Official Public Declaration of Exums Future

[sepulchre]

He's 19

Yes, that he is 19 is a big plus. He still has plenty of years, I agree. But I don't see any signs yet.

and kept a very quick and aggressive Ty Lawson from sniffing the paint early in that Denver game. He also seriously slowed down Parker for the Spurs in that game.

This is at best a description for "good", not "elite". Don't you people get it?
Elite means, if someone shows some skills which are rare, very rare. Defending other guards makes you a good player, not elite in the defensive game! Man, I don't understand how you people overrate a 19 years old boy so much.

Defense is not all about steals and rebounding (especially for a guard)

I didn't say it is all about steals and rebounding. I said, in addition to all the defensive side of a game, steals and/or rebounds make a guard elite. You must pay attention when and where you can use the word "elite". There are handful of guards who are elite when it comes to defense. You can't overvalue some no-name rookie like this.

Fortunately it is easier to teach a young guy to be a better offensive player than to make them better defensively, at least IMO. I see aggressiveness from him defensively and believe that will eventually transfer to the offensive end.

I always thought it is the opposite. I thought you can teach the defensive game but not the offensive side because teaching to shoot well and having a court vision (as a guard) can't be taught much. Yes, you can bring up your % a bit for shooting, but statistically you always swing between the same %. And having a court vision, making plays, being smart, dribbling in the paint and playing with big opponent guys like they were dogs, these things you can't teach. It must be a natural thing. But you can teach being more aggressive and attacking the rim, but for the rest good luck. He is a guard, he needs to shoot well and make plays. Not even a bit he has that.
Saying shallow things like "being an elite passer" is funny. Elite passing you can show how many times in a game, 2 or 3 times. A guard must know how to make plays first, make assists. The 2 or 3 elite passing for an open layup or dunk comes at last.

 

[stitches]

What's important for guards in defense, especially the ones guarding the pick and roll, is ability to stay with his man, ability to force the ballhandler in desired areas of the court without giving up an advantage, ability to disturb passing lanes and and shooting, as well as taking the opponent out of their preferred sets.

Nobody is saying he's elite now, but he's shown great promise in most of those and in a lot of the most important defensive categories he's already above average for the league(keeping in front of his man, points per shot allowed, etc). What he did with Parker a few games ago was masterful in the way he consistently forced him to the sides of the court, taking him out of sets as well as not giving much of anything in the pick and roll... Absolutely beautiful defensive performance. In offense it would have been the equivalent of going for a 20/10 game. I would say he has shown elite defensive potential without much hesitation to be honest. That doesn't mean he does it all the time, and it doesn't mean he's close to being a finished product there, but it means that even now you can see what he can be down the road.

This doesn't apply for his offensive game. Right now I honeslty have no idea what kind of offensive player he will be. Right now he's playing like Danny Green. In U19 competitions he was playing a slashing/scoring PG who was going to the line at will. I doubt anyone can tell you what kind of player he will be based on what he's shown so far.

And his defensive impact is not by far worth it because he isn't elite or something as I tried to describe.

Stats disagree with you...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2015/on-off/

He's the best from our regular rotation in +/-, and he's second behind Hayward in on/off. Those show that at the very least he's marginally positive for the team. The defense is 6.3pts/100 possessions better with him on the floor than without him. The offense is just slightly worse with him on the floor. The thing with his offense right now is... he doesn't do a lot, but he also doesn't screw things up a lot, so the overall effect is slightly negative. You might say that this is because of Quin matching him with Gordon and Gobert a lot, but that's not necessarily true if you check their stats - he's played about 40% of his minutes without Gobert and about 41% of his minutes without Hayward, so he must be doing something right on his own if he still keeps being on the + even without them...

 

[Douchebag K]

What's important for guards in defense, especially the ones guarding the pick and roll, is ability to stay with his man, ability to force the ballhandler in desired areas of the court without giving up an advantage, ability to disturb passing lanes and and shooting, as well as taking the opponent out of their preferred sets.

