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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

KqWIN said:
Drafting a wing who isn't good at shooting or defense is probably not a good idea in the first place, but Riley has a lot of areas where he has potential and could improve. Nothing good yet, but seems to be a high feel guy at least.

I've struggled to find comparisons to him as a prospect or as a pro. All around wing sound nice, but who even is an all around wing that isn't a star? Rui? Tobias? Levert?
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I mean, he's pretty good at scoring at the rim as evidence by the graph someone posted earlier where he has one of the higher rim% and finishing %'s.

I think Levert is a solid comp. Physically he's fairly identical to Hayward, just a bit taller and skinnier, but Im not sure how much Hayward weighed after his Freshman year at Butler.

The main reason I was out on him early is because everything I read about him was that he was just a gunner, and his shot looks legitimately awful sometimes with his lower body flailing and arm flick thing he does like he's willing to the ball to the rim. In the back half of the conference schedule he really improved his playmaking to be pretty tantalizing for a guy his size to go along with his off-ball ability. I really like his pacing in the PNR. When you get a guy his height who can manipulate the defense at his own pace, you can get a ton of easy looks, especially for a guy like Kessler. That's kind of why I see some Joe Ingles in his game. I think he would have been an excellent prospect under Snyder with the way Snyder excelled at teaching players to play in the PNR.

When you stack him up against Ace Bailey offensively, there's a lot to like about Riley over Bailey.

I dont think his defense is Sensabaugh's level bad as a prospect, but the extremely low stocks are concerning.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Here are the adjusted for SOS numbers. This makes a huge difference for a few of the prospects, specifically Tre Johnson. I don't remember Tre missing any games, so it is confusing to me why his strength of schedule was so different on/off the court?

View attachment 18825
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These Ace Bailey On/Off numbers definitely fly in the face of the idea that he was just an empty calories player.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I mean, he's pretty good at scoring at the rim as evidence by the graph someone posted earlier where he has one of the higher rim% and finishing %'s.

I think Levert is a solid comp. Physically he's fairly identical to Hayward, just a bit taller and skinnier, but Im not sure how much Hayward weighed after his Freshman year at Butler.

The main reason I was out on him early is because everything I read about him was that he was just a gunner, and his shot looks legitimately awful sometimes with his lower body flailing and arm flick thing he does like he's willing to the ball to the rim. In the back half of the conference schedule he really improved his playmaking to be pretty tantalizing for a guy his size to go along with his off-ball ability. I really like his pacing in the PNR. When you get a guy his height who can manipulate the defense at his own pace, you can get a ton of easy looks, especially for a guy like Kessler. That's kind of why I see some Joe Ingles in his game. I think he would have been an excellent prospect under Snyder with the way Snyder excelled at teaching players to play in the PNR.

When you stack him up against Ace Bailey offensively, there's a lot to like about Riley over Bailey.

I dont think his defense is Sensabaugh's level bad as a prospect, but the extremely low stocks are concerning.
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I can kinda see him as a Walmart version of Hayward. Maybe that means he’s Rodney Hood without anxiety issues, but he needs some kind of large immediate jump that will get him on the court. Path to contributing is his so hard if you can’t shoot or defend.
 
KqWIN said:
Drafting a wing who isn't good at shooting or defense is probably not a good idea in the first place, but Riley has a lot of areas where he has potential and could improve. Nothing good yet, but seems to be a high feel guy at least.

I've struggled to find comparisons to him as a prospect or as a pro. All around wing sound nice, but who even is an all around wing that isn't a star? Rui? Tobias? Levert?
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If he fills out and becomes a solid shooter, maybe Cam Johnson.
 
Which players had as bad of a steal rate as Will Riley plus as bad of a block rate and as bad as general defensive performance and turned out well.

The returns on Cody Williams after his horrific defensive season in college have not been good and Riley might somehow have been worse on defense in college. At the very least, his arms are much shorter.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
These Ace Bailey On/Off numbers definitely fly in the face of the idea that he was just an empty calories player.
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The rest of the team is pretty bad. Ace is one of the tallest on the roster and the best rim protector on the team (according to block numbers). If you have Ace holding it down as the best big on the roster, the roster is pretty horrific. That is why I am not sure if the rebounding numbers are real. He won't get as many with an actual decent big on the floor. I don't know how good Sommerville was for Rutgers but the numbers don't look good for him and he only player 20 minutes a game.

I only mention this to point out that on/off numbers are tricky to interpret.
 
