catch and drive player. That's the role I want Hayward to develop into, and if he learns to finish around the rim like Manu could then the league had better watch out. Hayward's already a better 3 point shooter and that makes the Manu attack even more deadly as you have to either give up the three or guard tight and give up the drive defense.
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Manu's drive game as of now is far-superior to Hayward's, though. Manu > George, and Hayward IMO. For the time being, that is.

Hayward is honestly so well-rounded in every other facet. Competent defender, great shooter, competent passer, stellar BBIQ. If he can just hone his dribble-drive, it'll open up his offensive-repertoire completely. He still looks a little awkward going to the hoop-- even in the scrimmage. But then again, many said that about Manu for the longest time.


I'm just excited to see these young kids grow in front of our eyes. Bring on the season!
 
dalamon said:
Hayward is honestly so well-rounded in every other facet. Competent defender, great shooter, competent passer, stellar BBIQ. If he can just hone his dribble-drive, it'll open up his offensive-repertoire completely. He still looks a little awkward going to the hoop-- even in the scrimmage. But then again, many said that about Manu for the longest time.
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Manu was great at hiding the ball to get around defenders and then forcing contact with the guy who helps. Gordon is still trying to dribble around guys and using shoulder shivers and things that don't really work at this level. When he does get around, he tries to go around the next guy too, so his primary defender can catch up and double team. He needs to forget about the guy he just burned and go right at the helper.

He added a nice little behind the back direction change last year to hide the ball. I'm looking for that to be much improved and hoping he's adding a ball curl with long, physical steps to draw contact.

He's still trying to dribble around people and using shoulder shivers and side stepping. He needs to learn how to hide the ball better like Manu does, and to initiate contact to get around defenders.
 
franklin said:
Manu was great at hiding the ball to get around defenders and then forcing contact with the guy who helps. Gordon is still trying to dribble around guys and using shoulder shivers and things that don't really work at this level. When he does get around, he tries to go around the next guy too, so his primary defender can catch up and double team. He needs to forget about the guy he just burned and go right at the helper.

He added a nice little behind the back direction change last year to hide the ball. I'm looking for that to be much improved and hoping he's adding a ball curl with long, physical steps to draw contact.

He's still trying to dribble around people and using shoulder shivers and side stepping. He needs to learn how to hide the ball better like Manu does, and to initiate contact to get around defenders.
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Solid evaluation..... good info
 
Didn't Hayward say he was focusing on his ball handling more this off-season? I wait him to improve his dribbling the most and if he finally gets a floater he will be unstoppable.
 
Revolution 9 said:
We are horrible in the sense that we won't win a lot of games. I think we will compete, have a lot of exciting games, and win some we shouldn't.

We'll be interesting, hopefully exciting, no matter how many games we lose.
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That's my hope. But I still think we're better than a few other teams: Philly, Boston, Phoenix, Orlando, perhaps Charlotte and Cleveland. Maybe even the Lakers depending on the health of Kobe, Pau and Nash. I'd say we're in the 5-8 range.
 
I think Utah's starters will be much better than expected but the management didn't get the team a bench, so I could see this team hitting a wall hard after the all star break.
 
Hekate said:
Didn't Hayward say he was focusing on his ball handling more this off-season? I wait him to improve his dribbling the most and if he finally gets a floater he will be unstoppable.
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Don't forget confidence. Last two seasons he could get into the lane, sometimes at will, but then looked lost which made his dribble drive look awkward. It didnt help that packing the paint was SOP against the jazz... Attacking the help d combined with a short-range game will open up everything for him. Everything.

He's 23, this is going to come.
 
Exactly the same as '04. Ranked low, beat more teams than people think, mid-level lottery pick. I thought this already got hashed and rehashed.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Exactly the same as '04. Ranked low, beat more teams than people think, mid-level lottery pick. I thought this already got hashed and rehashed.
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Who will teach them the offense they ran in '04?

I thought this already got hashed and rehashed?
 
LogGrad98 said:
Exactly the same as '04. Ranked low, beat more teams than people think, mid-level lottery pick. I thought this already got hashed and rehashed.
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I'm curious to compare the two teams. Let's see what we find:

Carlos Arroyo - 28 mins, 44% fg, 33% 3pt, 80% ft, 3 rebs, 5 assists, 0.5 TO's, 1 steal, 13 pts. I don't see a pg on the roster than can do that. 2004 wins (I don't even think we have a pg that will play as good as Lopez did that year: 7 pts and 4 assists). Toss in Mo on top of that...PG was much, much better in 2004.

Raja Bell - 25 mins, 41% fg, 37% 3pt, 79% ft, 3 rebs, 1 assist, 1 steal, 11 pts. Hayward is better. 2013 wins. Unless Burks starts here. If Burks has this season, that would be amazing. So, Hayward better, Burks - best case scenario. So, if we go Burks here, 2004 better or push. Stevenson was backing Bell up. Stevenson had 12 pts a game. This would be best case scenario for this year's upcoming team: To have Rush have a season like Bell and Burke have a season like Stevenson.

Andrei Kirilenko - 37 mins, 44% fg, 34% 3pt, 80% ft, 8 rebs, 3 assists, 2 steals, 17 pts. Let's put him up against Hayward. Again, if Hayward can have this type of year, that would be amazing with him having to shoulder the burden of the team. So, 2004 wins or a push.

