I kind of get the argument. Take away the 1-14 start and the Jazz are 20-25. Stretch that over the entire season and it's still just 36-46. Injuries? Every team deals with them. I'm too lazy to look it up, but deduct for those 15 games and I'll bet the Jazz don't have an alarming number of games missed to injuries.
The other caveat is that you can't entirely dismiss the 1-14 start. It was a BRUTAL schedule with more away games than home, and a very tough SOS. Even with Burke, Evans and Williams all healthy from Day 1, I'd suggest the record may only have improved 3-5 games.
So let's be generous and give the Jazz 5 more wins over that stretch. They're now 26-34 with a winning % of .433. That translates to a 35-47 record.
Would 35-36 wins be overachieving with this squad? Remember, in both scenarios we've completely removed the effects of having Harris, Tinsley and Lucas in the lineup.