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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

I find it interesting that Kon is dismissed as the rim stuff won't work... when he actually did get there and actually did have success there. With other guys that didn't get there as much and didn't have as much success when they got there. cough - Tre - cough

Before we blame Tre's terrible Texas team... This is something he struggled with in HS.


View: https://x.com/slipthescreen/status/1830752589140390294


I don't hate Tre at all... I just think Kon belongs in the VJ/Ace/Tre group. Its weird to me that Kon is dismissed as low upside when honestly... all are looking like they project as role players more than stars.
 
I find it interesting that Kon is dismissed as the rim stuff won't work... when he actually did get there and actually did have success there. With other guys that didn't get there as much and didn't have as much success when they got there. cough - Tre - cough

Before we blame Tre's terrible Texas team... This is something he struggled with in HS.


View: https://x.com/slipthescreen/status/1830752589140390294


I don't hate Tre at all... I just think Kon belongs in the VJ/Ace/Tre group. Its weird to me that Kon is dismissed as low upside when honestly... all are looking like they project as role players more than stars.

I could say the exact same thing but opposite about off the dribble shooting stuff.

Kon had the privilege of playing off of Flagg and with a PnR big like Maluach.
 

I feel like Kon is getting so much credit for this theoretical PnR game and also post up game. Sometimes it feels like more credit than the guys who actually did those things and were good at them. And maybe he is as good or better than them at doing it....but some credit needs to be given to the guys who did it.
 
I could say the exact same thing but opposite about off the dribble shooting stuff.

Kon had the privilege of playing off of Flagg and with a PnR big like Maluach.
Right... but he just didn't do it often because he wasn't really asked to... or maybe he wasn't good at it and that is why. I think all these guys have warts but Kon is "low upside" because of how he looks and that he has stubby arms.

Playing well with others is a feature... not a bug.

I'm also not discounting Tre... I think Kon and Tre belong in the same conversation... with Ace and VJ.
 
I feel like Kon is getting so much credit for this theoretical PnR game and also post up game. Sometimes it feels like more credit than the guys who actually did those things and were good at them. And maybe he is as good or better than them at doing it....but some credit needs to be given to the guys who did it.
I haven't seen much on the post game stuff. Just that he gets to the paint and finishes at a good rate... whether of pump and go or coming off handoffs or while doing the PnR stuff. Not sure of the other guys you are thinking of when it comes to the "these guys actually did it".
 
I haven't seen much on the post game stuff. Just that he gets to the paint and finishes at a good rate... whether of pump and go or coming off handoffs or while doing the PnR stuff. Not sure of the other guys you are thinking of when it comes to the "these guys actually did it".

There's a lot of talk about how Kon can get into the mid-range with his body, etc.—and I’m all for that. I’ve been saying throughout this draft cycle that guys can scale up. But we should remember we’re still talking about a theoritcal player . Take Kas vs. Kon in terms of shot creation and PnR. Kas was almost entirely self-created this year, and he was damn good + efficient at it. Yet Kon seems to get just as much, if not more, credit for what he might be able to do in those areas. Kas was in the 1st percentile for spot up volume, and while I think he can shoot well on catch-and-shoots, assuming he's as good as Kon there feels like a stretch, right?

And just to be clear, I’m not saying Kon doesn’t have potential. But when people talk about Kas, the focus is often on why his game won't translate because of X, Y, Z. That’s fine and a lot of those questions are fair. The issue is, you can’t even make those same criticisms about Kon because he didn’t attempt those things. So we end up with this overly optimistic view of theoretical Kon and a pessimistic view of actual Kas.
 
There's a lot of talk about how Kon can get into the mid-range with his body, etc.—and I’m all for that. I’ve been saying throughout this draft cycle that guys can scale up. But we should remember we’re still talking about a theoritcal player . Take Kas vs. Kon in terms of shot creation and PnR. Kas was almost entirely self-created this year, and he was damn good + efficient at it. Yet Kon seems to get just as much, if not more, credit for what he might be able to do in those areas. Kas was in the 1st percentile for spot up volume, and while I think he can shoot well on catch-and-shoots, assuming he's as good as Kon there feels like a stretch, right?
100%. I haven't really seen that too much out there.