Nobody is saying he's elite now, but he's shown great promise in most of those and in a lot of the most important defensive categories he's already above average for the league(keeping in front of his man, points per shot allowed, etc). What he did with Parker a few games ago was masterful in the way he consistently forced him to the sides of the court, taking him out of sets as well as not giving much of anything in the pick and roll... Absolutely beautiful defensive performance. In offense it would have been the equivalent of going for a 20/10 game. I would say he has shown elite defensive potential without much hesitation to be honest. That doesn't mean he does it all the time, and it doesn't mean he's close to being a finished product there, but it means that even now you can see what he can be down the road.

This doesn't apply for his offensive game. Right now I honeslty have no idea what kind of offensive player he will be. Right now he's playing like Danny Green. In U19 competitions he was playing a slashing/scoring PG who was going to the line at will. I doubt anyone can tell you what kind of player he will be based on what he's shown so far.


Stats disagree with you...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2015/on-off/

He's the best from our regular rotation in +/-, and he's second behind Hayward in on/off. Those show that at the very least he's marginally positive for the team. The defense is 6.3pts/100 possessions better with him on the floor than without him. The offense is just slightly worse with him on the floor. The thing with his offense right now is... he doesn't do a lot, but he also doesn't screw things up a lot, so the overall effect is slightly negative. You might say that this is because of Quin matching him with Gordon and Gobert a lot, but that's not necessarily true if you check their stats - he's played about 40% of his minutes without Gobert and about 41% of his minutes without Hayward, so he must be doing something right on his own if he still keeps being on the + even without them...

lol but how can this be ?? He's the worst point guard in the history of the NBA .. like.. ever

 

[Peter Effin' Parker]

Valid points here.

Here's what I wonder - Am I crazy to think that maybe his play is by design? I could see Snyder saying something like "Bring the ball down the court, initiate the offense and hang out on the corners for the easy three, but otherwise get out of the way. Stay healthy, get used to the action and the speed of the game and look for easy shots. Your main focus this year is to learn how to play defense. Give it all you got on D and be conservative on O. This is a learning year for you and defense is your focus. Let the game come to you otherwise."

It's the only way to explain his behavior. You would think the coach's would be screaming at him to drive every once in a while - but they don't. And they keep playing him.



*Step 1 in the Exum for MVP campaign - Learn how to play defense and become a force on that side of the court. (In progress)
*Step 2 in the Exum for MVP campaign - Grow and build muscle.
*Step 3 in the Exum for MVP campaign - Use new muscle mass to survive driving into the paint without getting seriously injured and learn to finish effectively.
*Step 4 in the Exum for MVP campaign - Combine new offensive skills and aggression that matches new body with high level defense that was established with good habits rookie year.
*Step 5 in the Exum for MYP campaign - Win MVP

It's just that easy!

 

[Douchebag K]

I just listened to 3 interviews from this morning practice(I guess the journos made it a point to ask about Exum):


Q: What's the next step for Dante, is it just being more aggressive and confident?
Quin Snyder: I think, that's part of it. There are some skills, too, and some strength and some things that are real areas of improvement. Just his strength and his physicality... I think in the next year or two we are going to look at him and go "Wow! He's really grown physically" and I think the same is true about his ability to get in the paint and create and use his tools in a game situation.

ok .. hands up .. who really thinks they know better than Snyder about how he's handling and what he expects of Exum ???

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

ok .. hands up .. who really thinks they know better than Snyder about how he's handling and what he expects of Exum ???

Alright fine I'm backing off of the ledge... Did u know that QS can see the future with his weird eye? It's true.

 

[NAOS]

For the record, people who have advanced skills in interpreting phenomena of any given type see into the future all the time.

Q knows.