Matt Harpring - 37 mins, 47% fg, 25% 3pt, 69% ft, 8 rebs, 2 assists, 1 steal, 16 pts. If Favors or Kanter could have a year like this...wow. That would be great again. So, this would be best case scenario for Kanter (I put Kanter here because he will probably attempt some threes...and should be able to hit 25% of them). So, 2004 is better or push.

Ostertag - 28 mins, 48% fg, 0% 3pt, 58% ft, 7 rebs, 2 assists, 0.5 steals, 7 pts. Favors had better be better than Ostertag.

So, out of five positions, only one position will be guaranteed to be better this year, and that is the Favors vs Ostertag spot.

2004's PG position was much, much better than ours, with Arroyo, Lopez and Mo Williams.

2004's SG position is our best case scenario with Bell and DeShaun.

2004's SF position is our best case scenario with how well AK played and how many minutes AK played.

2004's PF position is our best case scenario with well Matt Harpring played and the minutes. If Kanter could play Matt's minutes....Wow, that would be awesome.

2013 C position had better be better with Favors vs Ostertag.

So, everyone of 2004's starters were as good or better than our starters. Let's look at the bench, shall we?

PG - Lopez, Mo Williams vs Lucas, Clark...Huh, a solid player and future all star vs ....uh...crap. 2004 wins.
SG - Giri/DeShaun vs Burks. Hopefully a push. DeShawn shot 45% fg and had 11 pts. Giri had 43 fg%, 36 3pt, 14 pts. If Burks can do that...well, then awesome. So 2004 is better to maybe, maybe a push.
SF - The backup was Giri, Harp, and AK. AK played 38 mins a game. I don't know if Hayward can play that many minutes, or if the Jazz will even let him play that many minutes. AK spent the rest of his career hurt. Look at his games played, starting in 2002-2003 season: 80, 78 (when he played 38 mins a game), 41, 69,70. If I were Utah, I would not waste Hayward in a tank year. I let him play in the low 30's MAX. So, it is AK, Giri, and Harp vs Richard Jefferson and Marvin Williams. 2004 better.
PF/C - Again, AK, Gugliotta, Collins and Ruffin vs Biedrens, Gobert and Evans. Uh, that is pathetic. 2004 better.
 
To sum up that monstrosity above, the only starter we have this year that will definitely be better than the 2004 starter is the Favors vs Ostertag matchup. If Kanter, Hayward, and Burks can reproduce what AK, Harp and Bell did, that would be fantastic, but they probably won't. And there is no way Burke will play as well as Arroyo.

2004's bench was light year's ahead of 2013's bench. Our backup bigs are Biedrens, Gobert and Evans. Can you imagine if Kanter or Favors sits out 5 games and Gobert and Evans are counted on for 20+ mins? Guaranteed loss right there. Pretty much chalk up every game that Kanter and Favors misses as a loss. If they miss 10 games combined...we will be a bottom three team.

FINALLY, what really makes 2004 better than 2013, and I mean a lot better are two key people that aren't coaching anymore: Sloan and Phil Johnson. Corbin and whatever crap he has beside him aren't even close. Those two are so much better, so much more qualified, so much more equipped...It's almost sad how bad Corbin compared to an average coach...let alone those two.

If you think this team has a chance to do what 2004 did...I'm sorry.
 
Also, Harp played 37 mins a night. There is no way Kanter will be able to stay on the floor that long. That means more minutes for Biedrens/Evans/Gobert which = more losses.
 
Also, don't forget how important a PG is...and we don't have one. 2004 and 4 (Mo, Lopez, Arroyo, AK). We maybe have one (Hayward). Maybe by the end of the year Burke will be as good as Arroyo was that year.

Also, Gordon has never played a full season. 72/66/72. So, if he misses 10 games again, there is 10 more losses.

So, if Gordon/Favors/Kanter miss 15 games next year (which is possible, none of them have played more than 77 games, Hayward (72), Favors (77), Kanter (70)...29 games missed in their best seasons), that is almost a guaranteed 15 losses. Ouch.
 
And, don't let me understate the difference between Corbin and Sloan/Johnson. That right there is worth at LEAST 7 wins. At least. So, 2004 went 42-40. Corbin costs us 7 games. 35-47. Favors, Hayward and Kanter miss 10 games. Boom, right there you are at 25-57. That would have gotten you the fifth pick this last year.

Ouch. The more I look into this, the more it looks like we will be beyond awful this year. This doesn't even include games where Favors/Kanter get into foul trouble (2-3 losses), Burke loses a game with a costly TO at the end of the game (2-3 losses), Hayward have an off night shooting (2-3 games). That right there drops us down to 19 wins. #1 pick baby.

We really are going to be in the running for Wiggins. Hopefully the best night of next year is that crazy, crazy night in May (or is the lottery in June?). Get to the ESA early, because that place will be packed.
 
And I haven't even taken into account games where the starters play the other team close and then the bench loses the games. We will pretend those are the first 47 losses.

20 wins might be quite the accomplishment for this Jazz team next year.
 
So they are just like the '04 team. Ranked low, will win more games than people think, mid-range draft pick.
 
LogGrad98 said:
So they are just like the '04 team. Ranked low, will win more games than people think, mid-range draft pick.
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How are they like '04? Who is going to be the pg? What players will be able to play 38 mins a night? What coach is similar to Sloan/Johnson?

Thanks Richard.
 
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