Jazz vs. Mavs in round one

[SoberasHotRod]

Same vibe I get. I think the Jazz should win this series even if Luka was healthy. They should definitely win now that Luka is hurt....but nothing about this team's performance makes sense. Can't trust them to perform, especially when it matters most.

This is where I'm at. I'm definitely not making any predictions, or going to get too high of expectations.

I remember thinking we had the clear coaching advantage vs Denver, thought the same thing last year vs the Clippers. If Quin can't out coach Kidd, I'm not sure what to say.

 

[KqWIN]

This is where I'm at. I'm definitely not making any predictions, or going to get too high of expectations.

I remember thinking we had the clear coaching advantage vs Denver, thought the same thing last year vs the Clippers. If Quin can't out coach Kidd, I'm not sure what to say.

I thought the same thing with DEN. I actually thought they were the perfect matchup for us too...and they were and they weren't. Then last year it looked like we had a clear path to the finals. We were Vegas favorites to win it all, and I didn't disagree....but we know how that ended up. I can't even bother to deep dive into this series. It seems obvious that the Jazz should take this one....but I'm not going to trap myself into that thinking again.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

When Luka starts doing individual on-court work, he'll still be 8+ days away from coming back. He needs to start running and then be cleared for contact and practicing full speed. I think he's going to be out through Game 4, at least. He could easily miss the entire series. Jazz should really be up 3-1 after 4 games.

I think he misses 2-3 games at the most. Part of it will depend on where the series is. Game 1 is super important… they win that he can let it heal and they can try and steal 1 out of 2 with no pressure.

Probably too simplistic but I think if Dallas pulls out game 1 they will win the series.

Which makes it a Must. Win. Game.

 

[Release the Kraken]

Since 2000, the Jazz in the first round: 36-41...and 10-25 in the second round.

So, we're slightly worse than average in first-round games (though 6-2 in that 4/5 match-up) and terrible in the semifinals.

Make of this what you will.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think he misses 2-3 games at the most. Part of it will depend on where the series is. Game 1 is super important… they win that he can let it heal and they can try and steal 1 out of 2 with no pressure.

Probably too simplistic but I think if Dallas pulls out game 1 they will win the series.

Which makes it a Must. Win. Game.

Yeah, I think the Jazz should win this series in 5 games before Luka even shows up. Right now, Luka is sitting on an exercise bike and putting light pressure on his leg. He's not doing anything on the court. There's no chance he's available for Games 1 and 2, it's almost certain he'll be out for Game 3, and he'd have to really rush things to be back for Game 4. The injury is real.

It doesn't matter what the status of the series is, Luka is going to be out a while.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Lol at Dallas fans thinking riding the bike is a good sign it literally means nothing. Let me know when he tries to run off of it and such.

 

[MT Steve]

I wish Luka was healthy.

The way I view it is - if we're a title contender, we should be able to beat them anyways. If we're not a title contender, then there's really no potential for accomplishing anything meaningful in this postseason - we beat the Mavs without Luka and then get crushed by the Suns, whoohoo.

Beating the Mavs with Luka would've been kinda cool.

 

[Jingled]

I will be absolutely shocked if Luka misses the entire series. I bet he's back by game 3 or 4.

 

[Brsn]

I wish Luka was healthy.

The way I view it is - if we're a title contender, we should be able to beat them anyways. If we're not a title contender, then there's really no potential for accomplishing anything meaningful in this postseason - we beat the Mavs without Luka and then get crushed by the Suns, whoohoo.

Beating the Mavs with Luka would've been kinda cool.

I kind of agree. But I also think beating a short handed mavs team might boost our confidence and help with this mental slump were in.

 

[LogGrad98]

The last few games we've played at full strength or very near against teams with hobbled or missing stars we built double-digit leads just to have our now-standard meltdown in the 4th. This has been so consistent you can almost call the time in the game when it all turns to ****. And the things they have been saying to the media, particularly DM and Snyder, inspire the opposite of confidence that they know what to do about it.

Snyder says it's all part of the system, trust the system, the system is love, the system is life. DM says, hey I just have to shoot those really tough shots harder, and more of'em!

I have a really hard time believing this will be solved just because the playoffs start. I think we lose in 5 or 6.

I think there's an outside chance of DM going nuclear and us stealing the series, but I think the likelier scenario is we melt down in this series as we have been prone to do for the last 30 games. We've done it enough that it could be called a textbook definition "habit". And habits are tough to break when you are dead set against doing anything different. And from Quin I'm not expecting anything different.

Neither is any other team we'll play. They all know what we are going to do and they all know the meltdown is coming. They know a little double-team action on Mitchell will get him to jack up bad shots, and they know Quin won't make any adjustments if they get some different looks out there.

We've become too predictable and our vaunted offense isn't like the Stockton and Malone pick and roll, where even though you knew it was coming you had a devil of a time stopping it. No, the word is out on how to stop up. I'm feeling like this loss is just inevitable.

I sure hope I'm wrong though. I want nothing more than for this iteration of the jazz to win that ring. So I'm rooting for the win!

Just not betting on it.

 

[Release the Kraken]

I wish Luka was healthy.

The way I view it is - if we're a title contender, we should be able to beat them anyways. If we're not a title contender, then there's really no potential for accomplishing anything meaningful in this postseason - we beat the Mavs without Luka and then get crushed by the Suns, whoohoo.

Beating the Mavs with Luka would've been kinda cool.

