No one is rights... estimates are estimates. I think Gavin Newsome waaaaaayyyy overestimating the numbers is harmful in getting the compliance to some of the things he enforced... but he wasn’t any here near the ballpark. A hundred thousand one way or another is understandable. I also have no idea how accurate the numbers are... example we all got it and confirmed with positive tests. My brother in law’s family got it but only his wife took a test. I think there are a **** ton in unreported cases. I don’t know if deaths are under or over reported. Guessing they might be slightly over.What is your point? Just that OB was wrong about something? Just trying to figure out what's going on here.
On this page we provide an overview of excess mortality along with charts to explore the data. You can learn in more depth about different measures of excess mortality, their strengths and limitations, and their comparability across countries in our work with John Muellbauer and Janine Aron.ourworldindata.org
Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causesduring a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.1 In this case, we’re interested in how deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compare to the average number of deaths over the same period in previous years.
Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.3