Official Public Declaration of Exums Future

[sepulchre]

I am shocked.

Exum and all-star? Oh, what is going on here? I have never seen such a overhyped guy in Jazz uniform. And this guy is having the worst rookie season in NBA history who played 20 minutes or more. Wow.
Mods should delete this thread or move this thread to a place where access to this thread is not allowed. Really, I hope other fans won't see this thread. It is embarrassing.

 

[RJF]

19 years old playing in the NBA rather than players his age and closer to his current skill level. As he gets better, which he undoubtedly will, his confidence will grow. Again, 19!

 

[nateboz]

Some people need to understand that being elite at defense might be all he needs to be, well Elite. He just needs about 15 pounds and a tighter handle and he'll put up points too. I believe in Snyder and Snyder believes in Exum.

 

[Flc]

Couple of pro-Exum thoughts:

1) PG is the hardest position in the NBA to learn.

2) Summer is the biggest time for development, particularly when it comes to strength and conditioning.

3) Exceptional PGs usually see moderate growth between year 1 and 2, and a major growth spurt between year 2 and year 3. That's one of the reasons I was surprised by what seemed like a regression from Trey earlier in the year.

4) Having very strong PG defense is almost as important, if not as important, as having strong rim protection. Being able to guard and recover quickly of the PNR is a major, major asset when it comes to shutting down an opposing team's offense.

To sum up: if Exum is going to be a superstar, we'll likely see him begin to dominate next year and completely dominate in year three. If he's going to be an all star, we'll likely see him show far more flashes next year but really turn the corner in year three. And if next year looks remarkably similar to this year in terms of his strength, conditioning, and overall effectiveness, we can start to be worried.

For what it's worth, I think he'll be at minimum, a perennial All Star and has a very real shot at being a superstar. He's unselfish, fast, and really, really ****ing smart. When his body and shot catches up with his brain - watch out.

 

[jope]

unlike Rubio, he can shoot and get to the line at will

Exum -- 35%/31%/62% ..... 0.5 fta/game

Rubio -- 37%/32%/84% ..... 3.3 fta/game

 

[jope]

19 years old playing in the NBA rather than players his age and closer to his current skill level. As he gets better, which he undoubtedly will, his confidence will grow. Again, 19!

i've posted this in several threads, but i'll beat the dead horse .....
if we are to use him being 19 as the instigator of his shortcomings, lets just compare him to all the other 19-year-old or younger rookies over the last few decades....
there have been 92 other rookies 19 or younger, and Dante ranks very near the bottom of almost every statistical category among them .....
and at 5.3pts/1.7reb/2.9ast on 32% shooting in 27 mins as a starter this year....
he is statistically, by far, the worst starting pg in the NBA, and he could very well be one of the worst starting PGs in NBA history.

He's not the only NBA player to ever play at 19 years old. Hell, Favors and Kanter were both 19 year old rookies, and both nearly tripled his efficiency as indicated by advanced metrics, (and Kanter had barely ever played basketball at that point).

He is too mentally fragile to be a star. Just look at the transformation he's had even from summer league to now. He took a couple mediore falls, and now he rarely even crosses the 3pt plane, let alone penetrates the paint. He is scared, and the longer this puppy-dog mentality persists, the farther his ceiling drops, which was what he was drafted for in the first place.

can barely dribble (a pg that cant dribble... what?), cant shoot, refuses to use the talents he has (speed, height), etc. etc. he has a long way to go to even break the mold of "average starter". until his demeanor changes, that's where i'm putting him.

 

[fishonjazz]

get to the line at will.

Surely you jest

 

[zman1527]

Couple of pro-Exum thoughts:

1) PG is the hardest position in the NBA to learn.

2) Summer is the biggest time for development, particularly when it comes to strength and conditioning.

3) Exceptional PGs usually see moderate growth between year 1 and 2, and a major growth spurt between year 2 and year 3. That's one of the reasons I was surprised by what seemed like a regression from Trey earlier in the year.

4) Having very strong PG defense is almost as important, if not as important, as having strong rim protection. Being able to guard and recover quickly of the PNR is a major, major asset when it comes to shutting down an opposing team's offense.

To sum up: if Exum is going to be a superstar, we'll likely see him begin to dominate next year and completely dominate in year three. If he's going to be an all star, we'll likely see him show far more flashes next year but really turn the corner in year three. And if next year looks remarkably similar to this year in terms of his strength, conditioning, and overall effectiveness, we can start to be worried.

For what it's worth, I think he'll be at minimum, a perennial All Star and has a very real shot at being a superstar. He's unselfish, fast, and really, really ****ing smart. When his body and shot catches up with his brain - watch out.