Well your version makes a better movie but it is a war of attrition after all. Every championship team had to have a few favorable breaks along the way. Right now we’re a broken team, I mean everybody from Snyder to Mitchell to Gobert has got some serious scar tissue from trying to answer the unanswerable. We’re like the laughing stock of the league with these meltdowns and he said, she said

This is a free meal baby! I say hop on it get strong, grow some fangs and show these dime store critics and fair weather paparazzi what we’re really made of!

 

[SoberasHotRod]

This will be Quin's 6th straight playoffs, which is apparently the longest streak in the Western Conference. He's generally done a good job with a lot of preparation time to come up with a good game plan. We typically come out fairly strong and look good at the start of the series.

Specifically in the last two playoffs, Quin's issue has been his lack of being able to counter to an opponent's adjustments.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, I think the Jazz should win this series in 5 games before Luka even shows up. Right now, Luka is sitting on an exercise bike and putting light pressure on his leg. He's not doing anything on the court. There's no chance he's available for Games 1 and 2, it's almost certain he'll be out for Game 3, and he'd have to really rush things to be back for Game 4. The injury is real.

It doesn't matter what the status of the series is, Luka is going to be out a while.

The things you are saying are not facts at all. I heard Jeff Stotts, the in street clothes guy, say he wouldn’t be surprised to see Luka in game 2 if it was on Tuesday… the podcast was recorded yesterday so he didn’t have the schedule.

Here is what will happen… if we are up 2-0 Luka comes back for game 3. If they get the split they wait for game 4.

We know nothing of the grade or placement of the injury. He may get to a place where he is good enough to try it and it is now or never.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I wish Luka was healthy.

The way I view it is - if we're a title contender, we should be able to beat them anyways. If we're not a title contender, then there's really no potential for accomplishing anything meaningful in this postseason - we beat the Mavs without Luka and then get crushed by the Suns, whoohoo.

Beating the Mavs with Luka would've been kinda cool.

There is also going to be BS from the local media and organization that “hey they made the second round… they didn’t take a step back and they lost to the eventual champion… they are contenders!!!”

You never know what can happen so maybe we catch some extreme health luck and restore confidence but it sure looks like delaying the inevitable.

Also you forgot the most important thing… more playoff games means more money for Ryan… maybe we can save a couple seconds with some extra playoff dough!!!! Let the good times rolllllllll!!!!

 

[LifeOnaPlate]

yeah i don't care what he says, this one is different., They can cater to him all they like, calf strains are no joke. I had a very mild one and i couldn't do impact exercise for a month

It looked like such a basic move, too, like guys run off their leg like that all the time, and it got injured? How???

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The things you are saying are not facts at all. I heard Jeff Stotts, the in street clothes guy, say he wouldn’t be surprised to see Luka in game 2 if it was on Tuesday… the podcast was recorded yesterday so he didn’t have the schedule.

Luka isn't putting weight on the calf and isn't cleared for on-court activity, let alone running and contact. Not sure what Jeff Stotts said, but this doesn't appear to be a very minor calf strain. I'd be very surprised if he's back a week from now, which is Game 3. If he is back that soon, it's because he's rushing to come back, and he won't be 100% or close to it.

Ryan will make more money by winning the series and securing a 2nd-round appearance.

 

[KqWIN]

There is also going to be BS from the local media and organization that “hey they made the second round… they didn’t take a step back and they lost to the eventual champion… they are contenders!!!”

You never know what can happen so maybe we catch some extreme health luck and restore confidence but it sure looks like delaying the inevitable.

Also you forgot the most important thing… more playoff games means more money for Ryan… maybe we can save a couple seconds with some extra playoff dough!!!! Let the good times rolllllllll!!!!

View attachment 11948

If it restores confidence in Mitchell+Gobert to play at least one more year together, that would be fantastic. Maybe the FO would have enough motivation to address the glaring and obvious flaws....but I could be wrong. The flaws couldn't be more obvious, and yet their solution was Miye Oni one year and 35 year old Rudy Gay the next.

 

[Jingled]

If it is just a grade strain, there's probably a good chance he's back by game 3 or 4.


View: https://twitter.com/3cbPerformance/status/1514309450030481411

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Luka isn't putting weight on the calf and isn't cleared for on-court activity, let alone running and contact. Not sure what Jeff Stotts said, but this doesn't appear to be a very minor calf strain. I'd be very surprised if he's back a week from now, which is Game 3. If he is back that soon, it's because he's rushing to come back, and he won't be 100% or close to it.

Ryan will make more money by winning the series and securing a 2nd-round appearance.

You don’t know if he’s putting weight on it. We have no idea what he is doing other than 10 second clips here and there. Him working out is a way to load the muscle without putting weight through it. He will have to hit certain milestones but I highly doubt he should be doing on court stuff a couple days after the injury. I could see them having him do on court activities a day before and then declaring him good to go.

Stotts basically said if game two is on Tuesday he wouldn’t be surprised to see him play… I’m guessing that means he thinks it’s likely by next Thursday. 11 days doesn’t seem majorly aggressive when you consider his age and that the 16 day average has a lot of regular season conservativeness built into it. If they are down 2-0 he comes back for game 3… if it’s 1-1 he waits for game 4 is my guess. The need to avoid losing hope… if they are down 3-0 it’s pretty hopeless… if they bring him back early and it gets aggravated then they lose hope.

I’d be shocked if we won 4-1 or 4-0… I’ll just put it that way.

 

[Jingled]

Another thing to keep in mind, teams don't allow the media to watch an entire practice...they usually allow them in for the last few minutes of practice or after the practice is over and guys are still on the court getting extra work in. These little 5 second clips of Luka on a stationary bike going around social media don't tell the whole story. We have no idea what he's doing behind the scenes, or whether or not he's putting any weight on his calf.