 

[splendidham]

Hi guys, long time lurker and aussie-exum homer so hope you don't mind me imposing. I like Exum a lot but have definitely been disappointed in his play. I often forget he's only 19 and coming from Aussie high school play which as you all know is a giant chasm behind U.S. High school school scene.
I have been surprised by his defence though so one thing to keep in mind.
Exum was quite lazy on defence in the past. He'd clearly take defence lightly in order to carry the offence. Now everyone has been saying how undone Exum looks. He constantly looks winded yada yada. So with the extra effort he's been putting into his D, as well as being around 5th in line in the offence whenever he's on the floor, would it really be surprising that he's limited himself to being a 3 and D guy at this point in his career. I wouldn't be surprised if it came under some instruction.
Also, I think you just need to take a look at some of the other Aussies playing around the league. Jingles plays less timid than Exum but he's much older. He still defers though. The other one is Bogut. He constantly deferred to others, so much so that in some circles he was nicknamed pube. He was just starting to come out of his shell before that horrific injury. He's somewhat reverted back now but has amazing defence to fall back on. Exum is still so young and I think you have the perfect coach to beat that timid ness out of him. But at the same time, I don't think coach Q has any plan to rush things with Exum.



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[Ron Mexico]

Because what makes you elite (as a guard, in defense) is your capability to make steals and to rebound. Yes, steals and rebounding. From elite guards I expect at least one of those things. This makes a guard elite, in addition to his defensive plays.

Lol,

Stockton averaged 2.2 steals per game and 2.7 rebounds per game. Those are not elite numbers. Chris Pauls career averages are higher in steals and much higher in rebounds than Stockton so is he a better defender? Is Chris Paul an elite defensive PG? Tony Allen averages half the steals and 1 less rebound a game than CP3 whos the better defender? Scottie Pippen only had 2 steals a game and 4 boards I guess he was not elite defender. His teamate Jordan was around the same number dont know how he ever won any defense awards. Bruce Bowen must have been awful at defense since he only averaged 0.8 steals and a lowly 2 rebounds a game.

Steals dont make you an elite defender, in fact the dont even make you a good defender. Half the time a player pokes the ball away someone else is getting the steal. If you pick off a pass usually its because you are not guarding the defender like you should be and are just gambling on playing the passing lane. This sometimes leads to a steal and more often leads to your guy being wide open.

 

[freakazoid]

I just listened to 3 interviews from this morning practice(I guess the journos made it a point to ask about Exum):


Q: What's the next step for Dante, is it just being more aggressive and confident?
Quin Snyder: I think, that's part of it. There are some skills, too, and some strength and some things that are real areas of improvement. Just his strength and his physicality... I think in the next year or two we are going to look at him and go "Wow! He's really grown physically" and I think the same is true about his ability to get in the paint and create and use his tools in a game situation.
----------
Q: What's the next step that Dante can take on that side of the ball(offensively)?
Gordon Hayward: I think, just being more aggressive. Knowing when to take his shots. [He] seems a little passive and that's pretty normal as a rookie, he's just out there playing to not mess up.He has to stop thinking and start attacking the basket, I mean he's athletic and long, he can really make plays around the rim... for himself and others. When he does that, he'll be really good."
---------
Q: What do you guys need from Dante on the offensive side of the ball?
Trey Burke: Just for him to be aggressive, you know... he's gonna go through some growing pains. It's the same thing everybody goes through. I went through it last season, so... a guy like him, we just need for him to be aggressive when he gets in the paint and use his length to be able to score over defenders, go to the line. I am sure he will become more aggressive.