I like what you wrote and I want to believe. But does he have the mindset to take full advantage of his body? Does he have the heart and soul of a champion? If he does, you cannot see it right now.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

All Star-caliber player, averaging 16 pts, 8+ assists and top 8 in the league in steals. At least a second option on offense.

All NBA first or second defensive team.

 

[Flc]

I like what you wrote and I want to believe. But does he have the mindset to take full advantage of his body? Does he have the heart and soul of a champion? If he does, you cannot see it right now.

I think so. The kid is really, really, really smart. The game is moving way too fast for him at the moment and he's clearly hit the Rookie Wall, but you can tell that he has amazing Vision - not just court vision, but vision like top tier chess players have. It's only a matter of time before he can start deconstructing defenses.

My take on his 'lack of aggression' isn't a mindset issue, so much as a lack of strength. Hayward drove only a fraction of the times that he's doing this year as a result of increased strength. Give the kid a summer to get stronger and we'll see what next year looks like.

 

[Hotdog]

I think 90% of Dantes shortcomings right now are directly tied to his confidence level. He looks like he plays not to make mistakes. He might be a whole different looking player in a couple years when and if he gains the necessary amount of confidence to play in the league.

 

[framer]

Dante's the youngest point guard to ever play in the league, correct? There have been other 18 and 19 year olds, but none of them have played the point, let alone excelled at it. I think there is a lot of apples to oranges going on here. There's Levine, but he isn't really setting the world on fire either. . .

 

[b_line]

Dante's the youngest point guard to ever play in the league, correct? There have been other 18 and 19 year olds, but none of them have played the point, let alone excelled at it. I think there is a lot of apples to oranges going on here. There's Levine, but he isn't really setting the world on fire either. . .

He has arguably been worse than exum

 

[The Blue Elephant]

Dante's the youngest point guard to ever play in the league, correct? There have been other 18 and 19 year olds, but none of them have played the point, let alone excelled at it. I think there is a lot of apples to oranges going on here. There's Levine, but he isn't really setting the world on fire either. . .

Shaun Livingston, Sebastian Telfair, Monte Ellis, and Louis Williams were definitely younger than Dante when entering the NBA and played PG. All were drafted out of high school.

 

[jope]

Dante's the youngest point guard to ever play in the league, correct? There have been other 18 and 19 year olds, but none of them have played the point, let alone excelled at it. I think there is a lot of apples to oranges going on here. There's Levine, but he isn't really setting the world on fire either. . .

Shaun Livingston, Sebastian Telfair, Monte Ellis, and Louis Williams were definitely younger than Dante when entering the NBA and played PG. All were drafted out of high school.

And Exum is the worst performer of that group, with group lows in (per36) scoring, rebounding, fta, fg%,ts%, stl% and PER.


also, you forgot stephon marbury, kyrie irving, tony parker, jrue holiday, eric money, marquis teague, and zach lavine (all 19 in their rookie seasons)

 

[Flc]

And Exum is the worst performer of that group, with group lows in (per36) scoring, rebounding, fta, fg%,ts%, stl% and PER.


also, you forgot stephon marbury, kyrie irving, tony parker, jrue holiday, eric money, marquis teague, and zach lavine (all 19 in their rookie seasons)

I'm not sure per-36 is the best way to compare incredibly young players with drastically different minute totals in their rookie season.

 

[jope]

I'm not sure per-36 is the best way to compare incredibly young players with drastically different minute totals in their rookie season.

normalizing allows you to see rates, doing the best with the numbers we got. the fact that Dante looks like ****, while getting 26 mins a game doesn't really help his case.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Dante's the youngest point guard to ever play in the league, correct? There have been other 18 and 19 year olds, but none of them have played the point, let alone excelled at it. I think there is a lot of apples to oranges going on here. There's Levine, but he isn't really setting the world on fire either. . .

There is no way he is the youngest ever to play PG. Maybe youngest to ever start. There had to be people coming straight out of HS who were younger than Exum.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The thing that sucks about Exum is that he isn't trying new things ever. He has been playing the same for a while now without any noticeable signs of improvement. That is a bit worrisome. I'm never really excited to watch Exum play.

 

[JazzyFresh]

My ONLY concern is that he doesn't even try to drive the lane. Even at times when it's needed late in the shot clock. I personally think he's just too afraid to make mistakes on a team that's also trying to find itself. He can't really take to many chances because other guys out there need the ball in their hands at this juncture; and they deserve it more because they are further along in the building process. You can't really have one guy out there forcing things, taking the team out of it's rhythm when everyone needs work. Right now he's more or less just trying not to screw what they're building up. Hopefully next year he can start to take the reins a little bit more.

That being said, it does drive me nuts that he wont even take the risk at times.