How the Western Conference is Shaping Up

[cjs55]

There's 5 teams clearly ahead of the rest: GSW, Hou, SAS, OKC, Min

4 teams clearly worse than the rest: Dal, Sac, LAL, PHX

And then there's the muck: Uta, LAC, NO, Mem, Den, Por

We could end up anywhere in the bottom or the top of the muck. Our success is contingent on injuries, if Burks or Favors can have a come back season, and how Exum and Mitchell perform this year. If Gobert misses more than 20 games, we are in tank mode. That said, I think the upside is extremely bright as well. We should have a top 3 defense again this year, if anything it could be better than last years with a healthier Favors and Rubio. This does depend massively on Gobert's health of course, but if he's healthy, our defense alone keeps us around .500. While our offense is subpar, it is still going to be better than the absolute dregs of the league. 2nd ranked defense + 24th ranked offense = About 43 wins even in the brutal west.

If I had to throw out win total guesses right now, I'd go

GSW 66
Hou 59
SAS 55
OKC 54
Min 49
Uta 44
LAC 43
Den 42
NO 41
Por 41
Mem 40
Dal 28
Sac 28
LAL 26
Phx 21

 

[fishonjazz]

I've been predicting the Spurs to drop for the last (who knows how many) years.

One of these years I'll be right.

This

 

[Ron Mexico]

This

Yeah, I don't think they will drop off or not be the second or third best team in the West but I think they will win a couple less games. Losing Parker and Ginobli will hurt them along with the la situation. Is Gasol re-signed? Either way he is going downhill. They have one elite player and good role players and a good system. Sounds like the Jazz...

 

[mellow]

[TWEET]884445108443246593[/TWEET]
https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/884445108443246593


This analytic projection shows Utah with more wins (0.1) than Hogwarts new team.

 

[Ron Mexico]

[TWEET]884445108443246593[/TWEET]
https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/884445108443246593


This analytic projection shows Utah with more wins (0.1) than Hogwarts new team.

Dont be a homer. We are never winning a game again ever.

 

[Ron Mexico]

[TWEET]884445108443246593[/TWEET]
https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/884445108443246593


This analytic projection shows Utah with more wins (0.1) than Hogwarts new team.

Here is what his projections said last season:

 

[stitches]

[TWEET]884445108443246593[/TWEET]
https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/884445108443246593


This analytic projection shows Utah with more wins (0.1) than Hogwarts new team.

It would be priceless if the Jazz win more games than Hayward. LOL.

 

[mellow]

The author admits Utah is probably too high in the early models and will probably adjust downward in the more advanced models because of their anticipated inability to score.

Maybe the Jazz can sign UFA Shabazz Muhammad and let him chuck it 23 times a night.

 

[stitches]

The author admits Utah is probably too high in the early models and will probably adjust downward in the more advanced models because of their anticipated inability to score.

Maybe the Jazz can sign UFA Shabazz Muhammad and let him chuck it 23 times a night.

If we need someone to chuck, just get Treyd back. He will also cost a lot less.

 

[Miggs]

Well, I was buying into this...until I saw the Pels projection of 49.5 wins. Rofl. They won't even crack 29.5.

 

[JazzFever]

[TWEET]884445108443246593[/TWEET]
https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/884445108443246593


This analytic projection shows Utah with more wins (0.1) than Hogwarts new team.

Looks roughly correct/likely

 

[JazzFever]

Where roughly equals +- 5 games during a mostly injury free season for a team

 

[JAZZGASM]

Where roughly equals +- 5 games during a mostly injury free season for a team

Over the past few seasons I have been ready for Utah to take off only to have a ton of injuries. Seems to be the status quo with this group unfortunately. Hopefully the injury bug will go away.

 

[cjs55]

One thing to take into account is that analytic projections won't be taking into account how stcaked the west is (and how bad the east is).

 

[Ron Mexico]

Broncster putting the Jazz 4th in the West? LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

You thinking we're going to be the same as last year is laughable at best

Not a chance we get a higher seed over the wolves. Broncster our team got worse, we didn't get better LOLLLLLLL

Well it might not happen but I dont think its that lol worthy. If we had a healthy Gobert this year I think we would be in the 3rd or 4th seed pretty comfortably. I think Gobert would have got us 4-6 more wins during the games he missed or the ones he played not quite healthy.

But I do think we end up 5th this year, just like last year. We have less wins but the West is tougher conference this year and teams beat themselves up more.

 

[Siro]

Shad has always been a hater. He was 100% right about Hayward tho. Probably one of a select few who got it right.

 

[RJF]

Well it might not happen but I dont think its that lol worthy. If we had a healthy Gobert this year I think we would be in the 3rd or 4th seed pretty comfortably. I think Gobert would have got us 4-6 more wins during the games he missed or the ones he played not quite healthy.

But I do think we end up 5th this year, just like last year. We have less wins but the West is tougher conference this year and teams beat themselves up more.

He’s missed 26. Personally I think with him that’s 10+ more wins.

 

[mellow]

A fun blast from the past.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Shad has always been a hater. He was 100% right about Hayward tho. Probably one of a select few who got it right.

That is true. If you always predict negative you will sometimes get it right. But he also thought last year with Hayward we would be an 8th seed at best.

 

[Ron Mexico]

He’s missed 26. Personally I think with him that’s 10+ more wins.

Yeah, and he even had some games where he came back in between injuries that he still looked hobbled. Honestly he looked a little off to start the year as well which made me question his health.


Based on our win percentage with him predicting 10 more games would be fine. I was taking a very conservative estimate. But I think its safe to assume we would have won more games if he was healthy all year.

Great news is we have him healthy now when it matters! I hope we stay healthy into and through the playoffs.