You know the guy you have to have leading your team to be a serious contender for a title? And preferably you want more than one?
Since we're likely beginning to settle down to reality this season, I figured it's a good time to try to calculate the odds.
1st (worst record) =11.2%
2nd = 10.7%
3rd = 10.3%
4th = 9.6%
5th = 8.9%
6th = 8.0%
7th = 7.4%
8th = 6.8%
9th = 6.1%
10th = 5.3%
11th = 4.4%
12th = 4.1%
13th = 3.9%
14th = 3.6%
15th = 3.3%
This is for an average year, mind you, so take it with a grain of salt for this draft class (though keep in mind as well that the NBA is a zero-sum game; you can't have all years be above average). Interesting that the best average odds are really no better than 1 in 9 for getting THAT GUY with a league-worst finish.
I calculated these odds by figuring out how many THAT GUYs have been drafted in the 30 years up until the Luka draft (too soon to really call things after the Luka draft), figuring out where they were drafted and then combining that information with the current draft lottery odds.
I identified 36 THAT GUYs over the 30 years, so on average there's just a hair over one per draft. Every NBA finals participant (both winners and losers) had at least one of THAT GUY on their team. These are guys you can imagine being the most important player on a championship team if everything breaks right for that team. So a step up from what Donovan and Rudy were with the Jazz. I used primarily 1st and 2nd team all-NBA players to figure out who is a THAT GUY. But even many one- or two-time second-team All-NBA players didn't make the cut (Julius Randle, Demar Derozan, Gobert, etc). Even two one-time first teamers didn't (DeAndre Jordan, Joakim Noah). The following players were on the margins of making my THAT GUY category, just to give an indication: Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Paul George, Devin Booker, Amare Stoudamire, Chris Webber. I made Jimmy Butler an honorary THAT GUY because his playoff performances regularly exceed his regular season performances and the 2020 Heat would have been the only finals contender over the past 35+ years without a THAT GUY otherwise.
(By the way, if you get the #1 pick in the lottery, the odds for getting THAT GUY jump to 26.7% -- which of course means that even the #1 pick turns out to be THAT GUY only about once every four years.)
Since we're likely beginning to settle down to reality this season, I figured it's a good time to try to calculate the odds.
1st (worst record) =11.2%
2nd = 10.7%
3rd = 10.3%
4th = 9.6%
5th = 8.9%
6th = 8.0%
7th = 7.4%
8th = 6.8%
9th = 6.1%
10th = 5.3%
11th = 4.4%
12th = 4.1%
13th = 3.9%
14th = 3.6%
15th = 3.3%
This is for an average year, mind you, so take it with a grain of salt for this draft class (though keep in mind as well that the NBA is a zero-sum game; you can't have all years be above average). Interesting that the best average odds are really no better than 1 in 9 for getting THAT GUY with a league-worst finish.
I calculated these odds by figuring out how many THAT GUYs have been drafted in the 30 years up until the Luka draft (too soon to really call things after the Luka draft), figuring out where they were drafted and then combining that information with the current draft lottery odds.
I identified 36 THAT GUYs over the 30 years, so on average there's just a hair over one per draft. Every NBA finals participant (both winners and losers) had at least one of THAT GUY on their team. These are guys you can imagine being the most important player on a championship team if everything breaks right for that team. So a step up from what Donovan and Rudy were with the Jazz. I used primarily 1st and 2nd team all-NBA players to figure out who is a THAT GUY. But even many one- or two-time second-team All-NBA players didn't make the cut (Julius Randle, Demar Derozan, Gobert, etc). Even two one-time first teamers didn't (DeAndre Jordan, Joakim Noah). The following players were on the margins of making my THAT GUY category, just to give an indication: Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Paul George, Devin Booker, Amare Stoudamire, Chris Webber. I made Jimmy Butler an honorary THAT GUY because his playoff performances regularly exceed his regular season performances and the 2020 Heat would have been the only finals contender over the past 35+ years without a THAT GUY otherwise.
(By the way, if you get the #1 pick in the lottery, the odds for getting THAT GUY jump to 26.7% -- which of course means that even the #1 pick turns out to be THAT GUY only about once every four years.)
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