Do I have to believe Kas can become an on ball creator in the NBA to see his value?

Im looking at him vs Kon and I struggle to see where he clearly beats Kon... unless I predict that one can operate as an offensive engine and the other cant.

But I dont think either one can.
 
HermanG said:
Do I have to believe Kas can become an on ball creator in the NBA to see his value?

Im looking at him vs Kon and I struggle to see where he clearly beats Kon... unless I predict that one can operate as an offensive engine and the other cant.

But I dont think either one can.
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We don’t really know what Kas looks like in a scaled down role because he’s one of the highest self creating players in the draft. But generally it’s easy to scale back than to scale up (though both happen) and he has a lot of great role player intangibles. I don’t think you’re wrong that Kon looks better if we’re not considering either an offensive engine. Kon as he is ahead of theoretical scaled back Kas, but I don’t really see Kas as worthless in a scaled down role.

But the advantage Kas has is that his offensive engine stuff isn’t all theoretical and he actually performed well in that role. You may not believe much in either’s ability to be a leading ball handler, but one guy actually did it which would be the argument for Kas. Would be hard to argue that Kon has proven more as an initiator.

I think both guys will play more like the other at the next level.
 
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The main thing I’ve changed my opinion on in the last few days is that I’m more inclined to trade up for VJ than Harper. Haven’t put VJ ahead of Harper, but I the cost benefit analysis makes me lead towards trading for #3.

So far I’ve done a ton of condensed game watching and more recently diving deep into the stats word. Both of those areas are super favorable to VJ, so I’m probably a bit biased rn. As the draft gets closer I’ll have to switch over to full games and see if that holds. I have a feeling that full game film is not going to be as kind to VJ.
 
KqWIN said:
We don’t really know what Kas looks like in a scaled down role because he’s one of the highest self creating players in the draft. But generally it’s easy to scale back than to scale up (though both happen) and he has a lot of great role player intangibles. I don’t think you’re wrong that Kon looks better if we’re not considering either an offensive engine. Kon as he is ahead of theoretical scaled back Kas, but I don’t really see Kas as worthless in a scaled down role.

But the advantage Kas has is that his offensive engine stuff isn’t all theoretical and he actually performed well in that role. You may not believe much in either’s ability to be a leading ball handler, but one guy actually did it which would be the argument for Kas. Would be hard to argue that Kon has proven more as an initiator.

I think both guys will play more like the other at the next level.
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Thanks.

I'm also seeing he ranked 5th in all of college basketball for total turnovers. Any chance you can detail where those came from a bit? Was it heavy on passing, getting stripped, travelling, offensive fouling or even across the board?
 
KqWIN said:
The main thing I’ve changed my opinion on in the last few days is that I’m more inclined to trade up for VJ than Harper. Haven’t put VJ ahead of Harper, but I the cost benefit analysis makes me lead towards trading for #3.

So far I’ve done a ton of condensed game watching and more recently diving deep into the stats word. Both of those areas are super favorable to VJ, so I’m probably a bit biased rn. As the draft gets closer I’ll have to switch over to full games and see if that holds. I have a feeling that full game film is not going to be as kind to VJ.
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Harper will be all NBA VJ is like the Thompson twins but smaller and less skilled
 
HermanG said:
Thanks.

I'm also seeing he ranked 5th in all of college basketball for total turnovers. Any chance you can detail where those came from a bit? Was it heavy on passing, getting stripped, travelling, offensive fouling or even across the board?
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It’s hard to compare turnovers, but I’d say he has two things that stand out compared to others.

1) High risk, high reward passing. I would likeness his passing to a big time shot maker, which is both good and bad. You don’t want him relying on this stuff too much, but I think the ability to attempt and convert on these tougher passes is generally a positive indicator of his skill. He throws a ton of killer passes through defenders…but not all of them make it through.

2) His handle is not as tight as it needs to be. He can get loose with the ball and needs to turn his back too often. It’s not as bad as Demin, but not nearly as good as Fears. He’s also a very physical offensive player and seeks out contact. This is what allows him to be a free throw merchant, but it also leads to some bad turnovers where his handle isn’t enough to withstand all the weird flopping and contact he’s creating. I am NOT comparing him to Luka as a total player, but you know how Luka sometimes looks like he’s barely able to keep possession of the ball while foul baiting? Kas is kinda like that. He’s not like a Chris Paul or Shai who have the ball on a string.
 
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