I've already said this quite a few times, but I'm going to repeat myself now that Quin/Hayward have shared their opinions. Dante just made a huge jump in the type of competition he's facing. He's a 19 year old kid trying to fit in among men, and even though the NBA isn't what it was back during the Pistons bad boys era, it's still a very physical game, and NBA players can smell blood like a shark. 19 year old rookies are going to get tested if they drive to the rim. These guys who are knocking him around at the rim are much bigger and stronger than what he's used to, and regardless of what other 19 year olds have done in the past, it's completely reasonable for a teenager to be intimidated by such a situation. Give him a year or two to build his body and confidence, and there's going to be a whole lot of Jazz fans with egg on their face.
-
If he's afraid of getting smacked around and getting hurt, it's really not that unusual and only a minor concern IMO. However, even though I believe this has something to do with his allergy to the paint, I tend to believe Hayward hit the nail on the head. Dante is playing not to screw up, rather than playing to win. To me, this is also just a minor concern, as I think he'll be a completely different player once he feels more comfortable with his teammates.
-
At some point, Dante is going to have a breakout game offensively, as far as taking it to the rim, and I believe it will happen sooner than a lot of people think. If I had to guess, I'd put my money on this happening at a time when Hayward misses some games. Take Hayward out for a week or two, and I think Dante will be forced to take a more active role offensively.
-
My one big concern is his shooting/mid-range game. His improvement in this area will be the determining factor on whether he becomes good or great. Make no mistake about it though, his floor is still a good player. Anyone using the word bust is going to end up looking really stupid.
-
Finally, I have seen several people suggest that it's better if player chucks shamelessly than one who is timid offensively. Disagree with that completely. I'd much rather have a player that understands when he's having an off night and adjusts accordingly, than one that can miss 15 in a row, and yet convince himself that he's going to get hot any minute. Back in the day, I would have given a years worth of lunch money, if only for the chance to kick Jeff Malone square in the nads. I understand the frustration with the way Dante is playing now, but once this kid figures it out, I'd much rather have a self-aware player than a guy who jacks up brick after brick after brick.

 

[gregbroncs]

Lol,

Stockton averaged 2.2 steals per game and 2.7 rebounds per game. Those are not elite numbers. Chris Pauls career averages are higher in steals and much higher in rebounds than Stockton so is he a better defender? Is Chris Paul an elite defensive PG? Tony Allen averages half the steals and 1 less rebound a game than CP3 whos the better defender? Scottie Pippen only had 2 steals a game and 4 boards I guess he was not elite defender. His teamate Jordan was around the same number dont know how he ever won any defense awards. Bruce Bowen must have been awful at defense since he only averaged 0.8 steals and a lowly 2 rebounds a game.

Steals dont make you an elite defender, in fact the dont even make you a good defender. Half the time a player pokes the ball away someone else is getting the steal. If you pick off a pass usually its because you are not guarding the defender like you should be and are just gambling on playing the passing lane. This sometimes leads to a steal and more often leads to your guy being wide open.

Exactly. Everybody argued how good Ronnie Brewer was on defense but the guy was horrible at it. Constantly leaving his guy wide open to try for steals. I don't care how many rebounds and steals guards get. I care how they effect the opponents ability to score. And to me Exum is already above average at that. He's also far better at it that Trey. I hope his offense develops but regardless his defense is already quite good with room to improve.

 

[zman1527]

Exactly. Everybody argued how good Ronnie Brewer was on defense but the guy was horrible at it. Constantly leaving his guy wide open to try for steals. I don't care how many rebounds and steals guards get. I care how they effect the opponents ability to score. And to me Exum is already above average at that. He's also far better at it that Trey. I hope his offense develops but regardless his defense is already quite good with room to improve.

When the Jazz last played the Spurs, a few times Dante was picking up TP on defense near midcourt. Now, normally guys who try doing that get blown by and look like fools. Dante controlled him and stayed with him no problem. I have never seen one of our PG able to do that.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Did somebody just try to argue Stockton wasn't elite in terms of steals?

 

[Ron Mexico]

Exum is going to be an all-star in 3 years or less.

When he finally has a play called for him and tries to drive he gets in the paint with ease and makes great passes. His three point shot when his feet are set is starting to get reliable. He is going to get stronger and more explosive the next few years and he is going to be scoring in the paint with ease. Despite a few mistakes here and there his defense is already one of the best in the league at PG. Even when he makes mistakes on defense his speed and length help him recover so fast, kind of like Gobert. Confidence is growing for him. His frustration is growing for him at times as well but next season he will be stronger have the plays down and the coaching staff will start to let loose his leash.