And just to be clear, I’m not saying Kon doesn’t have potential. But when people talk about Kas, the focus is often on why his game won't translate because of X, Y, Z. That’s fine and a lot of those questions are fair. The issue is, you can’t even make those same criticisms about Kon because he didn’t attempt those things. So we end up with this overly optimistic view of theoretical Kon and a pessimistic view of actual Kas.
I don't think Kon can be as on ball as Kas. Part of my issue with Kas is the really high bar to be a primarily on ball guy. I think because Kon basically played the role you could expect him to have in the NBA and he was amazing at it... at a high level... I feel more comfortable that there is a good base to build from.

Kas is a conundrum for me. Maybe he can go off ball and excel at it... then the role is smaller and more digestible. My issue is with the folks that say "you can't take Kon at 5... we need to swing for the fences.... he has low upside...yada yada". Like automatically everything Kon does except shoot will disappear with increased length, strength, and size. Like we don't have guys getting into the middle and playing off two feet and drawing fouls that are having huge success right now.

We need to take Kon and then trade into the back half of the lotto and take Kas... and fill the earth with puke emojis.
 
Right... but he just didn't do it often because he wasn't really asked to... or maybe he wasn't good at it and that is why. I think all these guys have warts but Kon is "low upside" because of how he looks and that he has stubby arms.

Playing well with others is a feature... not a bug.

I'm also not discounting Tre... I think Kon and Tre belong in the same conversation... with Ace and VJ.

mate you're on drugs Kon is a slug who'll be Doug McDermott. He's not take a swing for a high level player type.
 
So underclassmen that are projected to go in the second round per tankathon:

- Thiero, Powell, Proctor, Yanic, RJ Luis

Last year there were 8 underclassmen picked in the second round.
In 2023 there were 11 underclassmen picked in the second round.
In 2022 there were 15 underclassmen picked in the second round.
 
100%. I haven't really seen that too much out there.


I don't think Kon can be as on ball as Kas. Part of my issue with Kas is the really high bar to be a primarily on ball guy. I think because Kon basically played the role you could expect him to have in the NBA and he was amazing at it... at a high level... I feel more comfortable that there is a good base to build from.

Kas is a conundrum for me. Maybe he can go off ball and excel at it... then the role is smaller and more digestible. My issue is with the folks that say "you can't take Kon at 5... we need to swing for the fences.... he has low upside...yada yada". Like automatically everything Kon does except shoot will disappear with increased length, strength, and size. Like we don't have guys getting into the middle and playing off two feet and drawing fouls that are having huge success right now.

We need to take Kon and then trade into the back half of the lotto and take Kas... and fill the earth with puke emojis.

Kas vs Kon is an interesting one to me. Partly because I'm taking over as the #1 Kas stan, but also because they seem to have similar concerns despite having very different games. I just see a lot of Kas criticism out there and a lot of hype about scaled up Kon and often from the same people. I get the impression that if Kon did more on ball creation—and did well like Kas—these same people would be also be fading Kon.

I'm definitely not that guy to say Kon has low potential though. It's totally possible he's better than Kas at these things, I just don't like viewing the theoretical thing is better than actual thing. I also reject the idea that you need to take a "swing" to hit on high potential. Being able to easily see a guy as an NBA player is definitely a better indicator than not. It's kind of the same issue. You get intrigued by what you don't see. I think people are enchanted by the idea of "high risk high reward, you need take a big swing". If that's how this worked, I'd be right with them, but I really don't think it does.
 
Kas vs Kon is an interesting one to me. Partly because I'm taking over as the #1 Kas stan, but also because they seem to have similar concerns despite having very different games. I just see a lot of Kas criticism out there and a lot of hype about scaled up Kon and often from the same people. I get the impression that if Kon did more on ball creation—and did well like Kas—these same people would be also be fading Kon.

I'm definitely not that guy to say Kon has low potential though. It's totally possible he's better than Kas at these things, I just don't like viewing the theoretical thing is better than actual thing. I also reject the idea that you need to take a "swing" to hit on high potential. Being able to easily see a guy as an NBA player is definitely a better indicator than not. It's kind of the same issue. You get intrigued by what you don't see. I think people are enchanted by the idea of "high risk high reward, you need take a big swing". If that's how this worked, I'd be right with them, but I really don't think it does.
There is just this weird thought that because we don't have the primary guy yet, and we may have whiffed the last couple years... that we must swing on a guy that can be a number 1. We need some runners on base and don't have to force a big swing. I also don't think Tre is a big swing and has very similar reasonable ceiling outcomes as Kon.
 
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