 

[Jazzyy]

All I got to say is that if Exum works hard he will be good. We just need to have patience and wait 2 years and Exum will be amazing. He has the right coach to give him confidence and the skills to succeed we just have to wait now and let Snyder and Exum do work.


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[mrob]

Just watched a video of Andrew Wiggins' 30-point performance on his 20th birthday. I have no idea what Exum will end up being, but he's certainly not that. What I do know is that he is going to have every opportunity to be the best player he can be on the Jazz. Can't really ask for much more than that.

 

[Dumb Bloke]

Just watched a video of Andrew Wiggins' 30-point performance on his 20th birthday. I have no idea what Exum will end up being, but he's certainly not that. What I do know is that he is going to have every opportunity to be the best player he can be on the Jazz. Can't really ask for much more than that.

Whoa back off warchild. Not only will Exum lead the league assisting to Gobert in the most dynamic pick and roll combo, he'll also challenge Stockton's all time record and we'll erect two more statues in 20 years.

 

[Getting Traded]

I think some of his timidness has to do with Quin who seems to be managing him carefully. You notice how during the ends of quarters when they play for one shot, he immediately hands off to Hayward, Ingles, Hood, or Burke. So, he's not even running the team, and that's by design. Of course, you also see Quin barking at him when he has an obvious lane to the hoop and he doesn't take it.

 

[Lakers_Slapper]

I think some of his timidness has to do with Quin who seems to be managing him carefully. You notice how during the ends of quarters when they play for one shot, he immediately hands off to Hayward, Ingles, Hood, or Burke. So, he's not even running the team, and that's by design. Of course, you also see Quin barking at him when he has an obvious lane to the hoop and he doesn't take it.

I think there is a lot that is going on, and wanted to touch on something you said. When you mentioned Quin barking at Exum because of him not driving a lane. That is something that I have witnessed far too often at the games I have attended. I don't get to go to a lot of games, none the less, see a lot of games because I live in Las Vegas and for the majority they televise west coast teams. However my job has sent me to about 10 games this year to the team of my choice. I have chose the Jazz every time because I am from there and I have family in Utah. My point is that every time I go to a game I sit behind the Jazz bench. And every time I hear Quin ripping into players constantly. One of the games I went to the Coach from the opposing team looked at Quin, shook his head in disappointment as he walked back to his bench in disgust for how he was ripping into the team. I understand that coaches can sometimes be hard, but it almost seems like Quin is (at times) borderline abusive. I have liked Quin at times, and I try to be supportive, but I think that he has to learn how to be patient. I know I am going to get a lot of hate for this post, but its just what I have witnessed.

 

[gregbroncs]

I think there is a lot that is going on, and wanted to touch on something you said. When you mentioned Quin barking at Exum because of him not driving a lane. That is something that I have witnessed far too often at the games I have attended. I don't get to go to a lot of games, none the less, see a lot of games because I live in Las Vegas and for the majority they televise west coast teams. However my job has sent me to about 10 games this year to the team of my choice. I have chose the Jazz every time because I am from there and I have family in Utah. My point is that every time I go to a game I sit behind the Jazz bench. And every time I hear Quin ripping into players constantly. One of the games I went to the Coach from the opposing team looked at Quin, shook his head in disappointment as he walked back to his bench in disgust for how he was ripping into the team. I understand that coaches can sometimes be hard, but it almost seems like Quin is (at times) borderline abusive. I have liked Quin at times, and I try to be supportive, but I think that he has to learn how to be patient. I know I am going to get a lot of hate for this post, but its just what I have witnessed.

Yet the players play hard for him and I have seen nothing that says they don't respect and like him. And players from his last team seemed to love him (I know he was just an assistant, it's different).